PLEASE CRITICIZE AS MUCH AS YOU WANT

I am not a gambling person, but there is no way I would say to my kid to bank on that option at all. I would say to them that the reality is you have @1% of that occurring at all.

Let's say they go USMA. but want to go ADAF. The Army has to agree to release them, AND the AF has to agree to pick them up. Even you are stating there are 8-10 in the queue, let's say 5 get picked up. Do the math. Class of 2021 will start with @1100+ and will commission @900, it is less than 1% on a good day.

If you want to serve and are okay serving in any branch, than yes do it by all means. However, if you are like my DS than don't. Go the ROTC or OTS route. As I stated before my DS was an AF brat, but his Dad was an exception to the rule for most officers. He flew the F15E so DS saw the fighter word. Bullet was an ALO, not the USAFA ALO type like Christcorp and Stealth, but the guy that jumped in with the 82nd Airborne to call in AF air strikes. He did a 2 yr tour as an ALO, so we lived the Army lifestyle...trust me the cliches of the AF being the corporate branch is true. Same as the cliche if the Army wanted you have a spouse they would have assigned you one.
~ I was married to Bullet for 5 yrs before he jumped out of perfectly good airplanes as an ALO with the Army. We were college sweethearts and dated throughout his ROTC years. (pinned on his butter bars). I thought I knew every acronym there was to know. I understood what red air and blue air was. I knew what he meant when he said that day he was doing a 4 v4 double turn. Heck, I even knew what they meant by the term pickle...it means your wife is in labor. However, we get to Bragg, and at 5:00 a.m.the morning after we arrived I feel him kiss me goodbye and say I am going to PT and I will be back in a few hours. Groggy I just say I love you and close my eyes to go back to sleep. 30 seconds later my mind takes over and does an acronym search...what is PT? Can't figure it out at all which meant now I am wide awake and waiting to find out what the heck that term meant!
~~ Just saying for the AF they don't do mandatory PT as a squadron. If they do, it is called golfing!

It is a different world and when you have to live it 24/7/365 for 5 years I will never waiver from my statement that an SA education just because it is an SA is not wise in my decision especially if you have ROTC and plan B scholarships in hand. You can stay at your school, and transfer from AFROTC to NROTC or AROTC with maybe the only hardship is losing your ROTC scholarship. You will still commission and nobody in the AD world cares about whether or not you are an SA grad, ROTC or OTS. They care about how you do your job.

OBTW, for those that say spread the wealth from an MOC nomination perspective, here is again why I disagree.
1. My DS like every other candidate had to list on his nomination packet what SAs he was requesting a nomination for. He put only 1. USAFA. Line 2 and 3 were left empty. He received all 3 MOC nominations.
~ Nobody held it against him that he did not want to go any other SA. During his MOC interviews they asked him point blank why he did not ask for any other nomination. He answered honestly...because even if I do not get a nomination to USAFA, I will than move onto plan B, ROTC. It was AF and AF only
~ By having only USAFA and not gaming the system, he got 3 more chances before he had to hit the national pool. Had he gamed it and put USAFA #1 on Cong. slate, USNA #1 on Sen A slate. and USMA on Sen B slate. He would have had only 1 slate to win that appointment for USAFA before hitting the pool.

I get it, it was a risk, but to him he wanted the option of 3 slates.

2. Our close friends DS came from a competitive state where they shared the wealth among the MoCs. IOWS, you get 1 nom., and 1 nom only. He decided that he wanted to follow in his Dad's footsteps and fly fighters, but instead of for the AF he wanted Navy. He only applied to USAFA and USNA. 2 of the 3 he placed USNA as number 1. The last he placed USAFA. Lo and behold he gets a principal, but to USAFA and no nom to USNA. His folks had the smarts to call that MoC and see if they would switch it to USNA. The staff said give us a few days to see if we can. Well the staff called the principal for USNA and she said, YES switch because USAFA was her 1st choice, not USNA. They both commissioned in 2012. He is an F18 pilot now.
~ The point is had she said no, he would have never gone to his number 1 SA choice.

