JAM,
Here's the logic. If they met their quota for Class of 13 and 14, but this yr they offer more 2 and 3 yr scholarships to save money, that means Class of 13 and 14 will be bulging.
They will all come on line at the exact same time as a Company Grade officer. Now, because there are specific ratios as I have mentioned, it could place an imbalance in the ratio, especially if the previous yr groups are not voluntarily leaving when their commitment is up. That is what causes the need for a RIF in certain yr groups.
Sometimes, the RIF doesn't even occur, instead, the military will cut them loose prior to commissioning because they see from a manpower POV that they are too heavy in that yr.
Why do promotion rates vary? Manpower! Why do you wait to pin on? Manpower! An O3 can not be promoted (not talking frocking...actual pay) until the Field grade is in balance from a ratio standpoint with Company grade. Why do they slow down/speed up promotion boards? Manpower ratios.
This ratio also goes down to the level of O3 to O2 to O1. Bring too many on line in 13 and 14, means the 02 to 01 ratio is off kilter. Thus, if you expand the 2,3 while decreasing the 4, they will jeopardize their manpower ratios.
I hope that explains why increasing 2 and 3 scholarships could not be the route they are going.
Conversely, they may say we need more for 13, and 14 to keep the ratio, thus they will increase that number.
This is a very difficult topic for people who have no military background/affiliation to understand. To many they have yet to comprehend that the military is like any other corporation. They do strategic planning regarding their personnel. That includes, assuming from historical data X% will leave as soon as possible. However, they cannot predict when a war will occur or foresee the economy contracting. Both of these issues impact the military severely. When the economy contracts members stay because a paycheck is better than no paycheck. This causes a problem in the ratio. That means they need to re-work their plans.
Many times it could mean fewer ROTC scholarships, or it could be as drastic as the AF by saying we have canceled OTC for a fiscal yr, released ROTC scholarship students months before graduation AND a RIF. Not saying that is what is occurring in the Army, just illustrating why/how this may occur.
Yes. That happened last year. This does not equate with a RIF, downsizing or the need for fewer officers.
If they are offering less 3 yr...YES, it does equate with downsizing or the need for fewer officers. They are saying in a very quiet voice, that from a manpower standpoint the INN is almost FULL!
RIF's are not going to occur in the scholarship world, that is an AD issue.