@Memphis9489 Let me suggest a third possibility based on MidCakePa's comment:
If the SA wants someone bad enough — typically indicated by an LOA — they will find a way to offer an appointment. That includes candidates who do not have a nomination.
I suspect some MOCs believe this and therefore don't give a nomination to LOA holders figuring the Academy will find one elsewhere for them... then he's "guaranteed" 2 at the Academy. Unfortunately there are folks each year who get an LOA, no nomination, and no appointment. There are also folks like MidCakePa's DD each year for whom they do find a nomination. One can never assume which camp they fall in, but one should always have hope unless and until a TWE arrives.
I'm not sure this is a likely third scenario.
It's to the congressman's political advantage to have as many of his nominees appointed as possible. Nominating a candidate who is guaranteed an appointment is a no-brainer. Even though there are 10 nominations for each vacancy, that is not to say the academy will not take
several from the slate. In fact, that often happens.
The best thing a congressman can do is to nominate 1) any candidate with an LOA
and 2) pick the best candidates who are likely to earn an appointment. It's the
appointments that reflect favorably on the congressman - not the nominations.
That's what is going to get the most press.
That's the best chance for one of his/her nominees going on and doing something truly memorable that could possibly reflect favorably on the congressman who gave that individual their start in the military.
Nominations go out and are quickly forgotten. Nobody at the Naval Academy even talks about nominations. They all got one!
Not to rain on anybody's parade, but it has to be remembered that; although a nomination is critical, relatively few of those nominated will ever receive an appointment. The mere fact that 10 are nominated for every
one vacancy should tell you that. In fact, almost half of those nominated are not even qualified for an appointment. The congressman wouldn't know that the candidate has a disqualifying medical condition. The congressman wouldn't know that it takes the candidate 15 minutes to run a mile and can't do a single pull-up. The congressman doesn't know that the candidate has a DUI on his record. The congressman may not realize the significance of the candidate never having taken Chemistry or Physics in high school despite the candidate's high ACT score and GPA.
Somebody may want to correct my numbers but I believe they are fairly accurate.
There are usually over 4000 nominations.
Nominally, over 2000 of those nominees are fully qualified for an appointment.
There are generally around 1300-1500 offers of appointments. (depending on the target class size and
that varies with graduation rates)
There are generally around 1100-1300 in a new class.
What is hidden in these numbers are that there are over 200 NAPS appointments, about 75 Foundation appointments, and then there's all the Blue Chip athletes who are going to get an appointment even if they had a 23 on their ACT and still need to take Pre-Calc.
So, it makes you wonder how many of those 1200 spots are realistically available to a candidate directly out of high school. I'd estimate about 800-900. How's that for a depressing breakdown?
