I didn't know where you were located, but I googled it, and this is from his biography.
Representing the nation’s largest military district,
I would have thought Connolly in 11 was larger, and I can tell you in No VA. it is insanely competitive for 2 reasons.
1. Many military kids
2. Close distance to USNA.
I would think Hampton Roads would be like 11. You will have many military brats and they will apply for every MOC too. Additionally you have kids growing up near a base and living in awe since they were 6.
The Sen. MOCs are not going to want the majority of the noms only coming from 11 and 2. They will want to share the wealth across the state. It is not uncommon for them to have hundreds and hundreds of applicants for any MOC. I believe I read here several yrs ago that Connolly alone had over 350. I do not know if that was for the 4, or just 1 SA, but even so it meant only 9% got a nom from the pool. If you extrapolate that number and add in all VA districts, it is probably close to 750-1000 for all 4 SAs for the Sens.
Yet, again in total, they can only nom 10 candidates per slate. If both Sens have 2 charges available, the total would be still @15%. (4 X x 2 Sen Kaine, 80 noms, and 4 X 2 Sen Warner). It would be unusual that both have 2 charges available for 1 yr. Best to go on the premise they have 1. That means 80 candidates between the 2 will get a nom.
By talking and not duplicating any name at all they allow more candidates to have at least 1X shot.
VA is not the only state to do this. NY, CA, and TX also tell applicants that if you get a nom from one source don't expect us to award you a nom. Many times there are cadets that get 2. I believe PA, CO and FL also talk and spread the wealth.
In the end this is why ranking the SA needs to be thought of long and hard for a state lie VA. If USNA is ranking higher than the AF, i.e. AFA is his 2nd choice, but he tries gaming it with all 3 by placing AFA on 1 and USNA on 2 of them, than he better be happy with the AFA if that is his only nom.
I would also contact Rigell to see if they do Principal. I know Cantor does. If they do, than that also should be placed into your decision on how to rank it out.
Hope that helps.