I know most of you are seeing noms come down, but each MOC works on their own schedule.
What you probably should be looking deeper into is if the MOCS "talk to each other or spread the wealth". If they do, then that would really tell you how competitive the state is, the more competitive, the more likely that they spread the wealth, resulting in only one nom.
I know NY and CO spread the wealth. I believe TX, VA and MD also follow this method.
I am sure you can call the Cong McKeon's office and ask historically how many applications do you get for USXX from the district? If the office says 75+ for USXX, than you need to realize that it will be even higher for the Senators, since every candidate will apply from every district, if CA has 30 or so districts, multiply that out with even an average of 25 per district. That is a lot of candidates to go through. Now, add into the scenario they talk. This will make it even longer to decide the final slate.
We were from NC, two yrs ago, all apps to all 3 MOCs were due 10/15. Sen Dole released her list Dec 21st. Sen Burr mailed the applicants that made the interview cut around the same time for a Jan interview. The nom came @ 10 days later. Our MOC made his selection in Jan also. It can take months before the notification occurs. MOC slates are not required by regs to be submitted until the end of Jan. Many MOCs will wait so they can have the latest SAT and the 7th semester grades.