Beware when you suggest to any poster here without knowing their state and if their MoCs talk you might be forcing their hand into a branch that they do not want to serve in, but may go down that road just say they are going to an SA.

My 0.01754 cents and with $2.07 more you can get a small coffee from Starbucks.
 
Thanks Pima,
I knew a few of you with a lot more operational experience would chime in and thanks. You are absolutely correct, the examples I used were definitely small small exception to the larger universe of applicants, nominees, and cadet/mids!
Again it is eye on the goal of being where you want to be by the most direct route, gaming or juicing the system is asking to be disappointed and being where you don't want/need to be.

PS I think about your handle here when I am out in COS. There is a sign on Powers or Academy that is PIMA something!!
 
My son applied to all three, and ultimately received his choice of any, but stuck with his first choice, USMA, where he is currently a Plebe. I think the decision to apply to all or only one of the academies comes down to why you are applying in the first place. My son wanted to serve, and wanted to lead soldiers. He also liked most of the commissioning options in each of the services, and he thought highly of each of the academies. He would have been delighted if he had only been accepted to any one of the academies, as he was and still is open and enthusiastic to serving as an officer in many different capacities. He definitely loved West Point best, and that is why he is there now.

I told my son when he was thinking about his options, that he is young, and probably over the course of the next ten years his interests, aptitudes and passions will modify and develop. What he thinks he may want to do in four years right now could change dramatically over time. This is true for the vast majority of 17 and 18 year olds, and therefore it is hard to tell a kid at that age, decide right now what service you are going to be in, potentially for the rest of your life, and what job you will have. Thus, unless a kid has the wisdom of Confucius, I think it is responsible to apply to all of the academies. As my son said many times, "it would be such a tough choice on which academy to attend, I hope I get an appointment to only one, so its like God is deciding for me".

The other common phrase I dispute is that kids should not consider the school itself, but should decide solely on the service. In addition to my points above, I think that both because the academic environment does make a difference to your future, and how much you look forward to your service, the academy itself is VERY relevant. Additionally, you are there for four years. That's a long time, and college years are meaningful years for anyone, but particularly for an academy student, who is virtually locked into the school for the entire period of time. If you don't love the school, you may not even stay, or stay, but hate it there, and perhaps do poorly as a result.
 
brovol. I understand what you're saying, just not sure I can agree with it. Here's some points.

1. No kid, and I mean NO KID, knows what s/he is getting into with going to the academy. They won't have any idea until they are actually there. I've seen first hand too many who've said they've wanted it their WHOLE LIFE...... Then they get accepted and quit 3 weeks into basic training.
2. The academy itself, is a very short period of time. 4 years; the military on the other hand is a minimum of 5 years after graduation. Depending on the job you are in, it could be 10 years. Even more if you go onto grad school. That is a LONG TIME.
3. If you really are passionate about a branch of military service, you can "PUT UP" with how you get commissioned. E.g. Academy, ROTC, OTS. But you can't love the academy and "PUT UP" with military service in a branch that you aren't passionate about.
4. Academically, each academy is pretty much on par with the quality of education with each other. So in the end, it is my opinion that it's the branch of military that you should be looking at. NOT the academy. That is very short term, good or bad, compared to the amount of time you will be serving.

Me personally, I would have LOVED to go to Annapolis. I love the beauty, location, history, etc. But what good is 4 years of joy, if there's no way on the face of the earth, that I would want to be aboard a ship, be at sea for months at a time, etc. I didn't even want that life as an option. I grew up on the water/ocean, I knew what I DIDN'T WANT. On the other hand, there are plenty of people that want that life; vs being in the air force where you WILL move basically every 3 years, having to meet and work with all new people all the time, where families are picked up and moved constantly; vs being in the army where they might not get to be involved with certain jobs that they are passionate about, such as space oriented occupations or similar. (These are just examples of differences, not open for actual debate)

My point is; if you truly want to serve in the military, there is a pretty good chance that you know HOW you would like to service. Even if you don't know exactly what you DO WANT, you probably know what YOU DON'T WANT. Any school, whether it's an academy, ROTC, or a civilian university and OTS, you can put up with. You CAN'T PUT UP with 10-20 years of service in a branch of the military.

