USAFA Applications down 27.6%?

We had occasion to talk with NASS and STEM camp detailers amongst our youngster sponsor mids this summer. They were appalled at the lack of general fitness. One of the NASS detailers, a tag along friend of a sponsor mid NASS detailer, related how they had a NASSter who quit 5 minutes into an easy-paced mile run, saying it was too hard. The mids heard (admitted hearsay here, but I wouldn’t be surprised) the mom called the Commandant, who of course tasked the OIC, NASS to respond, to the complaint that you couldn’t expect attendees to be made to run a mile, that they should get waivers if they had high grades and were otherwise high achievers. 🙄
And people wonder why and lament the academies liking athletes so much. Maybe it’s because they can pass a physical and run more than 500 yards without getting tired and quitting.
 
We had occasion to talk with NASS and STEM camp detailers amongst our youngster sponsor mids this summer. They were appalled at the lack of general fitness. One of the NASS detailers, a tag along friend of a sponsor mid NASS detailer, related how they had a NASSter who quit 5 minutes into an easy-paced mile run, saying it was too hard. The mids heard (admitted hearsay here, but I wouldn’t be surprised) the mom called the Commandant, who of course tasked the OIC, NASS to respond, to the complaint that you couldn’t expect attendees to be made to run a mile, that they should get waivers if they had high grades and were otherwise high achievers. 🙄
When I detailed NASS, I never had parents call, but I wouldn’t be surprised. NASS is there as a screener to some degree. People find out if the military/Academy is the right place for them. I saw more than a few not do too well on the CFA.
 
All of this brings to mind an old TED Talk I recently watched…


Here’s hoping society can find a way to turn things around, although I wouldn’t count on it.
 
I think it boils down to the academies still requiring SAT scores, while every other school in the country dropped the requirement entirely. Those kids who were half hearted applicants in years past didn’t bother applying this year because they didn’t want to take the SATs. 2025 wasn’t effected to the same degree because most hard charging kids had already taken their SAT’s by the time the lockdowns occurred.
I don't think "every other school in the country dropped the requirement entirely." If they did, both SAT and ACT folks would have closed up shop. Did many? Oh yes, almost 75% did during COVID19 issues...some put them off for a specified number of years, California disallowed them, and there are others.

But they're still used by a good many schools. And many scholarship groups/organizations still require them.
 
If the 27.6% decline in applications can be mainly attributed to those who won’t take the SAT/ACT or can’t pass the CFA, then perhaps that’s a trade-off the military is willing to make. Quality should trump quantity.

Remember too that the DOD SAs typically counted anyone who opened an application as a candidate. That’s a pretty low bar. So if the 27.6% includes a lot of these types, I’d think that’s OK too.

There are some interesting theories being floated. Hard to know what’s correlation vs. causation. Also this may be a mere blip. Will be more interesting if it repeats itself next year and we have more clarity about the “why.” We’re living in very odd times, and this just might be one of those oddities. We’ll see.
 
Comparing 2025 to 2026:
Applications went from 11,599 to 8,393 (down 3,206, 27.6%)
Qualified candidates went from 3,279 to 1,775 (down 1,504, 45.9%)
Of the 3,206 drop in applicants, 1,504 (46.9%) were qualified candidates
The % of applicants that were qualified candidates - 2025 (28.3%), 2026 (21.1%)

So, it is a disproportionate loss of the qualified candidates (as has been suggested upthread). Either the kids who would have been qualified candidates are simply fewer (obesity, mental health dx, poor academics during COVID, etc.) and/or those kids who would have contributed to the qualified candidate pool didn't apply and went elsewhere. Both are likely at play.

The numbers will undoubtedly improve next year, simply due to statistical probability and regression to the mean. Any COVID-related factors should be less influential next year, so it will be interesting to see if trends in obesity, politics, etc. have a lingering impact on applications.

For additional comparison, here are the numbers for the only other year I could find...2019 (attached):
Applicants 9,122
Qualified candidates 2,528 (27.7%)
 

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I just walked into my living room and caught the audio end of a newscast, stating ’college applications down 1 (point something, didnt hear clearly) million’

listened for the story to repeat and it did not.

But clearly there is something going on with college applications, in general.
 
USNA 2026 full stats have not been released yet, but found the following for the past couple of years for total applications:

2023: 16,332
2024: 15,699
2025: 16,265
2026: 12,927

a 20.6% decrease in applications from 2025 to 2026. 3.6% increase from 2024 to 2025

Another interesting difference between 2025 and 2026 is the drop in recruited varsity athletes (91% vs 84%) 91% seems to have been the norm in the past.
What are you talking about? Drop in recruited athletes? You mean a drop in the number of admitted students who were varsity athletes in high school? There is a big difference between being a varsity athlete in high school and a recruited athlete at a Division 1 school.

