IMPO,
How do you know if your state is competitive?
Simple.
Do the MOCs spread the wealth for noms? Do they talk?
IOTW, if, when you comb through the SA and Nom threads; you see that it is common that they will not offer an applicant a nom because another MOC has placed them on their slate, than the answer is simple. It IS competitive.
If combing through the threads you see that the MOC not only talks, but also uses principal, than it is extremely competitive.
CO is considered competitive. They talk, and some MOCs offer principal.
I would place CO with CA, FL, MD, NY, PA, TX and VA when it comes to how competitive it is.
Something to understand is you need just 1 nom. Many that come from a competitive state also get appointed from the NWL. Plus, if you look at those states, many are military dependents due to base/posts, thus they have Presidential noms.
It is not uncommon for them to have 60-70+% come off the slate. One will be charged to the MOC, the other will be charged elsewhere.
Just saying, if you are from a competitive state, don't assume even if you don't get the principal it is all over. The WCS you have will determine if it is.
Vise a verse, don't assume if you are from a non-competitive state you will get appointed, even if you have 3 noms.