Just my $0.03483899954943 (Inflation).
 
Christcorp said:
brovol. I understand what you're saying, just not sure I can agree with it. Here's some points.

1. No kid, and I mean NO KID, knows what s/he is getting into with going to the academy. They won't have any idea until they are actually there. I've seen first hand too many who've said they've wanted it their WHOLE LIFE...... Then they get accepted and quit 3 weeks into basic training.
2. The academy itself, is a very short period of time. 4 years; the military on the other hand is a minimum of 5 years after graduation. Depending on the job you are in, it could be 10 years. Even more if you go onto grad school. That is a LONG TIME.
3. If you really are passionate about a branch of military service, you can "PUT UP" with how you get commissioned. E.g. Academy, ROTC, OTS. But you can't love the academy and "PUT UP" with military service in a branch that you aren't passionate about.
4. Academically, each academy is pretty much on par with the quality of education with each other. So in the end, it is my opinion that it's the branch of military that you should be looking at. NOT the academy. That is very short term, good or bad, compared to the amount of time you will be serving.

Me personally, I would have LOVED to go to Annapolis. I love the beauty, location, history, etc. But what good is 4 years of joy, if there's no way on the face of the earth, that I would want to be aboard a ship, be at sea for months at a time, etc. I didn't even want that life as an option. I grew up on the water/ocean, I knew what I DIDN'T WANT. On the other hand, there are plenty of people that want that life; vs being in the air force where you WILL move basically every 3 years, having to meet and work with all new people all the time, where families are picked up and moved constantly; vs being in the army where they might not get to be involved with certain jobs that they are passionate about, such as space oriented occupations or similar. (These are just examples of differences, not open for actual debate)

My point is; if you truly want to serve in the military, there is a pretty good chance that you know HOW you would like to service. Even if you don't know exactly what you DO WANT, you probably know what YOU DON'T WANT. Any school, whether it's an academy, ROTC, or a civilian university and OTS, you can put up with. You CAN'T PUT UP with 10-20 years of service in a branch of the military.

Just my $0.03483899954943 (Inflation).
Click to expand...
I respect your thoughts, and understand it comes from experience. We can agree to disagree on a couple things I suspect. The four years of school at the academy is really not much less than the five year active duty commitment. I realize many will serve much longer than the five years, but only if he or she desires to. And the experiences at the different academies are not all the same from what I understand. My son's squad leader at West Point is a USNA midshipman (lol). He says that USNA is very different from USMA. His words were that "West Point is legit". My son interpretation was that WP was more serious about the military components, more by the book in terms or rules, and maybe more uptight. USNA being a bit more relaxed. Not suggesting one method is best, only that they are different.

I also think some of your points lend themselves to my argument. Specifically, it sounds like we both agree that a kid may likely have tremendous change in perspective form the time he/she makes a decision on where to go to school/academy and the time of graduation. One service may seem the best before accepting an academy appointment, but another may overwhelmingly be the choice by the time of graduation. So, putting all the stock on the service selection at age 17 or 18 is a risky thing; and some may argue unwise.

On the other hand, I won't argue that if you are one who fears the sea, navy service should be excluded from the get go.

My son is like many though. He wants to serve and lead. For him there are more things to do in each of the branches that are attractive to him than there are that are unattractive. His problem is he would love to do them all. For him, and many others, any of the academies would have been great. He picked West Point, and he is glad he did, but I suspect he would have felt that way if he landed elsewhere as well.
 
brovol - I've got news for you: there are tens of thousands of 17-18-19 year old "kids" who make the service and in many cases the job decision when they enlist. Why is it so hard for our best and brightest who aspire to attend a SA?

I can see it now: young enlisted from you name the service to new lt/ensign..."ma'am, why did you go to XX Academy?" New officer to subordinate, "we'll I didn't know where I wanted to go or what service I wanted to be part of...so I applied to all three...and went to the one who took me."

I say take the time to figure it out and then go forward with one and only one SA.

