Any CPR receive TWE?

Remember that NAPS and foundation have not gotten their appointments yet either.
If that’s the case, based on the calculations a few are making that would virtually leave no appointments left for the rest of us/ our DDs and DSs as there are about 240 at NAPs and what? 80 or so foundation scholars?
 
Remember that NAPS and foundation have not gotten their appointments yet either.
If that’s the case, based on the calculations a few are making that would virtually leave no appointments left for the rest of us/ our DDs and DSs as there are about 240 at NAPs and what? 80 or so foundation scholars?

not really, because in years past the 25 march/april appointments were not to NAPS so there were people getting USNA spots in march and april directly from HS.
 
Remember that NAPS and foundation have not gotten their appointments yet either.
If that’s the case, based on the calculations a few are making that would virtually leave no appointments left for the rest of us/ our DDs and DSs as there are about 240 at NAPs and what? 80 or so foundation scholars?
I wouldn't pay attention to a bunch of speculation from people on the internet... until you get a TWE you still have a chance. Appointments are still being made.
 
Remember that NAPS and foundation have not gotten their appointments yet either.
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"... NAPS and foundation have not gotten their appointments …"
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@NavyHoops …. I would say a Lot of NAPS and Foundation have gone out. DD got NAPS appt on February 8th, and I have seen other candidates reveling in their NAPS appts here and in the Prep school threads.
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If the 10% rule applies to the percentage of those candidates reporting on this site, I would venture to say that at least 50% or more has gone out to NAPS/Foundation.
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That's not a bad guess. If you guess that only 10% of the offers of appointment are reported here, and the appointment thread has only two (2) offers reported this month (when there were 19 for the month of March last year), that could mean (in pure guessing terms) that there are 17 x 10 or 170 more offers to go, this month.

If you extend the wild guessing to the total number reported in the appointment thread right now (103), that could mean that 1,030 offers have gone out already. This leaves about 345 more offers, still to be determined.

You know, if we're guessing.
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I think 345 remaining is a very good number ….
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Well. Last Friday when my Crystal Orb spoke to me after morning Coffee … it revealed to me that 61% of offers went out. Using my own intuition, I would say we are past the peak of a Poisson Distribution, and 23% remaining under the Curve sounds about right.
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I like that.. Poisson Distribution.

I'm not sure if SA admission notifications meet a couple of the assumptions required of a Poisson Distribution:
1) The occurrence of an event will not predict the probability that a subsequent event will occur. All events are independent of each other. This assumption may be true, but could it not be true of we say 1 appointment offer is 1 less appointment to go out for another applicant?
2) The rate of occurrence of an event is constant. My best guess (I'm a novice to SA admissions process) is it's not constant in that some weeks are more. Some weeks none. NAPS and foundation acceptances are due, so a bolus of appointment offers will go out - presumably.

My favorite use of the Poisson distribution was the study done by a famous mathematician who was directed to look into the number of Soldiers killed each year from a horse kick in the Prussian Cavalry. The commander of the Prussian Cavalry Corps that had the most horse kick deaths probably got fired because the data was compared between each Prussian Cavalry Corps. :D
 
Remember that NAPS and foundation have not gotten their appointments yet either.
.
"... NAPS and foundation have not gotten their appointments …"
.
@NavyHoops …. I would say a Lot of NAPS and Foundation have gone out. DD got NAPS appt on February 8th, and I have seen other candidates reveling in their NAPS appts here and in the Prep school threads.
.
If the 10% rule applies to the percentage of those candidates reporting on this site, I would venture to say that at least 50% or more has gone out to NAPS/Foundation.
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I think Navy Hoops is referring to current NAPS / Foundation attendees who haven't received their 2023 appointments yet.
 
I can say based on my experience so far that at this point I am tired of speculation. I am CPR with a nomination, and at this point I really just want to hear something. Anything! Even if it is a denial. I do plan on trying again if I get denied, but I just want to hear something so I can start to really put my future into a better focus.
 
That's not a bad guess. If you guess that only 10% of the offers of appointment are reported here, and the appointment thread has only two (2) offers reported this month (when there were 19 for the month of March last year), that could mean (in pure guessing terms) that there are 17 x 10 or 170 more offers to go, this month.

If you extend the wild guessing to the total number reported in the appointment thread right now (103), that could mean that 1,030 offers have gone out already. This leaves about 345 more offers, still to be determined.

You know, if we're guessing.
.
I think 345 remaining is a very good number ….
.
Well. Last Friday when my Crystal Orb spoke to me after morning Coffee … it revealed to me that 61% of offers went out. Using my own intuition, I would say we are past the peak of a Poisson Distribution, and 23% remaining under the Curve sounds about right.
.


I like that.. Poisson Distribution.

I'm not sure if SA admission notifications meet a couple of the assumptions required of a Poisson Distribution:
1) The occurrence of an event will not predict the probability that a subsequent event will occur. All events are independent of each other. This assumption may be true, but could it not be true of we say 1 appointment offer is 1 less appointment to go out for another applicant?
2) The rate of occurrence of an event is constant. My best guess (I'm a novice to SA admissions process) is it's not constant in that some weeks are more. Some weeks none. NAPS and foundation acceptances are due, so a bolus of appointment offers will go out - presumably.

