Where Will the Lt's of Tomorrow Be?

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by sg1fan93, Jan 20, 2011.

  1. sg1fan93

    sg1fan93 Member

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    Hello all,
    Given that the main bulk of U.S. forces has already pulled out og Iraq, and the withdrawl of troops from Afghanistan is slated to begin in 2014, where do you all forsee the next big deployment zone will be, or will we remain in place? Obviously Korea, but anyone else have any other theories?
     
  2. tonk002

    tonk002 Member

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    From a international relations perspective, (not a military one - I have no right to be predicting military stuff when Im not in the military!) I wouldn't get too hasty about thinking of an end in the Middle East. With the growing threat of Yemen, and of course, Iran, I see the Middle East as the hot place for conflict over the next 10-15 years. Yemen will remain a stronghold for terrorism if there is no attempt at a strong central government established, which looks unlikely. Iran's threat remains to be seen, especially with new Presidential elections in a few years. The large youth population is much more pro-America/Western than the Ahmadinejad Administration. The Arab/Israeli conflict will also be interesting to watch, as the Netanyahu Administration pushes further into the West Bank. The Middle East will remain tough- Westerners started the mess with the Partition Plan and colonization, and now they will have to end it, or aid the situation somehow.

    Korea is a threat, yes, but the Middle East is where the tension is really poised to expand in the coming years.
     
  3. patentesq

    patentesq Parent

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    My DS had to write an essay about the possibility of war in Iran in connection with his MOC nomination for USMA. It was telling.
     
  4. raimius

    raimius USAFA Alumnus

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    There are likely to still be tens of thousands of deployed jobs around. For example, the USAF was flying sorties over Iraq from 1991 onwards.
     
  5. scoutpilot

    scoutpilot Member

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    You might as well try to predict the next earthquake. You'll probably have better luck.
     
  6. usna1985

    usna1985 USNA Alumnus

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    It's understandably difficult for this generation to believe, but from around 1975 (the end of Vietnam) until 1990 (DESERT STORM), the overwhelming majority of the military was never in combat. And, putting that short war aside, it was really until 2002 that most of the military saw combat.

    Absent a war, there are a lot more "exercises" and fewer, shorter deployments. But there is always much to do to maintain a state of readiness. Also, I would venture that some billets that are currently not being filled (teaching, etc.) would be filled.
     
  7. Pima

    Pima Parent

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    Scout is correct nobody can predict. However, somewhere along the lines over the past 20 yrs, every branch has paid dues.

    Army:

    Gulf I
    Somalia
    Kosovo
    Haiti
    Gulf II

    Navy:
    Gulf I
    Somalia
    Kosovo
    Haiti
    OSW/ONW
    Gulf II

    AF:
    Gulf I
    Kosovo
    Haiti
    OSW/ONW
    Gulf II

    Those are the ones that just pop into my cranium right now.

    There was no war in Haiti, but I am sure the 82nd and the 10th will tell you that it impacted their lives and it wasn't a training mission. It worked out that there was no combat mission, but I lived there, I can tell you it was a warm Carolina blue sky day as the 130s filled with the 82nd took off from the Pope runway, and it happened within 7 days. We got a phone call Sunday a.m. on the way to church. Bullet was in lock down on Sat., and they flew out to jump in on Sunday. Nobody saw it coming.

    OSW/ONW impacted the Navy and the AF, as Raimius stated the AF and Navy left Iraq...they have been in the sandbox since 1991, 20 yrs of deployments. Bullet did 2 tours in the sandbox for short rotations 180 days +/-, but the missions were not classified as training according to the DoD it was combat.

    To the OP, Bullet went WTD (a TDY for training) to Incirlick, he left home with a shopping list because this was a fun TDY. 3 days later Saddam invaded Kuwait and the fun TDY turned into sitting alert. Again nobody saw that coming.

    Nobody predicted the invasion of Kuwait. Nobody predicted Kosovo. As Scout stated, you might as well predict an earthquake.

    Things happen quickly and historically they come out of left field.
     
  8. Chockstock

    Chockstock "Forever One Team"

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    Next major conflict against a uniformed combatant will be in mid east or east asia
     
  9. linkgmr

    linkgmr Old Grad

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    My money's on Mexico for peacekeeping missions.
     
  10. futureAFA

    futureAFA Member

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    I agree with scout, it is impossible to predict.
     
  11. flieger83

    flieger83 Super Moderator Moderator

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    Predictions...