If Plan A (SA) doesn't work, Plan B (ROTC, OCC, PLC, enlistment) should be ready.

We're training leaders to make decisions. This a good first decision.

My daughter was being interviewed by a MOC panel and was asked if she was applying to any SA other than USAFA. She said no; that's where she wanted to go and she has no interest in the others. Board response: Good answer!

Semper Fi,
DTrain
 
Let me add this.....

Our son, now a C4C at USAFA applied to only the AFA. However he did also apply to ROTC.

Should you choose to apply to one, be prepared to have an answer as to why as our son was specifically asked this at one of his Senator interviews for a Nomination.

He was put on the spot pretty good at that one with that line of questioning.
 
DS wanted to be a grunt. 1st choice USNA/MO, 2nd choice USMA, 3rd choice NROTC/MO. Ended up with 4th choice...non-contract AROTC and still earned a scholarship...and still wants to be a grunt.
 
Each applicant has their own reasons for applying. And I never dog them whether it's just one academy and nothing else, or if it's all 5 academies and every ROTC availability. That is a personal choice.

And it is true that many want to simply serve. Just as it is true that for many applying, that the financially free education is the reason. Some realize that the academy shouldn't be a goal, but rather a stepping stone towards a goal. Or at the very least, one of many short term goals on the way to a long term goal.

There are many that know what they want when they graduate high school, and many that have no idea. Just as there are many who "THINK" they know what they want, until they get it, and realize it's not what they thought. Even the brat, who probably has the best insight of what they are getting into, concerning the academies and military, doesn't truly know until they get there. And there are plenty that have no idea what they want, but definitely knows what they don't want.

While on vacation in New Jersey, a relative asked if I would chat with their friend's son about the academy and the military in general. It as like looking at myself almost 40 years ago. When I asked why they wanted the military, and possibly the academy, they really didn't know why. But he did say....... "The military is probably my only way out of here, and if I don't do that, then I'll either wind up in a dead end job or hanging out on the streets, or in prison, or even dead". Yes, that was almost identical to why I initially joined the military. Why I stayed over 20 years is a different story. The point is, he didn't know really what he wanted, but he definitely knew what he didn't want. And yes, that was me too. There were 92 graduates in my senior class. Within 5 years, 4 were in jail and 2 were dead. And many just "hanging out".

So in the end, we should not judge an individual's motives for wanting to apply to the academies or being in the military. But it is important that they know what they are getting into. And if an individual has options, then they should explore those. I can honestly say, that even as an ALO, I talked som applicants into taking the full ride scholarships they had to Georgetown and wake forest over the academy. Because what they wanted, wasn't going to be found at the academy or in the military.

Those who know me, KNOW that I am 100% military. My blood runs Air Force blue. I've helped kids apply to the academy, ROTC, and enlist for 20 years. I have my season tickets to falcon football every year. Thudgate and those people ARE my and my wife's family. But I also realize the military isn't for everyone. And for those who do apply, they have many reasons why. And I've probably helped just as many kids get into traditional schools. The best we can do is find out what the kids want. Not the parents. Not their finances. When I speak to parents about the academy, I am polite and enthusiastic. But honestly... I don't give a rats a$$ what the parents want or think. It's not their life. They don't have to live that life. They don't have to sacrifice. Not like the kid does.

Sorry for the diatribe. But the military saved my life. It gave me a life. It gave me my wife and kids, 3 college degrees, traveled the world and worked/visited/lived in 15 countries, and now I am financially independent. But that's because I, with the help of God, made the decisions that were right for ME. Not my parents, family, or friends. My brother and sister did just fine staying in New Jersey. They have a great life. But for me, that life wouldn't have worked.

So If an applicant wants to apply to just one or all of the academies, that's fine. As long as they understand why, and it's THEIR decision, that is the ONLY thing that matters. Mike.
 
Rolling a die 3 times does not give you a 50% chance of rolling a specific number. The probability of rolling any number stays 1/6 no matter how many times you roll the dice. Please retake probability and statistics.
 
WBY
Thanks! Yep that's the place I was thinking about!!
Pima is doing some serious moonlighting!!
 