My favorite use of the Poisson distribution was the study done by a famous mathematician who was directed to look into the number of Soldiers killed each year from a horse kick in the Prussian Cavalry. The commander of the Prussian Cavalry Corps that had the most horse kick deaths probably got fired because the data was compared between each Prussian Cavalry Corps. :D
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Well. On #1, we first need to define what the "Attributes" are that make up an Event. Also, if we can model it such that the Admissions Work Flow performed is somehow independent of the Set of Candidate Events (and their associated attributes), then maybe we can come up with a True Poisson model of the appointments over time …. I think I need to do some more research.
:)
 
I can say based on my experience so far that at this point I am tired of speculation. I am CPR with a nomination, and at this point I really just want to hear something. Anything! Even if it is a denial. I do plan on trying again if I get denied, but I just want to hear something so I can start to really put my future into a better focus.

All the speculation /projection on the Forum is self induced. USNA says that most will know by April 15.
 
If it provides any clarity, my DoDMERB medical was "reviewed" on March 13 during my last year cycle which is when I am imagining the admissions board looked at my file. Again, this is an educated guess. It is March everyone, I didn't receive an answer until April 13 last year so be prepared to wait even longer. For us re-applicants, this wait is way worse since we have been working for this for 2 years+. If you are in HS please please please stop worrying and enjoy your senior year. I stressed WAY too much my senior year and I wish I didn't, the cards will fall where they may. Worse comes the worse you reapply and do the best you can for next year's cycle. Again, it's still a whole 40 days until April 15th, anything can happen so chillax until the meantime (I understand it's easier to say then do trust me I'm extremely anxious myself :rolleyes:).
 
If it provides any clarity, my DoDMERB medical was "reviewed" on March 13 during my last year cycle which is when I am imagining the admissions board looked at my file. Again, this is an educated guess. It is March everyone, I didn't receive an answer until April 13 last year so be prepared to wait even longer. For us re-applicants, this wait is way worse since we have been working for this for 2 years+. If you are in HS please please please stop worrying and enjoy your senior year. I stressed WAY too much my senior year and I wish I didn't, the cards will fall where they may. Worse comes the worse you reapply and do the best you can for next year's cycle. Again, it's still a whole 40 days until April 15th, anything can happen so chillax until the meantime (I understand it's easier to say then do trust me I'm extremely anxious myself :rolleyes:).
Tom,
Something tells me you are going to make it this time. Best of luck!
 
If it provides any clarity, my DoDMERB medical was "reviewed" on March 13 during my last year cycle which is when I am imagining the admissions board looked at my file. Again, this is an educated guess. It is March everyone, I didn't receive an answer until April 13 last year so be prepared to wait even longer. For us re-applicants, this wait is way worse since we have been working for this for 2 years+. If you are in HS please please please stop worrying and enjoy your senior year. I stressed WAY too much my senior year and I wish I didn't, the cards will fall where they may. Worse comes the worse you reapply and do the best you can for next year's cycle. Again, it's still a whole 40 days until April 15th, anything can happen so chillax until the meantime (I understand it's easier to say then do trust me I'm extremely anxious myself :rolleyes:).
Tom,
Something tells me you are going to make it this time. Best of luck!
Thank you! Say a prayer for me, if not you'll see me next year as well.;)
 
If it provides any clarity, my DoDMERB medical was "reviewed" on March 13 during my last year cycle which is when I am imagining the admissions board looked at my file. Again, this is an educated guess. It is March everyone, I didn't receive an answer until April 13 last year so be prepared to wait even longer. For us re-applicants, this wait is way worse since we have been working for this for 2 years+. If you are in HS please please please stop worrying and enjoy your senior year. I stressed WAY too much my senior year and I wish I didn't, the cards will fall where they may. Worse comes the worse you reapply and do the best you can for next year's cycle. Again, it's still a whole 40 days until April 15th, anything can happen so chillax until the meantime (I understand it's easier to say then do trust me I'm extremely anxious myself :rolleyes:).
Tom,
Something tells me you are going to make it this time. Best of luck!
Thank you! Say a prayer for me, if not you'll see me next year as well.;)
I got you Tom. My conversion rate with the big man is pretty strong
 
Last year the person that was appointed from my district was notified the last week of March
 
Personally I’m going to be a little annoyed if all i continue to see are unfamiliar names on the appointment thread lol. I’m pulling for all you regulars !!!!

Hopefully some regulars will be able to post soon, no one has reported from my state yet, IN, so there's still alot of hope for me.
Good luck. I check the forum regularly. My DS is way more patient than I am. I have an analogy for this whole process for my behavior. It's like letting the fizz out of a 2 liter soda bottle. It's shaken and I just have the crack the bottle cap to let off some of the fizz (I call this cracking the crazy). So glad and happy that my son is cool about it all. He just tells me, it will work out and be the way it should. Who's the parent?
 
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