The application process is too complicated to arbitrarily draw a line somewhere in the middle of it.
For example, how many hopefuls were turned away at the door and not even assigned a candidate number? The Common Application is accessible to everyone who owns a computer and has a street address; the Naval Academy application is not. If Harvard counts everyone who completes the Common Application (no matter what kind of "realistic" chance they have) why can't the Naval Academy count everyone who completes a Precandidate Application?
And I don't think any of the candidates were ever so disillusioned to believe that 5-7% acceptance rate anyway. Those who understand the admissions process know better.
nuensis is spot on, but just scratching the surface. The whole college application/acceptance process is at least as corrupt as the rest of society. From those first letters that arrive in middle school telling the kid: "You should attend the Stanford summer program" or "Attend the national security leadership conference in Washington DC." All for a hefty price.
The whole college app culture, typified by such solicitations, are designed to inculcate a sense of aspirational inferiority in parents and students. The response is to spend money on advisors, prep classes, extra-curriculars (like the above sentioned "conference"). My favorite was the, "Make a difference on a Summer Humanitarian Mission to Africa." Of course, it cost $8000. If you are lucky enough the be accepted". How about just sending $5000 to a legit mission already on the ground and have your kid sack groceries during the day and wash dishes at a soup kitchen a few evenings a week.
We went through this process with son #1. He had top 2% test scores and was targeted. I was shocked at the $ and psychic energy that parents were spending. He did not apply to an SA, but did apply to Stanford and three Ivies. They rejected him post haste with no explanation. You'd think someone died. He is now an AROTC MSI (engineering) at a big state school that actually read his app and looked at the person. They let him know they wanted him. He is in the honors program and discovered that it is filled with kids just like him. Either they were turned down at the super elites or their parents didn't want to spend
$50-60K versus $0-20k at big state U.
This news means nothing to us. The USNA application process is a helluva lot more rigorous that the super elites, but the accpeptance process is infinitely less arbitrary. We look at the quality of the graduates not the admissions and PR offices. It is our job as parents to contextualize the noise from the outside culture.
#2 son is a junior and aspires to USNA. He is a math/science/sports minded tinkerer who intends on studying Mech Eng. He is probably the least talented member of his hockey team, but he works as hard as anyone else and they love his 80's vintage boom box which he modified to play MP3's in the locker room before practice and games.
The path we're following as follows: 1) Keep the school day rigorous, 2) Stay active, 3)Determine if his scores, GPA etc. put him in the USNA upper 50% of acceptees. Remember the SA's field a full slate of D1 sports and they also seek diversity, 4)Dig deep and learn about the place, 5)Seek out current mids and recent graduates. Find out how they dealt with those issues that look the most challenging, 6)Have backup schools, consider ROTC, 7)Focus on the place you want to be 5-6 years from now. If USNA doesn't pan out, there are many more paths to his goals.
My advice the all college aspirants and their parents is to focus on what you love and what is important to you and follow that path. There is a reason everyone wants to come this country. Opportunities abound. Pathways to one's aspirations are everywhere.
