Where would Chinese “Pearl Harbor” come?

This is one that keeps me up at night worrying about DD, DS, and especially nephews and nieces in the Navy. If you haven’t been to China, it’s a VERY militaristic and nationalist country. Every other commercial on TV is about their military. Billboards all over espousing their military.
I’ve worked with CHICOMS. Individually, great people. But get them together and group think takes over.
People talk about racism in the US... nothing compared to what I saw in China.
I peruse other websites and see obvious Chinese attempts to influence thought and news.
I do hope this eventually burns out as the Cold War did. My life expectancy in the Fulda Gap was probably measured in days.

UHBlackhawk said:

This is one that keeps me up at night worrying about DD, DS, and especially nephews and nieces in the Navy. If you haven’t been to China, it’s a VERY militaristic and nationalist country. Every other commercial on TV is about their military. Billboards all over espousing their military.
I’ve worked with CHICOMS. Individually, great people. But get them together and group think takes over.
People talk about racism in the US... nothing compared to what I saw in China.
I peruse other websites and see obvious Chinese attempts to influence thought and news.
I do hope this eventually burns out as the Cold War did. My life expectancy in the Fulda Gap was probably measured in days.

China Has Lost the Philippines Despite Duterte’s Best Efforts

Beijing’s growing aggressiveness is forcing Manila back into Washington’s camp.

foreignpolicy.com

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I presume, it's gonna burn out eventually. If that is with/without conflict, we of course don't know ( I hope not!)..

From within.

I'd guess it would be on some cyber front, not unlike the the Russian SolarWinds attack, rather than a physical target. If they were actually trying to harm us it could be power grid, transportation, hospitals or some other infrastructure, but more likely they'd conduct wide-spread hacking (like the Russians did) so that they could embarrass us and look clever. They could also go beyond simple corporate espionage to conducting real attacks on the world financial markets (wrecking Bitcoin for example) but at this point they are so entrenched there that they have as much to lose as anyone.

Cyber or Space. I think the nuclear threat is sufficient to prevent serious armed confrontation between the big super powers. It has long concerned me that so much manufacturing is done in China. Those factories load software onto all of our devices and we trust it is the original software provided by the hardware company whose name is on the product. However, hardware manufacturing is often more complex between contract manufacturing agreements, original design manufacturers, and original equipment manufacturers... it really starts to blur as to who really controls the underlying software in these device. The conspiracy theorist in me recognizes there is likely code in some of our products waiting to be awoken and the potential for great harm is real. As with all zero day exploits, they are great until they need to be exercised, but once they are exposed, their value greatly diminishes as teams begin to explore how to mitigate the exploit. The uncertainty of what is lurking beneath that keeps many cyber professionals up at night.

On the space front, space based weapons are already being tested. Heck, we have a small shuttle that stays on orbit for essentially a year at a time and its mission is not public. The potential for destroying communications satellites is a real threat and likely possible today. Considering the build time for a replacement satellite and the lead times for planning space missions, repairing or replacing these critical infrastructure pieces could prove quite painful to services and people who rely on them.

...and that X-37B is cool.

UHBlackhawk said:

... If you haven’t been to China, it’s a VERY militaristic and nationalist country. Every other commercial on TV is about their military. Billboards all over espousing their military.
...

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Similar to NK, my guess is that is more likely aimed toward reminding their own citizens what would happen if they dare question the party.

Doesn’t answer OP’s question, but a telling anecdote about what China is all about: Two years ago, I visited China and Taiwan for business. Took DS along with me, as he’d never been to Asia.

One Saturday morning, we took a cycling tour of Shanghai. At one point, we stopped at a splendid city park. There we saw numerous clusters of men — only men, middle aged mostly — conversing animatedly with each other. Our guide said, “This is a popular place to gather and debate. They can talk about anything they want. Except politics.”

Well, OK then. DS wrote about this episode in his SA and ROTC essays, to point out that he understands better than most other candidates, what it means to not have freedom.

Meanwhile, in Taiwan, what an amazing, bustling, energetic center of democracy and capitalism. The antithesis of China. But I couldn’t help but think that it could all vanish if China decided to, once and for all, reclaim its “wayward province.” Did someone mention Hong Kong?

They'll be no "Pearl Harbor" against powers like the US or its allies, Japan, South Korea, Singapore or the Philippines. The Chinese aren't stupid.

But Vietnam? Maybe. Perhaps just border skirmishes a la 1978 but with China better armed and Vietnam not as combat experienced.

There also considerable ethnic Chinese minorities in Malaysia and Indonesia. Majority Moslem nations not always on the same page as the US in the Global War on Terror since 2001. Also these are nations where periodic repression vs. ethnic Chinese has been brutal. Should that happen again might the PLA intervene directly? Maybe. Russia has reserved the right to protect ethnic Russian populations in the "near abroad" in recent years. Why would China behave any differently? The US invaded Panama as recently a 1989 to protect American citizens in the Canal Zone.