So, an applicant should only apply for 1 nomination. Because applying for all 3, or more if you qualify for a,presidential or other military nomination would be futile.

You are correct. You don't have a 50% chance of rolling a certain die because you rolled 3 times. Just like flipping a coin still gives you a 50% chance of heads or tails no matter how many times you flip said coin. But odds, and probability, are 2 totally different thing. Yes, I have many years of statistics classes. Think of appointments similar to BINGO. Once a number is called, it cannot be called again. That is where the probability rises.

If you apply to 5 academies, with 5 nominations each to 4 of them. (Coast guard doesn't do nominations). That means you have 5 chances, lottery tickets, etc. to each of them. Each slate that picks a winner, (appointee), is one less applicant competing for the remaining nomination slates. Likewise, each appointee to a particular academy, is no longer an applicant/competition, in the remaining academies that you applied to. Thus, the odds, do go up for you. Why, because the number of competitors competing with you, has gone down.

Add to this the non equal and disproportionate number of competitors in each pool of applicants, e.g Air Force, vs army, vs navy, etc. for a particular area, and indeed your odds and/or probability can and will change.

In simplest terms. If 5 people apply to all 5 academies, and the academies must take at least one person if available, then all 5 have a 100% chance of an appointment. If one person only applied to one academy, then there is a 80% chance that they possibly won't receive that appointment. Unless that particular academy chose last and the other 4 chose the other 4 people. So you are correct that the probability of a specific outcome doesn't change, the odds and probability that a winning outcome can improve, does change.

Imagine splitting a deck of cards trying to get the ace of spades. In theory, you have a 1 in 52 chance. However, all things aren't equal. If every time a person picks a wrong card, it is discarded, the the odds and probability increases. 5 people draw for the shorted straw. First person has 1 in 5 chance. If they don't make it, then the next person has a 1 in 4 chance. If they don't make it, the 3rd person has a 1 in 3 chance. And so on. That is how appointments are done. Each person receiving an appointment is no longer in the pool. For that academy, or any of the academies. But if you only buy a ticket for one academy, (application), then your odds are less of an appointment than if you were to apply to all 5.

The only way your probability rule works, is if each individual is only allowed to apply to one academy.
 
Thanks for all the sincere arguments, but the topic has gone WAY OFF. I am only applying to USAFA and that's not going to change so please provide me with advices and tips to help me get into the academy. AND PLEASE DO NOT START ANOTHER ARGUMENT ABOUT HOW THIS HAS NOT GONE WAY OFF THE TOPIC BECAUSE, FOR ME, IT HAS.

THANK YOU!
 
Well done wjk905! Take charge!

Your "to do" list:

-Decide on ACT or SAT and work to improve that score.

-CFA. Train for it. Then train some more.

-Alert teachers who will complete your evaluations and recommendations. Let them know what you are doing and why. Give them as much "heads-up" time as possible. That means completing your application as soon as possible.

-Practice interviewing. Practice, practice, practice. Focus on what you say...and how you say it. Confidence counts.

-Put meat on the bones of your activities/accomplishments. Telling me you're the capt of the soccer team is good. Tell me you led your team to the division, league, conference championship tells me something more. Maybe you turned a losing team into a winning team that finished above .500. That says something. What did you accomplish in your 100 hours of volunteer service? My kids' high school has compulsory volunteer hours as a grad requirement, not that I like or agree with it. But if everyone applying has 100 volunteer hours, what makes you stand-out? What was your part-time job? When? During school year or summer? Did u work because you wanted to or because you needed to? Listing activities is OK. Citing accomplishments/results gives those activities more meaning.

-Review this semesters' schedule. Are there more challenging courses you can take? Focus on maxing every class.

-Your goal is to earn a commission in the USAF. Your plan is to earn it through attending USAFA. Next option is AFROTC scholarship. Next option is ....? The point is that you are "all in" when it comes to earning your commission and serving. It's important that you bring this out in your MOC interviews. So, apply for AFROTC scholarship now. If you're not really interested in serving if you do not get into USAFA, folks will figure that out and vote accordingly.

Hope this helps.

