New force-management measures announced

aglages said:
This looks like it's going to hurt:

2/2/2011 - WASHINGTON (AFNS) -- Air Force leaders announced involuntary force management programs Wednesday to reduce personnel as a supplement to the voluntary programs announced in December.

http://www.usafa.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123240940
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Wow, they are seriously shrinking USAFA class sizes. That's quite unusual and is really telling about how serious the issue is for the USAF. I'm glad I'm in a good group (for now). Considering they were nearly successful in separating the 2008 Rhodes Scholar before she started intel training last year (she had some flag officer support, that helped!), all of us in grad programs (esp long ones) have to watch out!

Competition is stiffer! Wonder about something else. Considering the UPT/fighter pipeline may open the floodgates around 2014 as this measure hits full force in reductions, I imagine the chances of getting a good airframe might peak....dunno if my logic follows though. lol.
 
Thanks for sharing this, aglages. Huge RIF! Many of the folks now serving will be in civilian clothes soon. Ugh.
 
Horentguy -
Don't forget that the total force at each of USMA, USNA and USAFA was 4000 prior to the 2003-2004 year when Congress made the increase to 4400 in response to the Iraq War.

Now that the escalation has ceased it only makes sense to return to the pre-war build up numbers. I would not be surprised if Congress reduced the strength at USMA, USNA and USAFA back to 4000.
 
Just_A_Mom said:
Horentguy -
Don't forget that the total force at each of USMA, USNA and USAFA was 4000 prior to the 2003-2004 year when Congress made the increase to 4400 in response to the Iraq War.

Now that the escalation has ceased it only makes sense to return to the pre-war build up numbers. I would not be surprised if Congress reduced the strength at USMA, USNA and USAFA back to 4000.
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I have a different read on this.

I believe Service Academies require Congressional approval for authorization increase, but they don't have minimum numbers to meet.

Marines Corps and Army were allowed to increase their end strength, but not Navy and Air Force. The end strength determines how many officers should be commissioned each year. My reading is that within the Air Force politics, the decision was made to decrease AFA class size to share the pain.

I don't think decreasing the incoming classes at AFA will provide significant cost saving. My guess is that service academies have significant fix cost and little variable cost. The number of personnel assigned to AFA is fixed. Extra cadets cost in they pay, what they eat, additional water and electricity they might use . . .
 
Academy will accomplish the reduction by reducing class size to 1,120 for the Class of 2015 and 1,050 for the Class of 2016.

So what were the same numbers for the last 4 years of classes as a reference?
 
The 1566 offers is what throws me off because they have no way of knowing what the admitted will be. What if more accept and show up than they claim they want? How many squadrons will they have next year? Does that never change? Any talk on cutting back fun stuff like the flying or jump school or fort benning TDYs.
 
luckymacy said:
The 1566 offers is what throws me off because they have no way of knowing what the admitted will be. What if more accept and show up than they claim they want?
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It's not as if they mail all 1,566 offers at once and wait for them to come back, hoping that only 80% accept.

The ebb and flow of "accepts and declines" occurs throughout the appointment cycle, not at one time.

For example:

They may first send out 800 appointments, and perhaps get 650 to accept.
(800 offered, 650 accepted)

They can then mail out another 500, and perhaps 400 accept.
(1,300 offered, 1,050 accepted)

They can then mail out another 200, and perhaps 160 accept.
(1,500 offered, 1,210 accepted)

Etc.
 
Trust Luigi on this one, he knows what he is talking about...his DS was one of those who threw the fish(apptmt) back in the water, I believe his DS accepted another SA apptmt about this time 3 yrs ago.

Notice, that was before the March mass mailing.

People believe that the Mass mailing is like college, where on March 1 everyone hears, it isn't it is about 3 weeks worth of mailings. Thus, like he stated, they do have limited control.

Additionally, they know historically the % that accept out of the number apptd. They can than work off of that. Let's say last yr 1500 were given an apptmt, 1350 showed up for I day, that means they can expect 10% to decline.

Now this yr their target number is 1120, do the math they can than say we need to keep the apptmt @1250, or 250 less.

I am just throwing numbers to make a point, not saying that those were the actual stats.
 
Is it only the AF that has these force over-manning problems?
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No.

The way it has historically worked is when we drawdown from military conflicts, the AF is the 1st to go. Than the Navy and finally the Army.

The AF usually gets hit 1st in the manning issue because the demand has decreased, while the other services are still needed. However, as they withdraw they too will be hit.

If you look on the ROTC side of this forum, it is all the chatter about how this yr the Navy and Army are offering a lot less scholarships than from previous yrs. 2 yrs ago that was what you saw on the AFROTC side. It was just announced that the Army is cutting ROTC scholarships by 25%...LY 1000, TY 750. That is huge, and very telling about where they see their manpower issues 4 yrs from now.

Using history as a predictor model, I would bet you will see the other services face the same thing.

In 91 after the Gulf, the AF went through a big time RIF. 92 Navy announced their decision to reduce, and shortly followed the Army was doing it too.

