In volatile Gulf, US emphasizes diplomacy as capabilities grow

[bruno]

The other side of that coin is that if you know anything about their fractious leadership situation, it is just as likely that Iran would explode as implode.

Originally Posted by Bear-

Scoutpilot-I'm not sure I understand what that means can you clarify?

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Bear: What Scoutpilot means is pretty straight forward: Why do nations go to war? Principally because they feel that their vital interests are threatened. (And those vital interests may be synonymous with the interests of the state- or it may just be the interests of the leadership depending on how firmly they control the government. In the case of Iran- do you really think that Amadinejhad and the Ayatollahs will just wither away with nothing to do about it?

Those who push sanctions assume that eventually the pain of those sanctions will cause the subject leadership to modify its position in order to relieve the suffering imposed on them. But with the sole exception of South Africa- (Which was sanctioned for 20 years - during which time Apartheid flourished , before the leadership finally changed enough to eliminate it) I can't think of too many countries where sanctions were particularly effective in detering an activity. (North Korea is a pariah state with economic relations with almost no one- how long has it been "sanctioned"? How long has the population been starving?) Sanctions don't have much of a successful track record IMHO. They are a case of Western democracies applying what we value to places that don't have the same level of intolerance to economic pain and suffereing amongst the general population. So while sanctions might work against the US or Western Europe or Japan- where the government is answerable to the people who presumably will move the government to change if the economic pain level is too great; but in a population where the government is a self directed ruling elite- I don't think that sanctions have anywhere near the effectiveness that the UN and many in the USG would like to portray.


In the case of Iran- if the leadership decides that they are in danger of losing their position because of the sanctions- I think it's a distinct possibility that they will in fact explode with acts of external aggression or even outright warfare rather than simply self destruct. Or else- they will bet that they can outlast the sanctions until they have Nuclear weapons functional- at which point they are betting that the world will treat them with a great deal more caution and deference than it does now- and I think they are correct in that assumption. We don't dictate to the nuclear armed nations of the world the way we would for a conventionally armed state. So - TIME is a pretty important component in the case for or against sanctions as the principal means of moving the Iranians.

[AF6872]

The Islamic Regimes will always use the United States and Israel to divert the hatred of the masses from their own dictatorships. Even the Saudis play the same game. As Bruno states sanctions have never worked against totalitarian governments. When they start to hurt the common people it is the US and Israel that is the problem and the demonstrations continue. Sanctions never hurt the subject leadership or the military. Our values in a democratic western society are not theres. Who would think the French would close their Embassies

[MemberLG]

Originally Posted by Bear-

Just a thought-

I'm an avid reader of Business Week and they recently did an article on Iran. The sanctions put on them have been so effective that their economy is 1-2 years from collapse, their currency has depreciated greatly, they can no longer afford to import products and the toughest of sanctions have yet to come. While I agree we need the military resolve in certain situations, this one may be solved diplomatically if we just wait for Iran to implode.

Sanctions work only if the rulers care about their people. Some success stories on sanctions working (perhaps South Africa, Libya, Myanmar) and sanctions not working (perhaps North Korea, Iraq).

National power can be broken down into Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economy.

I don't think so far Diplomacy, Information and Economy haven't work against Iran.