    Let's see...

    a. As a boy in the UK in the 1960's...I studied the "Fulda Gap" because I KNEW I would be an AF pilot fighting the Soviets there...
    b. As a youth in the USA in the 1970's...I studied the SW Asia maps and history because after the Iranian's took over our embassy, I KNEW we'd eventually go to war with Iran and her friends...
    c. As an AF officer in the 1980's...I sat combat alert because we ALL KNEW that the Soviets were collapsing and they'd start something to save themselves
    d. As a AF officer in the early 1990's...I flew combat in Iraq and Kuwait because we WERE in a war with Iraq...didn't see that one coming...
    e. As a more senior AF officer...I prepared for the war in Kosovo and the Balkans because we KNEW it was coming...
    f. As a MUCH more senior officer...I went to war in Iraq...again...and there was this "little" skirmish in Afghanistan...that blew up to a BIG war
    g. As a soon-to-retire senior officer...I am preparing to watch my country fight a war with many nations...only the weapons will NOT be bombs, bullets, missiles, etc., but they'll be computers and algorithms and financials...because I KNOW nobody wants a real war, they want the power of global financial domination!

    Hmm...which/what came true from the predictions? Answer...none. Everything was "after the fact."

    Predictions...fun but...

    Steve
    USAFA ALO
    USAFA '83
     
  12. -Bull-

    -Bull- Member

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    Until Muslims and Christians can get along, which will never happen, we'll be spending alot of time playing in the sandbox.
     
  13. tonk002

    tonk002 Member

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    Muslims and Christians will never get along? Maybe it doesn't seem like it now, I'll give you that. But food for thought:

    Islam is much, much younger than Christianity, about six centuries younger. That means that, in terms of development, Christianity is 600 years ahead of Islam. Christianity has reformed, through years of war and conflict, to its current state over those 600 years. It has gone from Crusades of killing people in the name of God to accepting of other religions and people. Islam has not yet done so because it is much younger. Eventually, not in our lifetimes, though, Islam will reform, like nearly all other religions do.

    I know you can argue that the basic principals of Christianity and Islam are different, but using a term like "will never happen" is a bit extreme.
     
  14. -Bull-

    -Bull- Member

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    Sorry, probably should've worded it better. Until Muslims can get along with anyone (including themselves), there will be conflict in that region.
     
  15. Chockstock

    Chockstock "Forever One Team"

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    I don't really see how being "younger" as a religion is a reason for the volatility and violence we see in Islam today. Also, its important to realize that the radical Islamists make up a very tiny portion of the rest of the Muslim world. I can assure you that the rest of the Muslims living with us today wish as much as Christians do for peace in the world. The reason why Christians and Muslims don't "get along" with each other is more of a cultural and political issue.
     
  16. tonk002

    tonk002 Member

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    A cultural and political issue - in what ways?

    When Christianity was being "reformed" when it was much younger, it was plagued with violence, too.

    Many Arabs, (that is, those in the Arabic-speaking world), have become angry at the West because their countries borders were drawn by Westerners, their oil is taken by Westerners and their countries are being occupied by Westerners and have even been colonized by them in the past. The anger, along with political and cultural issues as you mention, put that very tiny portion of Muslims over the edge and they have resorted to horrific acts of violence.
     
  17. -Bull-

    -Bull- Member

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    Their oil isn't being really taken. We do in fact buy oil from the Middle East, but only a very small portion. Of the 10 main countries the United States gets its oil from, only 2 are in the Middle East. The main one: Canada.
     
  18. tonk002

    tonk002 Member

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    Very true. But oil consumption and ownership is still a large issue in the Middle East. It was very important in the installation of the Shah in Iran.
     
  19. hornetguy

    hornetguy USAFA Cadet

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    tonk,

    There is much more at issue that any of that. While that sounds like some soundbites from 1960s hippees, oil and the likes are more of enablers to the bigger issues than the issue itself.

    This is a topic that a high schooler probably doesn't have an in depth knowledge on.
     
  20. sg1fan93

    sg1fan93 Member

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    Taking from what I have previously heard, the actual terrorist organizations are perpetuated by the idea that the west has taken a crusade upon their lands. The example I am most familiar with being Bin Laden and the Al Queda, over the transgressions they felt during Desert Storm. This dates further back to pre- ayatollah Iran, where the religious extremists felt their country was being warped by western ideals and culture, which their own views conlficted with, so they decided to overthrow the prowestern monarchy, and instituted a theocracy of sorts. This notion has since spread to many countries and fueled hatred of the west, not just chirstians. This coupled with the contempt over the decades of occupation and abuse are why I think things are as they are in the middle east. There is also America's support for Israel, and probably many others I don't know about.
    Though by no means I am an expert on this subject, don't discount us high schoolers :wink:
     

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