Assuming you are referring to a drop in admitted kids who were varsity athletes in high school, it probably has everything to do with two lost seasons of many sports due to Covid.
 
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Just my $0.10 worth...

ALO's were briefed on this a while back and were given numbers a bit different from those shared here. Suffice it to say, they're "close enough" to not be worth much clarification/discussion.

We were also told that the RRS folks had been told "by their counterparts at USMA/USNA" that they had seen a similar impact. I don't know if their numbers were the "same or close" or what but RRS said it was significant at all three of the "big" academies. They didn't discuss KP or CGA.

What I've noticed recently (ie: Pet Peeve)...

Obesity was mentioned. Yes, that's a small issue but the bigger issue is an overall lack of fitness. What I've found in the past 20+ years is a steady decline in overall physical fitness ability. I'll use me as an example. I'm "old" according to my students. When I was in HS, oh those years ago (think Carter Era)...everyone took PE. And in "boys" PE we did silly things like the Presidential Physical Fitness Test (for a grade). We did pushups and pullups, and we climbed ropes from the gym floor to the ceiling rafters, rang a bell, and climbed down. We climbed cargo nets and had races to the top, and back down. And we ran miles...and we played games, etc., but everything was geared to physical strength improvement and cardio fitness.

Today...PE is often "an elective" that is waived if you take something else or are on a team, etc. I get kids enrolling in JROTC because the school district will waive their PE requirement if they do two years. I see healthy appearing males (6', 175) come to me and when we do the AFJROTC fitness test...they average 2 pullups (dead hang, pronated grip, pull their chin above the bar, return to full hang, repeat). Yes, I said TWO. Their average pushups (break 90 degrees going down, return to fully up, repeat) to be less than 25. Their mile run average is over 8:30 with most coming in near 10:00. Young ladies are comparable except they almost never can do a pullup and less than 10 pushups.

Kids aren't pressed physically in school. If you could test fitness by testing their thumb abilities...well, that'd be a different story. And it's telling. Last year, and I apologize as I didn't write down the precise number, but in my state we lost @16% of our candidates in the application process due to CFA failures. IMHO (ie: I don't have anything official on this) USAFA has gotten so used to seeing CFA failures, they appear to "almost" automatically offer a second chance. I say "almost" in that I've seen times where they didn't, but it's been a long time ago.

Okay, I'm going to climb off the soap box. I could take this for a long drive but...

Steve
USAFA ALO
USAFA '83
I have commented on this in the past but it bears repeating. My area BGOs and I have an annual dinner and at the last several dinners, the BGOs who are alumni have been discussing the CFA and how many candidates seem to be spending lots of time and energy prepping including at least one I know of whose parent hired a consultant to help this (two varsity sport captain) applicant get through the CFA. Every single one of the alumni BGOs present related not having had to train for the CFA when they had to take it but it seems to be very different today. It is perplexing to me personally and to my fellow BGOs how multi-sport athlete candidates are having trouble with the CFA but that is apparently the landscape we're in today.
 
I have had several coworkers tell me the 'Wokeness" of todays military is a huge turn off to some parents and that might be a big influence on applications. Not trying to get political here, but it seems to be a driver on applications and the AF seems to be the most effected.
 
I have had several coworkers tell me the 'Wokeness" of todays military is a huge turn off to some parents and that might be a big influence on applications. Not trying to get political here, but it seems to be a driver on applications and the AF seems to be the most effected.
Quite a bit of bad publicity with the way the mandate was handled with those 3 cadets. Breaks down trust. Links don't even work on the usafa edu website, the cadet life portion. And from experience the ALO only responded to questions twice the whole time during application. Maybe in the past it wasn't necessary to try to recruit a good candidate pool.
 
I have had several coworkers tell me the 'Wokeness" of todays military is a huge turn off to some parents and that might be a big influence on applications. Not trying to get political here, but it seems to be a driver on applications and the AF seems to be the most effected.
I’ve heard this line of thought before. Personally, the reason I chose to go to USAFA was because of their “wokeness”. I wanted to join a branch that valued the individual and what they have to bring to the mission. I wanted to join a branch that wasn’t afraid to be expressive of their support of marginalized communities. I wanted to join a branch that valued diversity. I’m so glad that I made that decision. I have loved every minute of my time as a cadet.

