State Competitiveness

Hey Guys,

I live in Oregon and I was wondering how competitive it is to secure a nomination from here. What would you rate it out of 50?(1 being the most competitive(Colorado?) and 50 being the least)

Well, Oregon is the 27th most populous state. Without any other quantifiable data, I would rank it 27th. I would put CO, TX, CA, and FL at the top of the list.

DudusMaximus said:

Well, Oregon is the 27th most populous state. Without any other quantifiable data, I would rank it 27th. I would put CO, TX, CA, and FL at the top of the list.

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For US senators, population can make a difference in terms of "x number of candidates per US Senator" but they can be misleading as well.

(For your Rep, state population doesn't matter as all Congressional voting districts contain the same number of people.)

States that have a large or well known Air Force installation, or a large amount of military workers tend to produce a lot of applicants (i.e MD and VA).

Trying to rank competitiveness is very misleading. While many states are supposedly "More Competitive" because of their population and their familiarity and proximity to military; e.g. california, texas, florida, virginia, colorado, etc... You can come from certain districts in california, where if you apply for a nomination, you are practically GUARANTEED a nomination. There are actually some districts where a representative has a difficult time even getting 10 people to apply for a nomination.

So while state population and senate nominations may have some competitiveness relevance, I don't think that can be said for congressional districts and representative nominations. Your district in Oregon might have 100 people per year applying for a nomination: (VERY COMPETITIVE). On the other hand, they might only have 8-10 people applying for a nomination: (Basically GUARANTEED to receive a nomination). You can check with your ALO and ask him/her how many people applied for that congressman/woman's nomination.

Well, I am from Oregon, and I can tell you when I applied, it was NOT competitive at all to get a nomination. I sent in the application and one week later, my representative called me and told me she nominated me, I didn't even need an interview. However, I suppose it does depend on where you are from. I lived in Salem if that helps at all.

It really does depend on the state AND district. I live in the biggest city in Kansas, which is huge in the aircraft industry, and only twelve people from my district applied for a congressional nomination to USAFA. On top of that, only eight people got congressional nominations to USNA. (see source) That's how little the competition is here.

That, of course, doesn't mean you can get a nomination automatically though. Applicants still get turned down if our Congressman doesn't feel the applicant meets the criteria for admission.

I heard that, taking into account all of the academies, there were a total of 98 applicants to the two Kansas senators. That's about 33 applicants per academy that our MOCs award nominations to. (USAFA, USNA, and USMA)

Good luck!

Virginia Senators Warner and Webb said they had over 600 applicants each last year and Senator Warner stated he had over 700 applicants this year. Our congressman had almost 100 applicants for his 4 slates.

USAFretired1996 said:

Virginia Senators Warner and Webb said they had over 600 applicants each last year and Senator Warner stated he had over 700 applicants this year. Our congressman had almost 100 applicants for his 4 slates.

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Wow that is a bunch of Senatorial applications for a medium sized state. Last year each Kentucky Senator only had about 50 applicants. So while Virginia has about twice the population of Kentucky, it had more than 10 times the number of SA applicants. And I suspect that there are even less competitive states than Kentucky since we have Fort Knox, Fort Campbell, and lots of UPS pilots that are ex-military.

Now, do the math. 435 representatives and 100 senators. On average, assuming they each only have 1 slot available, that's 5350 nominations. Minus 25% for individuals who were fortunate enough to receive more than 1 nomination from a MOC. That still leaves more than 4,000. Throw in another 500-1000 for military related nominations like presidential, ROTC, etc...; that brings the number to between 4500-5000. Yet, when the dust settles, there's usually only about 2500-3000 candidates who are actually qualified all the way across the board. From that, you'll get your 1050-1350 (Depending on the year) appointments.

I only bring this up because while it's a definite accomplishment to receive a nomination; and one you should be proud of; it doesn't guarantee an individual an appointment. Basically, between 20-25% of nominees will receive an appointment. Or approximately 40% of nominees who are qualified. When you consider that approximately 12,000-13,000 start the application/nomination/appointment process, that's a big drop. Just giving a little perspective. Why it's important to be competitive, do your best, and to have backup plans lined up.

High interest in Virginia stems from the huge active duty and retiree population in the state. We have the world's largest Navy base at Norfolk, the Pentagon and every service has at least one active duty installation located in Virginia.

Christcorp said:

Basically, between 20-25% of nominees will receive an appointment. Or approximately 40% of nominees who are qualified

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While it's not that low (40%) - at least for the 4 current classes - - it's a little better than a coin flip (50/50) that a qualified candidate (3Q+nom) will be appointed.

2015: 2641 qualified / 1372 appointments = 52%
2014: 2445 qualified / 1269 appointments = 52%
2013: 2253 qualified / 1669 appointments = 73%
2012: 2099 qualified / 1642 appointments = 63%

Luigi59 said:

While it's not that low (40%) - at least for the 4 current classes - - it's a little better than a coin flip (50/50) that a qualified candidate (3Q+nom) will be appointed.

