Ohio,
It will be interesting how this will play out for the class of 15 or 16, because if they can't get the numbers down how will the guard be able to commission them.
As others have stated this can change on a dime. People tend to forget that until we can get out of this unemployment issue those in who have passed their commitment owed, not up for promotion will be more likely to stick it out, because a paycheck is a paycheck, regardless of the amount.
If they do not get out, they slow down the pipeline for those entering.
According to Col. Smith, the Army is “drawing down to a force of about 490,000.” While currently just over that goal at just over 500,000, the Army department is unable to go over their set number of contracts as they had been able to in past years.
Reading in the article the upside is they are only 10K over their quota of 490K max. However, because they are over, the downside is they can't contract right now.
Bringing us back full circle to that political quote yrs ago about the economy, until AD members start leaving for the corporate world, or the Army imposes RIFs, VSSP, SERBS, etc., they will have to figure a way to balance the numbers.
ROTC usually takes a hit in this scenario. It will take an even harder hit for every branch because DOD has announced the closure of @3 dozen ROTC units (A/AF/N) across the nation.