My thinking as for the decline is simple: childhood obesity. I truly believe that one of the greatest national security threats is obesity. CDC reports that in 2018, 71% of young people in the United States would not be able to join the military if they wanted to. This is due to being overweight, having educational deficits and other factors. My greatest fear, is that the United States won’t be able to effectively fight our nations adversaries because we don’t possess qualified recruits.

Here are some resources that elaborate on the issue more:


 
I have had several coworkers tell me the 'Wokeness" of todays military is a huge turn off to some parents and that might be a big influence on applications. Not trying to get political here, but it seems to be a driver on applications and the AF seems to be the most effected.
I can assure you absolutely no one I know that is considering enlisting, applying now or a current pleb thought or talked at all about this woke stuff.

The only people I see going on and on about woke are indeed political.

Parents are not afraid of woke as much as they are the combat for their kids.

I do know one parent that was not supportive of USAFA for their child a few years ago because of the whole Christian pressure stuff that was there.
 
I’ve heard this line of thought before. Personally, the reason I chose to go to USAFA was because of their “wokeness”. I wanted to join a branch that valued the individual and what they have to bring to the mission. I wanted to join a branch that wasn’t afraid to be expressive of their support of marginalized communities. I wanted to join a branch that valued diversity. I’m so glad that I made that decision. I have loved every minute of my time as a cadet.

My thinking as for the decline is simple: childhood obesity. I truly believe that one of the greatest national security threats is obesity. CDC reports that in 2018, 71% of young people in the United States would not be able to join the military if they wanted to. This is due to being overweight, having educational deficits and other factors. My greatest fear, is that the United States won’t be able to effectively fight our nations adversaries because we don’t possess qualified recruits.

Here are some resources that elaborate on the issue more:



This factor should not have resulted in a 20+% drop in one year. It would be gradual.
 
I think it boils down to the academies still requiring SAT scores, while every other school in the country dropped the requirement entirely. Those kids who were half hearted applicants in years past didn’t bother applying this year because they didn’t want to take the SATs. 2025 wasn’t effected to the same degree because most hard charging kids had already taken their SAT’s by the time the lockdowns occurred.

Comparing 2025 to 2026:
Applications went from 11,599 to 8,393 (down 3,206, 27.6%)
Qualified candidates went from 3,279 to 1,775 (down 1,504, 45.9%)
Of the 3,206 drop in applicants, 1,504 (46.9%) were qualified candidates
The % of applicants that were qualified candidates - 2025 (28.3%), 2026 (21.1%)

So, it is a disproportionate loss of the qualified candidates (as has been suggested upthread). Either the kids who would have been qualified candidates are simply fewer (obesity, mental health dx, poor academics during COVID, etc.) and/or those kids who would have contributed to the qualified candidate pool didn't apply and went elsewhere. Both are likely at play.

The numbers will undoubtedly improve next year, simply due to statistical probability and regression to the mean. Any COVID-related factors should be less influential next year, so it will be interesting to see if trends in obesity, politics, etc. have a lingering impact on applications.

For additional comparison, here are the numbers for the only other year I could find...2019 (attached):
Applicants 9,122
Qualified candidates 2,528 (27.7%)
I think the mean SAT score between the two years is interesting and tells a story. It is considerably higher for 2025 vs 2026 (or any previous class). CO 2025 SAT testing time was cut in half, many didn't have the opportunity to retest past January so scores should've been lower? They DID have months of sitting behind a computer at home and time to complete the intensive SA applications without distractions caused by in-person school. Could it be that higher achieving students who wouldn't normally have time just decided to complete the applications?
 
I’ve heard this line of thought before. Personally, the reason I chose to go to USAFA was because of their “wokeness”. I wanted to join a branch that valued the individual and what they have to bring to the mission. I wanted to join a branch that wasn’t afraid to be expressive of their support of marginalized communities. I wanted to join a branch that valued diversity. I’m so glad that I made that decision. I have loved every minute of my time as a cadet.

My thinking as for the decline is simple: childhood obesity. I truly believe that one of the greatest national security threats is obesity. CDC reports that in 2018, 71% of young people in the United States would not be able to join the military if they wanted to. This is due to being overweight, having educational deficits and other factors. My greatest fear, is that the United States won’t be able to effectively fight our nations adversaries because we don’t possess qualified recruits.

Here are some resources that elaborate on the issue more:


The US military has for decades lead in woke. Whatever that means.

The military was way ahead of the country with integration (that was woke back in the day and many decided they did not then want to attend a SA if they admitted “those people”)

The military was considered woke when they admitted woman to the SA. (I can remember the outrage)

Certainly woke when they admitted gays. (More outrage)

if people would just say——I don’t like this——at least I could understand what they were against. Woke makes no sense to me. .
 
