1. The problem is you can only guesstimate the breakdown and that is after doing some more searching. For the past few yrs it has been around 900 awarded, thus you can figure out the non-tech numbers by doing some simple math.
~~~ Here is the problem. DoD budget for FY 14 has already been announced and it is taking another hit. Nobody can project where that loss is going to come from. It could be from AD personnel, it could be from operations, it could come from ROTC, or it could be all 3 or none of the above. Anyone in the know will not tell you because right now that is just the big number, not the nitty gritty.
Just because yrs passed 900 were awarded, doesn't mean this yr. they will only award 750. Plus any ALO for the AFA worth their weight in salt will tell the candidate to apply for AFROTC scholarship as plan B. You will be competing against them too since AFA and AFROTC boards do not talk. They do not know if the candidate is using this as their plan B. I always say 95% of SA candidates will apply for a ROTC scholarship, however, 95% of ROTC candidates will not apply for an SA apptmt as plan B. AFROTC scholarships are national.
2. Your ACTs are strong. They are above the avg for recipients. You stated you are in the top 20%, all you have to do is ask your GC % breakdown (Ivy, etc). It will give you a better feel.
~~~ This portion is called PAR (Prior Academic Record). It is @60% of your WCS. There is a breakdown from there on the wt for the SAT/ACT, the cgpa, the class rank.
~~~ Personally I would take the SAT and ACT again in the fall. The only thing AFROTC allows to add as a sr. are these scores. They will take the best. Our DS took both, he got a 1390 on his SAT, and a 33 or 34 (can't remember). They took his ACT because the score translated to the SAT was higher for him.
~~~ As I said that score unless you take the AFOQT will be used for SFT.
3. Critical manning changes. I.E. when DS entered in 08, EE's were not considered critical manning majors. When he got his UPT slot in 11, EE's still were getting rated. A yr later EE was considered critical manning, and basically you had little to no chance going rated. It was the same for this past yrs board.
~~~ I know you don't want to fly, the point is in 1 short yr. majors changed regarding critical manning.
~~~ I am sure Russian is probably still on there, like I said it is an edge, but nobody knows the breakdown of the languages. If they set aside 50 for language, it maybe 35 for Chinese, 12 for Arabic/Farsi and 3 for Russian. AGAIN...national. They may decide to give all 50 to Chinese because for the 17 class they have enough of Russian majors in the pipelne. It could be they have 0 in the pipeline and need you more.
Putin is crazy, and now with Snowden they may really want more Russian majors.
That being said, also understand if you do Russian, and they award you the scholarship for that major, they also have a hand in what you will do ADAF. I.E. Rated and EEs. You want to be on the SP side of the house. They may say you are going to go Intel for cyber space to translate.
That's the military. Service before self. Your desires will always be 2nd.
4. You want to take that PFA way before Dec. It is a queue. The way the boards work is ADAF officers are sent TDY to Maxwell for 3 days. They are handed the files, and at the end of the 3rd day, if they get through all of them, great, if not, the candidate is told at this time they were not boarded and will meet the next board.
~~~~ Closer you get to Dec. the further you will be down on the pile and a higher risk that you may get the you were boarded notification.
You want to meet boards early because many candidates don't get the DoDMERB exam request until they are deemed competitive. The sooner you get the exam done the better off you will be in case you get a DQ or remedial. If I had a dollar for every candidate on here that didn't realize something a doc diagnosed them with after 13 caused a DQ, I would be spending a 3 day weekend in the Bahamas. If I had a dollar for every one that was DQ'd because the doc gave them an inhaler for JIC, I would be there for a week. Same is true for vision.
Many get tripped up on the DoDMERB. A waiver can take a few weeks, or a few months.
5. Don't read into the SFT selection unless you ask the true questions. In 2010 the rate was
55%, 2100 +/- were selected. In 11 and 12 it was 90% +/-, 2200 selected.
Statistically the only way to jump 35% with only 100 more slots was a smaller pool.
There is a poster here that has pm'd me. They attend a very large det. They are now a 400, and cadet wing staff. The incoming class for 17 (C100) registered is @200...the entire size of 100, 200, 250, 500, 300, 400 combined just for 1 yr. group. It is 2 times the size of the avg 100 yr group.
~~~ Many people that did not think of going ROTC because of Iraq/Afghanistan operations, now view ROTC in a different way. Fear is reduced. Economy still stinks, and 4 yrs AD doesn't seem that bad when the AF will guarantee a job, pay tuition, pay for 900 bucks for books, and give a monthly stipend. The pool gets bigger just due to the fact that this is attractive. No HSSP, they can get an ISSP.
Just saying for that posters det., if they stick it out their rate is going to drop a lot.
Something to think about when they say only 1. You should also ask a deeper question. Did you hold a mini-board, or did you submit all cadets up for SFT? What is the % rate for 100s commissioning 4 yrs later? A det of 150 cadets, will have bigger 100, 200, 250, 500 classes than a 300 and 400. DS had a commissioning group of 26. He entered as a 100 scholarship cadet and the group was about 100. His yr group as I stated had 55% selection rate.
As for Commander's rec...don't fool yourself. It is not personal, and flowery. It is bullet statements that include jobs held in the det. They will rely on the inputs from your instructor, Cadet Wing Commander, Cadet Flight Commander, and Cadet PT instructor. Cadet hierarchy writes reports regarding every cadet. They have weekly staff meetings discussing cadet status.
Commander's are ADAF. They are at least an O5. They are signing their name on the line when they support you. They are going to listen to staff. Larger the det., less they know you. The smaller the det., the more you are in the spotlight.
Personally, if you get in as foreign language major; critical manning, I wouldn't be worried because the board, like scholarship will place weight into the equation when it comes to selection due to your major. It would be an edge.
I just wouldn't jump to an assumption that you will get CoC support. OBTW, that Rec. usually in their bullet points state:
~~~ Number 1 cadet
~~~ One of my top cadets
~~~ Top 10, 20, 30% cadets . I.E. actual %
~~~ I support this cadet.
ADAF this is how they work it for PRF and OPRs. The board is filled with field grade officers. They can read between the lines. Number 1 or 1 of my top, translates differently than top 30% or I support. How the CoC phrases his/her rec will have a huge impact.
Finally, your score out of SFT also places an impact on your career field. How you rank out of SFT, will be placed into your OML. At SFT you will be ranked, and part of that is your PFA.
Your SAT score will be replaced with the AFOQT. The breakdown is still @ the same for the non-rated boards. PFA, AFOQT, cgpa, and Commander's rec., but SFT ranking is now added.
If you want to get your dream career field in OSI, you need to always keep the boards in mind.
Honestly, I would look into your colleges and validating Russian. You may be able to validate, major in Russian, and at the same time get a major in criminal justice. I would ask to go Intel, not OSI.
This can also help you as an ADAF member. If you were my kid, I would say from a long run perspective do it. You could also get the AF to pick up your law degree. Think about it...the US govt., such as Homeland, UN, DOD would pick you up in a heartbeat when you can bolt. You would have Intel experience, legal experience and Russian. Intel for cyber with a law degree and a TS clearance. and you probably can write your own ticket.
Please read this link from here.
http://www.serviceacademyforums.com/showthread.php?t=33157
The gist is for GS jobs it is being that one candidate that has it all. Plot it out correctly and you can be sitting pretty. As others have stated if you need a TS clearance, the fact you were born in Russia may be an issue, but it is not something to think of as a No Go. It is to be seen as more paperwork.