2015: 2641 qualified / 1372 appointments = 52%
2014: 2445 qualified / 1269 appointments = 52%
2013: 2253 qualified / 1669 appointments = 73%
2012: 2099 qualified / 1642 appointments = 63%

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I'm talking about "Walking through the door" on "A-Day". Those numbers you show are the numbers prior to acceptance. E.g. the class of 2012 didn't have 1642 actually attend BCT and start classes. It was around 1285. (I don't have the exact number in front of me). Just like 2015 was around 1137.

So I probably should have said the "The Percentage actually attending the academy". But you are correct that it's closer to a 50/50 split.

Christcorp said:

I'm talking about "Walking through the door" on "A-Day". Those numbers you show are the numbers prior to acceptance. E.g. the class of 2012 didn't have 1642 actually attend BCT and start classes. It was around 1285. (I don't have the exact number in front of me). Just like 2015 was around 1137.

So I probably should have said the "The Percentage actually attending the academy". But you are correct that it's closer to a 50/50 split.

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Well, when discussin' appointments, we need to discuss.......appointments. Not acceptances.

I know it's hard for you to believe, CC, but some people actually do decline their USAFA appointments.

Luigi59 said:

Well, when discussin' appointments, we need to discuss.......appointments. Not acceptances.

I know it's hard for you to believe, CC, but some people actually do decline their USAFA appointments.

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ummmm, that's why I was talking acceptance. The academy had/has no intention of ever allowing 1600+ individuals to come to the academy in one class. They/we/I know that people turn down appointments. Not hard for me to believe at all. I've seen 200-400 turn appointments down every year for the last 7 years. Matter of fact, I would say that the overwhelming majority of the 12,000+/- who initially apply to the academy(ies) don't have the academy as their #1 choice for college.

I'm from Oregon, but I missed the deadline for my representative's nom (which was about a month or more ahead of my two state senators). I ended up just applying for nomination from both senators and vice presidential.

Christcorp said:

I only bring this up because while it's a definite accomplishment to receive a nomination; and one you should be proud of; it doesn't guarantee an individual an appointment. Basically, between 20-25% of nominees will receive an appointment. Or approximately 40% of nominees who are qualified. When you consider that approximately 12,000-13,000 start the application/nomination/appointment process, that's a big drop. Just giving a little perspective. Why it's important to be competitive, do your best, and to have backup plans lined up.

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For one wanting to try and "guess" at their chances, it seems the appointment number is considerably more meaningful than the acceptance number. Luigi's numbers give ones statistical probability of getting an appointment (offer) if they are 3Q + nom.

Packer said:

For one wanting to try and "guess" at their chances, it seems the appointment number is considerably more meaningful than the acceptance number. Luigi's numbers give ones statistical probability of getting an appointment (offer) if they are 3Q + nom.

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It's not really useful to consider the "unversal" rate. IOW, all 3Qs with noms do not have the same likelihood of receiving an appointment b/c some folks are more qualified than others.

In that vein, it may be easier to obtain a nom from a less competitive state or district; however, it may be harder to obtain an appointment if you're not the principal nominee.

Trying to figure out your "odds" by looking at numbers may be entertaining, but I'm not sure its any real predictor as it applies to you personally.

I just was told by Sen. Merkley's office from Oregon that I should expect a phone interview in the near future. The staffer who alerted me said only a few people were chosen for this for USAFA and implied that my chances of a nomination were good!

Packer said:

For one wanting to try and "guess" at their chances, it seems the appointment number is considerably more meaningful than the acceptance number. Luigi's numbers give ones statistical probability of getting an appointment (offer) if they are 3Q + nom.

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Something also to add to what USNA posted.

The world of the Air Force academy appointments changed dramatically in the last year. In the class of 2009-2013, the academy went off of past data and offered 1600+ appointments, KNOWING that approximately 400 would turn it down. Well, in the last 3-4 years, the economy has made it where less people have been turning down appointments. As such, the academies have TOO MANY cadets. (By law, they are only suppose to have no more than 4400 at the academy total each year, and no more than 1000 being commissioned each year). Well, they've been exceeding that, no longer are being offered automatic waivers, and with DOD budget cuts have changed their methods.

This past year, instead of offering all the appointments up front and waiting for many to turn them down, they'd offer some.... wait for the turn downs.... offer some more..... wait for more turn downs..... etc... This way they could ensure that they didn't wind up with too many people accepting an appointment.

So, you can believe that looking at "Past" appointment numbers is meaningful in judging your chances, but I wouldn't use the past to judge the future. The academy is no longer using the past to make their appointment offers, so why would you use the past to judge your chances. Truth is; this coming year is going to be the lowest appointed class. There will be approximately 1050 appointments. For what it's worth, this year's graduating class of 2012, still has over 1100 students. (When I checked a couple months ago). That's why the rules are changing. People aren't dropping out and turning them down as much as they did in the past.

Are there any members on this forum from Oklahoma who has gotten an nom and or appointment?