The article states...
"Expanded officer measures include waiving active-duty service commitments in targeted year groups; waiving all but two years of commissioning commitments for Air Force Academy and ROTC graduates as well as waiving their education and scholarship recoupment costs..."
Does this mean "five and dive" is now "two and dive"???
In a word: NO.
Look at a couple key statements:
Both officer and enlisted accessions will be reduced to meet mission requirements. Voluntary and involuntary initiatives also will be implemented as appropriate. Eligibility for these programs will vary by Air Force Specialty Code and years of service to ensure the Air Force has the right balance of skills needed to meet current and future mission requirements.
And then...
In an attempt to limit the impact to Airmen who are currently serving, Air Force officials will adjust accessions. Decisions to reduce accessions will be based on career field manning and future growth.
Expanded officer measures include waiving active-duty service commitments in targeted year groups; waiving all but two years of commissioning commitments for Air Force Academy and ROTC graduates as well as waiving their education and scholarship recoupment costs; and lowering the Reserve obligation for Palace Chase transfers from a three-year commitment ratio to one year for each remaining year of ADSC.
And finally
Officers with more than six and less than 12 years of commissioned service in specific career fields and year groups will be offered voluntary separation pay as a means to encourage their transition from active-duty service. Should this incentive fall short of encouraging the number of transitions needed, a reduction in force board will convene in September to identify officers for transition by April 1, 2011.
A force-shaping board also will convene at this time to identify officers with less than six years of commissioned service in designated career fields and year groups for continued retention or separation.
So what does this mean and why do I say "NO" to the "two and dive?"
In the past (this has happened a lot since I started in 1979) what this means is that the AF goes through ALL the career fields and determines which are "overmanned" and need to be reduced. Then the AF decides what year groups (for officers this is the year you were commissioned) are "overmanned" and need to be reduced to "even out the progression of officers in grade in the next XX years." The AF goal is to have a "neat curve" of career fields, manning, and grade progression for the present and the future.
So...how does this affect your typical AFA graduate? The answer is: it most likely doesn't affect them. SOME, yes; but most, no. Why?
Because most AFA graduates enter rated assignments (pilot, ABM, WSO, EWO) and those historically are NOT touched as they're the "tip of the spear" and we need them up front. The fields you "normally" see "at risk" are things like:
Public Affairs
Administration
Medical Services (not physicians, nurses, but admin types)
OSI
Varied engineering positions
Accounting and Finance
Budgeting
Contracting
And others...it's just too early for my aging mind to list them all. NOTE: they are typically in "support" roles.
So lets say "your graduate" is in one of the "targeted fields for reduction." What will happen? The AF will say "Career field/AFSC is XX% overmanned and will be reduced by voluntary/involuntary means."
The officers in the "eligible" year groups will be "racked and stacked" by their first "O-6" (Colonel) rater above them. This is "typically" the Operations Group Commander or Support Group Commander. The "R&S" will be based upon their performance to date, commanders comments/recommendations, etc...etc... This is MUCH like a promotion board.
Once the R&S is complete, the results will be forwarded to the AF for determination. Example, of there are 300 YY Officers to be looked at and the plan is to cut 130 of them...all things being equal, you do NOT want to be in the bottom 130 of the R&S! If you are, you'll be told "thanks for your service, but you are "excess to the needs of the AF..." and you'll be a civilian typically in less than 8 months. Depending upon how the AF/DOD is doing this, you may or may not receive a nice payout.
THESE are the officers that "may" have their service commitments reduced or waived. For those NOT selected, or in those career fields NOT targeted...NO WAIVING OR REDUCTION of commitment occurs.
So no, it's not a "two and dive" type deal.
This is a VERY simplified explanation...I hope it helps?
Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83