Many interesting points here. What surprised me was not just the drop in applicants, but the fact that 1375 of the 1775 qualified applicants were offered appointments. Only 400 qualified applicants were not offered appointments. That's startling to me. That means 77% of qualified applicants were offered appointments. In the 2025 class, only 43% of the qualified applicants were offered admission (1428 of 3279).

As for reasons for the decline, it's probably a combination of everything mentioned. Airlines are desperate for pilots, the job market is hot, and many kids don't want the vaccine. Obesity is a big issue as well.
 
I have commented on this in the past but it bears repeating. My area BGOs and I have an annual dinner and at the last several dinners, the BGOs who are alumni have been discussing the CFA and how many candidates seem to be spending lots of time and energy prepping including at least one I know of whose parent hired a consultant to help this (two varsity sport captain) applicant get through the CFA. Every single one of the alumni BGOs present related not having had to train for the CFA when they had to take it but it seems to be very different today. It is perplexing to me personally and to my fellow BGOs how multi-sport athlete candidates are having trouble with the CFA but that is apparently the landscape we're in today.
This is interesting. I also did not train for the CFA when I applied. I could not do a pull-up but handled the flexed arm hang just fine. I was a mediocre athlete at best but loved playing sports and being active. Niether did my father-in-law (USMA 70) or my husband (USMA 96). My ds sort-of trained in that he worked on his push-ups and pull-ups a bit after Crossfit each day and practiced the basketball throw a few times. He is a great Crossfitter and was the team captain of his lacrosse team. He would have passed without trianing or practicing. However, he is considered a pretty extreme althlete to most of his friends. I think he'd be fairly average 20 years ago. He knows a few people who really wanted to go to an SA but didn't apply because they knew they couldn't get in either because of academics/test scores or fitness level. It was too much work when you know the answer will be no.

I think your observances about 2 sport athletes training for the CFA speaks volumes about the state of sports today and sport-specific training vs. well-rounded training. I see a lot of early specialization down here in TX.
I can assure you absolutely no one I know that is considering enlisting, applying now or a current pleb thought or talked at all about this woke stuff.

The only people I see going on and on about woke are indeed political.

Parents are not afraid of woke as much as they are the combat for their kids.

I do know one parent that was not supportive of USAFA for their child a few years ago because of the whole Christian pressure stuff that was there.
This is not the case down here in South Texas. Many parents would be the opposite. However, you are likely correct for many areas of the country.
 
This is interesting. I also did not train for the CFA when I applied. I could not do a pull-up but handled the flexed arm hang just fine. I was a mediocre athlete at best but loved playing sports and being active. Niether did my father-in-law (USMA 70) or my husband (USMA 96). My ds sort-of trained in that he worked on his push-ups and pull-ups a bit after Crossfit each day and practiced the basketball throw a few times. He is a great Crossfitter and was the team captain of his lacrosse team. He would have passed without trianing or practicing. However, he is considered a pretty extreme althlete to most of his friends. I think he'd be fairly average 20 years ago. He knows a few people who really wanted to go to an SA but didn't apply because they knew they couldn't get in either because of academics/test scores or fitness level. It was too much work when you know the answer will be no.

I think your observances about 2 sport athletes training for the CFA speaks volumes about the state of sports today and sport-specific training vs. well-rounded training. I see a lot of early specialization down here in TX.

This is not the case down here in South Texas. Many parents would be the opposite. However, you are likely correct for many areas of the country.
And do you have any idea of what the parents of south Texas are so upset about that they would not have their kids serve their country in the US military During a time of combat deployments or future combat deployments?

is this about the vax?

If not I would be curious specifically what they are so upset about. Especially if you think it actually impacts admissions.
 
We live in a large city that had some of the most stringent COVID restrictions in the country . DD had her track and swim season eliminated , gyms were closed and her classes were online . I can see that being a factor in the CFA . We also went through periods of reopening briefly and then lockdowns again when many other cities didn’t. She did have to train for it , specifically the pull-ups . We ordered a pull up bar online and installed it in her bedroom and she was able to increase her pull-ups from two (barely) to 7. Her brother who is older and played varsity volleyball and basketball in high school , was unable to workout or participate in intramurals in college because of covid restrictions . He trained intensely for a physical for the Troopers, and passed , by one push-up and just under the 1.5 mile time required . DD was on this forum a lot when she was applying and there are some posts and threads that suggest that doing well on the CFA seemed like an important part of the application . Someone earlier on this thread referenced to qualified candidates deciding not to apply to a SA because they couldn’t pass the CFA . Honestly , in my humble opinion , if a candidate truly wants to apply to a SA , they will find a way to train and pass the CFA .
 
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