AD Slots for ROTC Scholarship Recipients During Military Drawdown

patentesq

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This question is for those who have in the system long enough (pre-2001) to remember how the military (of any service) has handled active duty slots at ROTC units during periods of a major military drawdown.

Suppose the cadet is a vibrant and active ROTC participant (does well as a cadet and jumps through all hoops, such as good GPA, good participation in ROTC activities, etc.) and is attending a civilian school on an ROTC scholarship (4yr or 3yr or 2yr), do you expect that the cadet will nevertheless have a difficult time gaining an active duty slot in 2015, despite the military spending a lot of money in the years preceding 2015 to put that cadet through school? Or is that cadet basically on the "same level" as an SA graduate because of the ROTC scholarship?

I understand that it is very difficult to predict what will happen in 2015, but I think this is the direction in which we are headed. Any thoughts are appreciated.

(for purposes of this question, assume cadet is civilian ROTC and not SA or SMC, where AD is essentially guaranteed by law)
 
My understanding is each year they see how many lt's they need for Active Duty and how many for Reserves.
Some ROTC cadets will go to Reserves automatically - they have a Reserve scholarship or contract Reserves/Guard.
For all who want AD - they list by OML and draw a line. Those above the line get AD. Those below the line get Guard/Reserves.

For most of the past several years - since the War's really got going and the Army was in high need of jr officers - nearly every, if not every cadet who wanted AD got AD. Now they are in competition again.
GPA matters, Battalion performance matters but..... LDAC score and PT tests matter a lot. In otherwords, you can't say that if you get a 3.0 you get AD and below that you get Guard/Reserves.

Honestly, don't even try to predict the future. Just go with it - it is what it is.

Standing by for additional input (corrections) from those in 'the know'.......
 
Honestly the career field also matters.

JAM is correct re what matters, BUT the career field also plays into the equation.

A field with shortages will have more opportunities. A field with overages will have less opportunities.

Timing is the answer
 
Career field does not matter if you get AD or Reserves/Guard. They find this out before they get their Branch assignment.

Also - Understand - the Army has a real NEED for junior officers in the Guard and Reserves. Hopefully no one looks upon this as where they throw ROTC flunkies. Many officers make a good career in the Reserves or Guard and stay in a long long time.

Here is the latest article in the Army Times about the Army drawdown -
note that Gen Chiarelli notes there will not be any Officer reductions - only enlisted:
http://www.armytimes.com/news/2011/02/defense-chiarelli-warning-on-end-strength-022411/

The Army’s active force is at 570,000, which includes 22,000 soldiers allowed under a temporary end strength increase.
The Army will reduce the force back to 547,000 over an 18-month period that begins in the middle of 2012.
“That is all enlisted soldiers; it is not officers,” Chiarelli said. “Some of it will be done through attrition; some of it will be done through quality points.”
 
Honestly the career field also matters.

JAM is correct re what matters, BUT the career field also plays into the equation.

A field with shortages will have more opportunities. A field with overages will have less opportunities.

Timing is the answer

Career fields will definatly come into play for those who are currently or will be active duty.

As far as going AD from AROTC JAM is correct in the statement that CC will first set the AD line on the OML and then assign the branches for AD for those that make the AD cutoff. Those going Reserves or NG have some wiggle room in selecting their brances. If they want a certain branch they need to find a Reserve unit that has a need for a 2nd LT in that branch.

Of course this is for the Army, the Air Force may do things completely different. I admit I know nothing about the Air Force or AFROTC except their uniforms are blue and we shared their runway space sometimes when I was in the Coast Guard....Oh and they always had great food.
 
AFROTC has 2 boards for ROTC. RATED and NON-RATED.

Career fields do matter for the AFROTC.

Patentesq has a candidate for all the 3 big AD's.

I was just saying for AF it matters.

I also will say anyone in the Army AD world will also acknowledge career fields matter in the AD would when it comes to promotion from Company to Field Grade. (O3 to O4).

Read that post carefully about 570K being reduced to 547K...the Army also has a mandate of officers to enlisted,
 
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I also will say anyone in the Army AD world will also acknowledge career fields matter in the AD would when it comes to promotion from Company to Field Grade. (O3 to O4).

Very true for all branches of the military, even the Coast Guard looked very hard at your career field when promotion time came around.
 
Yes, thread is not limited to AROTC, AFROTC, or NROTC.

Are you guys saying that if the military forks out $100k to $200k to a scholarship awardee, it would not require them to serve on active duty (assuming downturn and lower need for officers)?

Seems to me that if DS wants active duty, and has to decide between SA and ROTC Scholarship, then it's a risk to go ROTC with no guarantee of AD!
 
Yes, thread is not limited to AROTC, AFROTC, or NROTC.

Are you guys saying that if the military forks out $100k to $200k to a scholarship awardee, it would not require them to serve on active duty (assuming downturn and lower need for officers)?

Seems to me that if DS wants active duty, and has to decide between SA and ROTC Scholarship, then it's a risk to go ROTC with no guarantee of AD!

In the AROTC that is correct, AD is not a given. If you are below the AD cutoff on the OML it doesn't matter if you had a scholarship or not you will go reserve. Last year there were about 600 forced reserve duty given.

Only SMC and the SA's are guarenteed AD.

In the 90's most ROTC grads went reserve, even those with scholarships, which there were not many during that time.
 
In the 90's most ROTC grads went reserve, even those with scholarships, which there were not many during that time.

With budgets cuts that will last years and winding down of activity in the Middle East the bulk of the ROTC cadets might never get AD.
 
I wouldn't sweat this one that much, especially if you are a squared away cadet. I think the statement about the 90s reflects the old Regular Army v. USAR commission (I think that's what they called us). USAR commissions still went on active duty, they just didn't have the RA status (whatever that really meant). The Active Army will still need plenty of 2LTs every year, more than USMA can provide.
 
Absolutely agree with clarksonarmy. You are making a mistake worrying and gaming over your chances for AD amidst a project "drawdown". I don't think that it's true that the bulk of ROTC grads in the 90s went to USAR/ANG duty if they wanted AD- I think that is a misunderstanding of their commissions (the USAR commission notwithstanding- that was a vestige of an older Army but by the 1990s the RA vs USAR commission meant very little until you got to 20 years or until there was a RIF- but the law changed on the RIF eligibility in the mid 90's and the difference in the commission finally got changed completely several years ago. Now everyone on AD is an RA). I'm convinced that if you do your job as a Cadet and a student, your chances of getting AD will be fine whether you graduate next year or in 2016. What you control is your performance- so focus on that- all of the rest is just a cloudy crystal ball.
 
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