Semper Fi,
DTrain
 
Boatdad said:
Rolling a die 3 times does not give you a 50% chance of rolling a specific number. The probability of rolling any number stays 1/6 no matter how many times you roll the dice. Please retake probability and statistics.
Click to expand...

Maybe you'll understand if I re-word it. If you ask "What is the chance that I will roll a 3 if I roll a die three times?", the chance is 50%. It is a cumulative probability. Yes, the chance of rolling any given number is 1/6 for a single roll, but if you chain multiple rolls into the same event the chance of getting a certain number increases. I mean, this is like what they teach you in high school algebra, not even a statistics class.

But that was just an example... What I said about applying to multiple academies is still true. In fact, though still accurate, my probability example was probably not the best for the scenario of service academies. Again, if you apply to more than one, your chances of getting at least one appointment/nomination increase. That's a fact.
 
DTrain1986 said:
brovol - I've got news for you: there are tens of thousands of 17-18-19 year old "kids" who make the service and in many cases the job decision when they enlist. Why is it so hard for our best and brightest who aspire to attend a SA?

I can see it now: young enlisted from you name the service to new lt/ensign..."ma'am, why did you go to XX Academy?" New officer to subordinate, "we'll I didn't know where I wanted to go or what service I wanted to be part of...so I applied to all three...and went to the one who took me."

I say take the time to figure it out and then go forward with one and only one SA.

If Plan A (SA) doesn't work, Plan B (ROTC, OCC, PLC, enlistment) should be ready.

We're training leaders to make decisions. This a good first decision.

My daughter was being interviewed by a MOC panel and was asked if she was applying to any SA other than USAFA. She said no; that's where she wanted to go and she has no interest in the others. Board response: Good answer!

Semper Fi,
DTrain
Click to expand...
Seems a bit narrow minded, and one size fits all.

If one is only willing to serve "if" in a certain branch, and "if" doing a certain job, then I supose you are right. Many, however, are willing to serve in any of the branches, and offer themselves even if not in their current preferred line of work. Moreover, some have the insight and understanding that at age 17 they do not necessarily know what they will prefer several years from now. It sounds like you disparage those who feel that way. I, on the other hand, commend them.

My son is attending West Point to learn to lead and make decisions. If at age 17 your child already had this ability and knowledge, perhaps she didn't need to attend an academy at all.

Thank you for your thoughtful lesson, but suffice it to say that I couldn't disagree with your comments more. I believe, "to each his/her own".

God bless.
 
Sneak said:
That actually IS how probability works: [probability of event 1] + [probability of event 2] + ... = probability that at least one event occurs.

If you roll a dice three times in a row, there is a 1/2 (50%) chance that you will roll any given number. 1/6 + 1/6 + 1/6 = 3/6

Though it is impossible to know exactly what one's chances of admission to an academy are, you do have a certain percentage chance of admission. Not a single person in the world knows it, but it exists. It depends on many perceptibly random or actually random events and things that are out of your control and fluctuate from year to year (e.g. competition in your area). But as a simple property of probability, you do have a certain chance at getting an appointment if you apply.

And that is the biggest stipulation - IF you apply. If you don't apply to a certain academy, you have 0 chance of getting in no matter what. If you apply to all three, congrats, you are being evaluated by all three. Your chances of being chosen by at least one of those admissions boards just increased.
Click to expand...

Just for the record - the chance of flipping a coin and getting a head or a tail or getting a number rolling dice has no relationship to the the previous result. The results of the first roll of the dice has no bearing on the second roll nor the the third. So adding up the chances to get your total chances of success has been proven by the size of the the Casinos in Las Vegas to be an incorrect assumption.

If you flip a coin and it came up heads 47 times in a row, the chances of getting it to be a head is on the 48th attempt is still 50/50 (assuming you are using a standard coin)
 
No worries brovol.

You missed my point. But that's OK. I was off base responding to you when it had nothing to do with the op's request. The op rightly counseled we "bloviators" that we were not being helpful and to get back on track.

That was a good lesson for me.

If you want to continue the discussion off-line we can.

Semper Fi,
DTrain
 
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