Here is something to understand from a different view, i.e. someone with no bone in the fight.
As stated earlier, the slate must be submitted by the end of Jan. due to the regulations set forth by the govt.
Here's how I see it being rare from a nom on the original 10 getting knocked off that slate prior to the official cut off date when discussing a competitive state. It comes down to the 3 Qs for an apptmt.
1. Academics
~ I highly doubt that any of the 10 on that slate are not deemed academically competitive. Think about it. This MoC has a back up slate, do you think that anyone on their top 10 submitted did not meet the min SAT or ACT?
2. CFA
~ The slate must be submitted by the end of Jan., but the candidate has until end of Feb. to submit their CFA. Hence, USNA can't and won't scratch them off their slate just because they have yet to submit their scores, especially since they have 1 more month before the drop date.
3. DoDMERB
~ If a candidate is DQ and has a nom., the SAs are going to start the waiver process. Waivers can take months. AGAIN see above regarding when by law the OFFICIAL slate must be submitted.
~~ They can't scratch off a candidate because they have yet to hear from the board that waives the DQ. The commissioning source, not DoDMERB determines if they will waive.
So, jmpo, I am still in the soften the blow lane. I would move on and expect NO nom.
Finally, let's go with his 10 alt. slate. I would have your DS call and ask how they are ranking on the 10 alt slate. IOWS, if the liaison says they are number 9 on that back up slate, chances are really slim they will make his slate that must be submitted by Jan. 31st. I don't want to be Janie Raincloud. I think Sen. Nelson should have done that instead of the BS option you didn't make my top 10, BUT IF... Too many candidates don't understand the system and really believe there is a lot of hope left, since they don't understand the system. If 1 got picked from the alternate slate to get on his official slate I would be shocked.