To understand the military you must understand the impact of the economy. Good economy people leave as soon as their commitment is up. Bad economy they stay. The AF especially feels it because of the pilot world. If airlines aren't hiring they aren't leaving. Also, out of that non-rated feel it even more. You can take a pilot and put them in a desk to wait it out. You can't take a desk guy and put them in a jet. Thus, who do they cut? The pilot or non-rated? Obviously the non-rated.
 
Luigi59 said:
It's not as if they mail all 1,566 offers at once and wait for them to come back, hoping that only 80% accept.

The ebb and flow of "accepts and declines" occurs throughout the appointment cycle, not at one time.

For example:

They may first send out 800 appointments, and perhaps get 650 to accept.
(800 offered, 650 accepted)

They can then mail out another 500, and perhaps 400 accept.
(1,300 offered, 1,050 accepted)

They can then mail out another 200, and perhaps 160 accept.
(1,500 offered, 1,210 accepted)

Etc.
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That works kind of if they did rolling admissions and required very quick responses which doesn't seem to be the USAFA way from what I have read. How long do kids have to accept offers?
 
They do kind of have a rolling admissions if you think about it.

MOC submits a slate. Once all of them get their WCS, they can appt.

Let's say the slate is submit Nov 1st, by Dec 1st everyone on the slate has a WCS. The AFA can now charge the MOC an appointee.

CC's son, did not have an LOA, I think he didn't even know if he had any MOC noms by the time he received the BFE. However, he had a Presidential, and the AFA decided that his WCS was high enough he would win the apptmt, and he was apptd @ Thanksgiving.

Before the mass mailing it is about 30% that get apptd., so again it is a quasi-rolling. Or maybe you could also see it as ED for a traditional college.

Additionally, those who really want the AFA will sign on quickly. Those who are unsure will hold onto it to the last minute.

It really varies.
 
Definitely good information here. This is exactly how the assignment issuance is done. Luigi is quite correct. They will give them out a little at a time until they get where they want to be. As pima stated, they start with the LOA's and Early Appointments. They are started the first round at the end of October - 1st week or so of November. My son received his appointment BFE the 10th of November. (His online status changed to "Appointment Offered" on the 5th of November). So, they take all these in the first stage that they know based on history WILL receive an appointment because their apps are statistically and historically much higher than the norm. They send out the LOA if they still need a nomination; or they send out an early appointment if they already have a non-moc nomination like a presidential, rotc, etc....

Then; they readdress their LOA's as the nominations are completed. And individual with an LOA, doesn't have to wait for the entire MOC slate to be submitted. Then, they start sending out those appointment offers. Then for the straggler MOC's who wait til the end to submit, the rest of the LOA's are done; along with any other non-MOC appointments. Then, admissions and the board takes a deep breath and decides how many have accepted their appointments, and how many they want additionally.

Then, "MARCH MADNESS" happens. They know that they must give out at least 1 slot per MOC who has an available slot at the academy. So that is pretty much a "HARD NUMBER". If there's 553 available MOC slots, they are 100% guaranteed that they will get those 553 appointments. It might not be the #1, because they turn it down, but it could be #2, #3, or whatever. But they will get their 553 appointees. So now, they decide how many more they want. And as Luigi pointed out, they will give out either a portion, or that exact number of appointment offers. Wait to see how many turn it down, and start making additional offers.

The thing about this whole talk about reduction, is the air force could become pro-active tonight, and simply tell the academy. "Instead of waiting for next year and the year after; lets change this year's class to be another 100 less that we originally said". They won't rescind an appointment offer, but they could change their numbers until the offers are actually all accepted. I don't know what this will mean to the current classes. e.g. class of 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014. Will they have a freeze on pilots slots? Looks like them wanting to get rid of some of the health care fields. How much will they cut back on grad school directly out of the academy. There are so many unknowns. And because the military is so slow at catching up; they can implement a policy today that takes affect today. But if they see it going to far in that direction, they tend to be about a year or two behind which fixing or rescinding. Hope it all works out for our existing cadets and officers.
 
I just found an interesting article on the AF website. Looks like the enlisted force is taking a hit as well.

http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123241087

I never really understood the Congressional authorization. 1% of the nation serves in the military, and conflicts just keep spreading around the world. Why wouldn't we want more?

Also, yeah, we're in a tough economic situation, but there are a million things that can go before the military takes a hit - and even when we are, personnel should be last on the chopping block.
 
Eagle 1 said:
I just found an interesting article on the AF website. Looks like the enlisted force is taking a hit as well.

http://www.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123241087

I never really understood the Congressional authorization. 1% of the nation serves in the military, and conflicts just keep spreading around the world. Why wouldn't we want more?

Also, yeah, we're in a tough economic situation, but there are a million things that can go before the military takes a hit - and even when we are, personnel should be last on the chopping block.
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While we've already had this discussion on another thread and don't need to turn this one into a repeat, the cost per person in the services has been rising (greater than inflation) over time. Each person costs the military a lot more than they used to. 10,000 extra people is quite a bit of money. 2,700 extra officers, if they averaged as senior captains, that's a quarter billion dollars or so just in pay, not including the medical/dental/etc. that supports them.
 
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