I agree with mikeandcris, but also would add in VA. NoVA has that silly small building called the Pentagon which has a huge amount of military, and many of them have kids who can get in on presidential, thus they have a huge pool.
I would also say that if you pull out the latest Money, Time, USNWR these states also have nationally ranked top 100 public hs.
Yes and no Phil. You may have the most MOC's, but than there is that silly thing called the NWL and depending on the WCS you could actually find TX to have more than CA based on the NWL. Appointees charged to an MOC would be CA in your scenario, but appointees come in under various charges.
In the end, CA, TX, FL, NY, VA and CO traditionally are the most competitive states for the AFA. As mikeandcris stated it has alot to do with the geographic pool.
CO is competitive for the AFA, but not really for the USMA. Why? Simple the AFA is in CO.