Overall ly selection was actually @55%+ nationally, some schools had higher & (i.e. VT was in the 60%+ if I recall), some had lower...one poster (parent) said their school was 38%. Our DS's school was right at the national.
The point is because schools vary, nobody can give a true up or down. If you were at our DS's college you would look like a very strong candidate, and I would say feel comfortable you should be fine. However, your school had a lower than nat. avg., and that needs to be placed into the equation. Maybe at your school a 3.4cgpa+ is the historic min. I don't know.
Remember although cgpa is a factor, just like for scholarships, the school profile and course rigor will be taken into the equation. You can't say that a cadet from UMiami in a govt major is attending a school academically on par with UPenn. A 3.3 for the two are not the same because of the profile of each school and the rigor of courses offered, the board is going to recognize that issue.
The best advice is to talk to the POC's in your det. They will be able to give you a true ball park of what "safe" is for the non-tech major at your school.
Additionally, if I am correct don't they now give the AFOQT in Oct C200 yr? That will be a part of your WCS. If they did not give it, the last I heard is they will substitute your SAT from HS.
Hence, you are missing a piece of the equation.
The Commander's rec and ranking of you within the det will play the biggest part of the equation. If he says you are top dog, than you will get more points than just being one of my top dogs.
Notice the difference in the statements. Somebody from your det will get top dog (my #1). Than some will get my next top. Than some will get my top 25%. Than comes the I support. Than comes no writing in the box for supplemental (think if you have nothing good to say, say nothing). Than comes I do not support. (RARER than RARER can be...you did something bad and they are using it as a way to drop you). In the AD world these are key phrases that are used for all promotion boards...minus the dog
The board knows that. That rec is 50% of your packet.
Understand that not only does tech v non tech major matter, so does career field. A cadet that is a nursing major, has an edge because manning wise they are in desperate need of them. No SFT = no commissioning. Same with certain foreign language majors. So it is not as cut and dry as you may believe.
Like I said, talk to the POCS, they know who in the unit got it and didn't last yr. They can eyeball it for you better than us. At our DS's college as 100's you are assigned a 300 to mentor you for the 2 yrs as a GMC. That is one of the reasons they are there.
I also would not say this yr is going to be worse. IMPHO, it will be the highest since graduating class of 11. 12 and 13 they not only cut HS scholarships, but also stopped ICSP and cancelled OCS boards. 14 is now available for scholarships. They would not offer this to C200's and than have to revoke it because they didn't get SFT.
No SFT also means as a scholarship recipient they have the right to revoke the scholarship, or place you in 250. Why would they do this if they expect to reduce the number even lower for SFT? It does not make logical sense from a fiscal position.
I am sure you may believe that 14 also might be the last big class because of AFA reducing 15 and 16 drastically. However, the 2 have nothing to do with each other. AFA had to reduce their size due to a federal law which mandates 4400 at any given time, or ask for a waiver. Due to the budget issues AFA opted not for a waiver. By not opting they had to trim 15 and 16.
AFROTC OTOH trimmed scholarships back in 2010 for 14. They had less coming in. They did have some who came in as 100's without scholarships, hoping for one as an IC, but when it was cancelled LY, many jumped ship and went to AROTC, or no ROTC at all. That decreased the C200 class for this yr. The number of SFT slots remained the same. Statistically that would mean the % will rise.
OBTW, understand you are not competing against just the 200's you are also competing against the 250's. How many of those 250's are HS scholarship? I ask because for them to retain the scholarship, command had to step in and fight for them with AFROTC HQ. AFROTC had to agree to let them keep the scholarship and go 250. It would be hard for any commander to come back a yr later on the rec and say to the AFROTC HQ, I made a mistake, they aren't as good as I thought, and AFROTC just wasted a yr of tuition, plus stipend, plus book allowance on them...here's my real number 1.
That is why I say, talk to your POCs. The minutia for your school or any cadets school is too great to say...YES, NO or MAYBE without having the inner details of your unit.
The only way I see the number being lower is if Congress forces Panetta to make more drastic cuts due to the super committee failing to create a budget.
Good luck. Study for those finals, because the gpa will include your fall semester soph yr. Pull a 4.0 and the cgpa goes up, pull a 3.3 and it stays the same. Every point for the board will matter, and the gpa is not yet set in stone.
You will not know until sometime in Feb/Mar. Enjoy life. BELIEVE!