Drew; the whole "What are my chances" questions are just too difficult to answer. Let me just say; and it will probably be asked again many times; that if you are taking the most difficult classes that your school offers, and you have higher than a 3.65 unweighted GPA, and you have higher than a 27 ACT and/or 1900 SAT, and you've played/lettered in varsity sports, volunteer time, leadership positions, and are physically fit; then you have a very good chance.
But here is the problem with your "Chances". MOST TIMES; you aren't competing against others in a different state or part of the country. Most times, you are competing against others in your district and in your state. Remember 2 things: You HAVE to have a nomination in order to get to the military academies and the person nominating you is only allowed so many nominees at the academy. So let me put in a scenario that is a little discouraging but accurate.
You have a 3.9 gpa, IB/AP classes, 1950 SAT 29 ACT, bla bla bla. Another applicant from a different state has a 3.75 gpa, mostly AP classes, 1900 SAT 28 ACT, bla bla bla. He/She gets an appointment to the academy and you don't. WHY? Because He/she was the highest applicant of those applying in her district/state and go the number 1 nominee slot from their rep/senator. You were #3 of those competing in your district/state and your rep/senator only had 1 available slot.
Then you have to realize that there are numerous categories for nominations; there are a lot applicants who will apply to many other top name schools, etc... So, some might think that an applicant from Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, etc... has a better chance than someone in New York, Virginia, Florida, Texas, etc... Because the later states have many more applicants. Well, there's too many apples and oranges here and they can't be compared. Basically, most congressional districts in a state has roughly the same amount of people. So your competition is from the same area. So your congressman/woman knows who you are from any local newspaper articles, sports, etc... Whereby the rural states might only have 1 representative e.g. Wyoming for the entire state. It's a big state and the rep doesn't know you from adam. But they know the person from their home town more than you. On the other hand, those apply from rural states also only apply to their state University and some similar. So if they get the academy appointment, they are more likely to accept it. Where as in the larger states that also has many large and prestigious colleges like UCLA, USC, Stanford, etc... or NYU, Cornell, Princeton, etc...; many academy applicants there who receive an appointment may also have received acceptance to one of the other local prestigious schools and the academy was a backup. Therefor you might have a better chance in a larger city/state area. Also, there are a lot of districts in the united states that aren't very PRO-MILITARY. Even though they have hundreds of thousands of residents, they could literally have ZERO applicants. And that is common. Trust me; there are representatives in the congress that don't have their maximum alloted constituents at the Air Force Academy. Therefor getting accepted is much easier there than from even a rural school.
The point of my long winded post is that you can't ask "What are my chances" and expect a "REAL" answer. The answer doesn't exist. Only if you ask the question to your congressman/woman, senator, or local ALO who has mentored many LOCAL applicants through the process. None of us know who your competition is. If you had those stats in my state last year (Class of 2012); I would say you were probably a shoe in. Why? Because only one student had a close to perfect application with gpa, class rank, sat/act, bla bla bla. But he received a presidential nomination, so that took him out of the competition from the rest of the applicants. Also, the other 4.0 gpa student had a medical situation that the air force wouldn't waiver. So your odds would have been kick but. The ALO in this area had 4 applicants and 3 made it to the air force academy. The 4th accepted Navy. However, this year, I'm not sure if your stats would have been enough. This year, the ALO for this area didn't have 1 applicant accepted to the air force academy. State wide there were less. Why? Because our 1 representative and 2 senators; just like every other one in the country; is only allowed so many slots. Ours are pretty full.
So the only real guarantees in the process, and even those aren't 100%, is that if you're gpa for ALL of high school is a 4.0 UNWEIGHTED; You ARE #1 ranked in your class; you've take EVERY difficult class that your school offers; you have a 30+ ACT/1900+ SAT; you are a 3 year varsity letter athlete; you have numerous leadership positions like boy/girl's state, class officer, etc...; you do hundreds of hours of volunteer time; and other extra-curricular activities; and have your application 100% COMPLETED by 1 August; then I would say that you will most likely have a 98% shot of being the #1 nominee in your district/state and therefor almost guaranteed to receive a LOA and receiving an appointment. ANYTHING SHY of this and there's way too many variables. Your district/state isn't our district/state. Your classes aren't our classes. You aren't competing against applicants around the country. Too many variables. Best of luck. Mike....
But Mate I truly hope you the best, and we could possibly become friends, and go through B.C.T together
). anyways like I said, if you're determined there's no way you can't get an A in that class. good luck to you
