Statistical chances of being appointed to USAFA

R

Rocko

10-Year Member
Joined
Mar 29, 2013
Messages
327
Having seen some demand lately for probabilities of being appointed, I have decided to take my vast knowledge of the Admissions process and provide some statistics I have calculated on my own. I am so confident in my statistics that I virtually guarantee they are 100 percent accurate.

Chances of being admitted

No app submitted: 0%
3Q'd without a nomination: 0%
Not 3Q'd but with a nomination: 0%
3Q'd with a nomination: 50% (You either will be appointed or won't)
Previously appointed: 100%

Chances of knowing by July 1st: 100%

:jump1:

There is no need to thank me for doing this research as I'm always happy to help!

On a serious note having a son in your shoes a year ago, you have done all you can and you WILL get an answer soon (Albeit not soon enough). Enjoy your senior year and try not to dwell on this site looking for chances. Remember a watched pot never boils. I wish you all the best luck!
 
Genius stats and advice! I'd like to add, if you are reading this, you are an AMAZING candidate to have made it this far! Whatever is His way, all is well!
... and if you really want statistics on your personal chances, there is this site called parchment.com and you enter in every bit of detail about your academics, sports, ECs, etc. and it calculates your chances for whatever colleges you enter. Not sure how accurate it is, but it will keep you busy while waiting....
 
Lol, that's hilarious! Great stats! I am so glad we have people who are so experienced to sort all of these out for us, or else HOW would we ever figure it all out? :biglaugh:
Puma, you're amazing! I absolutely LOVE all of the outstanding and encouraging people on this forum!!! Seriously, without all of your encouragement and humor, I would be insane at this point!
 
It's kind of funny how life works. My son was applying last year and couldn't wait for an answer. Then couldn't wait for BCT to start. Ater that he couldn't wait for BCT to end. Now he can't wait for Recognition. Seems like when you are young life seems to move to slow and you are always trying to rush to the next step.

Eventually though you get old like some of us and wish you could start slowing time down. For me it is going WAY too fast!

And Puma is right. If you have managed to scale all the hurdles and find yourself still in the game then you have plenty to be proud of.
 
Rocko. Usually each year someone asks me to re-post the "Emotions of the Academy". I forgot this year. But your post reminded me, and for those of you who's sons/daughters are currently Doolies at the academy, and for those of you who will receive an appointment this year, it will definitely make sense. Here you go.
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The Emotions of the Air Force Academy:

1) Get accepted to the academy: EMOTION: HELL YEA!!!!!
2) I-Day (In-processing Day): EMOTION: Why do I feel like I'm going to puke?
3) 1st half of BCT: EMOTION: Well, at least I'm not the only one who looks out of place. Please look at someone else besides me. PLEASE!!!!
4) 2nd half of BCT (Jack's): EMOTION: This ain't so bad. This part is pretty fun. GOD, I'm so tired. What the hell did I get myself into???? Please let me sleep!!!!
5) Last week of BCT: EMOTION: I'm almost there. This is the hardest part. After this, the rest of the academy will be a breeze. (Delusional thoughts. Probably the lack of oxygen and sleep)
6. A-Day: EMOTION: YES! I'm really a cadet now. All the others will respect me now. (More lack of oxygen and definite lack of sleep)
7. Classes Start: EMOTION: What? Who? Where? When? ARGGGGG!!! MY HEAD HURTS.
8. Mid-term: EMOTION: Holy crap! What if I forget? What if I fail? What will my parents think? Can I get kicked out for this? ARGGGGG!!!! Head Still Hurts
9. Thanksgiving break: EMOTION: Yes!!! Out of this place! Do I really want to come back? State U looks really good right now. My friends at home seem pretty happy. What about me????
10. Back to school getting ready for finals: EMOTION: This sucks!!! I don't need this crap!!! I can transfer my credits and go to another school. God why am I doing this???
11. Finals Finished Christmas Break: EMOTION: PEACE and GOOD WILL TOWARDS MEN!!!! Yea, it sucks there, but that's 1 semester down and 7 more to go. Put this place out of my mind.
12. Return to academy: EMOTION: Take a deep breath. New Room Mates; Cool. Different classes. Cool. Still cold and dark a lot. That sucks. Well, I guess I can give it one more semester. See what happens.
13. R-DAY: (Recognition Day) EMOTION: I really AM a Cadet now. They actually DO RESPECT me. "At least a little bit". OK; it could be worse.

REPEAT STEPS 7-12; seven more times. Throw in a spring break before the end of #2,4,6,and 8. Throw a Summer break prior to 3,5, and 7. Stamina grows stronger each semester. See the light at the end of the tunnel. Every couple of days remember how much this place sucks. Every OTHER couple of days remember that this place ain't so bad. Every once in a while realize that this place is pretty cool. ALWAYS REMEMBER WHY YOU WANTED TO COME HERE AND WHAT YOUR GOAL IS!
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It's odd because I have met former cadets who say they loved their time at USAFA, and then those who hated it and for several years after graduating tell every prospective candidate to run the other direction as fast as possible! I guess it's just up to the personality of the individual.
 
baileydb said:
I guess it's just up to the personality of the individual.
Click to expand...
Bailey - That is definitely the case. My DS is a C4C - squadron 40. I haven't heard one complaint from him all year. Of course, he isn't much of a complainer and maybe wouldn't tell me even if something bothered him, but the worst comment he has made was during BCT. He wrote that "it didn't suck so much anymore when they had to do push ups because someone screwed up." He said that they had gotten so tight that they didn't mind the punishment, because you knew they would do push ups for you when you screwed up. I thought that was incredibly telling about how close he had gotten to everyone. Every time I ask him about some concern that gets raised on here, he tells me not to worry. He gets plenty of sleep, he has plenty of food, classes are challenging, but extra instruction is always available if necessary, he is always able to find cell phone reception, he makes it thru the knowledge tests, training sessions and stays warm when it is cold outside!

There are a lot of unknowns at the academy - there are a lot of unknowns in life. Until you experience them yourself, no one can tell you exactly how you will react to them. What greatly bothers someone else to the point where they want to throw up their hands and quit may only be a mild annoyance to you. In all things, stay positive, expect the worst and hope for the best.
 
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