My oldest son, DS #1, applied to USAFA SS way back in the day. We are geographically ‘close’ to USAFA. He didn’t get in, took it as he wasn’t wanted. Or competitive. Or whatever but didn’t even apply to any academy BC of (at least in part) it. This was before we discovered the forums. So I get what you are feeling. A rejection is a rejection no matter what!
BUT....what does one do with a “rejection”? Or a failure. Or a misstep? IMO, THATS what’s important to realize. THATS what shows how bad you want it. And how bad you want it is ultimately what drives obtaining an appointment. My oldest didn’t want it bad enough. It wasn’t his journey. Im also a person of faith. And believe everything happens for a reason. Perhaps NOT getting in SS ultimately helps obtain the ultimate goal of an appointment??
People here are BGO’s, and are told it doesn’t have an impact directly on admissions. From their USNA (I’m USNA but they are similar programs) training. The rejection letter my now junior (DS #3) recently received from USAFA SS SAYS it’s NOT an indication of competitiveness. To still apply. So the thing we DO know is that those in the know say it doesn’t have an impact.
The other part, theorizing or contemplating why some do and some don’t is honestly useless. That will NEVER be figured out. For some of the very reasons you stated. And actually, statistic wise, those that DONT attend have a better chance of an appointment as most of a class did not attend a SS.
DS #2 was rejected USAFA SS. Accepted USNA SS. He never obtained a nom to USAFA and was TWE. He is currently a Plebe at USNA. Only 1 of his USNA SS mates is there with him. Knowing what he knows now about what it takes to be a Mid, looking back, many of those SS attendees didn’t have ‘what it takes’ in his opinion. Additionally he has had a CVW drag that didn’t meet ANY of the 3q’s (not even gpa!). So DS has NO idea why he was on a CVW. Further evidence it all doesn’t make sense. It never will.
I understand your thoughts. They follow logic. But this whole process isn’t logical. So don’t put any additional consideration as to your child’s competitiveness for an appointment from not getting into a SS or CVW. I would counsel them to strengthen their resolve for the ultimate goal: an appointment. If they really want it !