India? Recent skirmishes in the Himalayas have been bloody. But each country is too powerful to risk an open war. Other than jingoist pride, who care about a bunch or rocks above the tree line. Stiil, whenever nations armed with nuclear weapons have soldiers killing one another it is deeply troubling.

The Chinese government has been the only ally of the Burmese military in recent decades. If they risk being overthrown might the Chinese rescue them? Maybe. If a civil war erupts there would neighbors like India and Vietnam support the forces opposed to the Burmese army (causing problems for China)? Maybe.

Mongolia? If that country tries to separate itself from Chinese influence, or perhaps return to their traditional orbit towards Russia, China could change that with a single airborne division and air support.

North Korea? If communist party rule is ever threatened from within in a serious way China would intervene to protect the status quo. China has no love affair with the Kim family but wants to maintain that nation as a buffer state against perceived US-South Korea-Japan threats.

Laos and Cambodia? Considered to be within Vietnam's sphere of influence. But China would love a cheap win by having friendly regimes in power in both of those nations. Enough to initiate a war? Probably not. Not enough returns for the investment.

Taiwan. The big enchilada for China. Non traditional warfare is more likely than an amphibious invasion, which would be extraordinarily difficult to pull off. Even without US intervention. China has money. Could the buy off enough domestic support within Taiwan to insure influence? Increase trade to become a decider in domestic Taiwanese affairs? The British and Americans built empires based on monetary influence.

Outside of East Asia the Chinese have no chance to display military power. They are, indeed, a regional power (not a superpower) in military terms. But they are a growing global economic power which might be just as important.

They had a thing about Chip manufacture on 60 minutes. Basically, Taiwan makes the majority of the chips for the rest of the world. China has tried to duplicate its technology and hasn't been able to. Taking over Taiwan and taking over the technology would put China in control of the world's technology. I don't know about Pearl Harbor but besides wanting to bring Taiwan into the fold, there is a strategic reason to take over the Island. I recently wrote the I doubt the US would actually fight to defend Taiwan. After watching 60 minutes, the US would definitely defend Taiwan.

"Pearl Harbor", well the current Pandemic already sounds like a fit for a Pearl Harbor like scenario. Hundreds of thousands dead, economy crippled, people in panic, State of emergencies, all without having to fire one shot. If COVID 19 really did leak from a lab in Wuhan which more evidence shows it is, then the CCP may have unintentionally already started the "Pearl Harbor". That being said, a Biological attack on a country is an ideal way to completely cripple a country without having to fire a shot militarily. It is hard to beat an enemy you can't see.

Anguswarrior112 said:

"Pearl Harbor", well the current Pandemic already sounds like a fit for a Pearl Harbor like scenario. Hundreds of thousands dead, economy crippled, people in panic, State of emergencies, all without having to fire one shot. If COVID 19 really did leak from a lab in Wuhan which more evidence shows it is, then the CCP may have unintentionally already started the "Pearl Harbor". That being said, a Biological attack on a country is an ideal way to completely cripple a country without having to fire a shot militarily. It is hard to beat an enemy you can't see.

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my only issue with accusing China of purposely leaking Covid is that their whole economy is based on making and selling stuff to the rest of the world. If everyone else economy is in the toilet, no one is going to buy stuff from them and that is what happened. Things have been different for the last 4-6 months and people are buying stuff again so China business is doing well but it did hurt them initially. Even now, production has slowed. My son bough a bed frame when he moved in January. He didn't receive it until April

Anguswarrior112 said:

Hundreds of thousands dead, economy crippled, people in panic, State of emergencies, all without having to fire one shot.

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And all overblown. Casualty numbers that were inflated and in some cases flat out lied about, an economy that was purposely shut down by politicians with an axe to grind, and people in panic because the media and government told them to panic.

Taiwan

The best way to compete with China is non-military. We need a unified trade block including the G7 plus invitees to include India, Australia, Indonesia, Phillipines, South Korea and Viet Nam to play economic hardball with China. The Chinese economy is, or soon will be, too large for the US to compete economically head to head alone against China.

A revival of the military alliance of SEATO would not be a bad idea either. But leadership is required to oppose China in both the economic and military spheres. The USA must provide that leadership.

An EMP somewhere in the Midwest would take out the Midwest, most of the South, and the East Coast, followed or preceded by the Chinese attacking the West Coast and Russia attacking the East Coast. Both the Russians and Chinese ships have been attempting to provoke "something " with U.S.Navy ships for the last 4 months. They know how incredibly weak the current political leadership in the U.S. is.

Colonial Pipeline and 2020 Election

Sandydesert said:

Both the Russians and Chinese ships have been attempting to provoke "something " with U.S.Navy ships for the last 4 months. They know how incredibly weak the current political leadership in the U.S. is.

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Four months? Or Four years? or Ten years?

NJROTC-CC said:

Taiwan

The best way to compete with China is non-military. We need a unified trade block including the G7 plus invitees to include India, Australia, Indonesia, Phillipines, South Korea and Viet Nam to play economic hardball with China. The Chinese economy is, or soon will be, too large for the US to compete economically head to head alone against China.

A revival of the military alliance of SEATO would not be a bad idea either. But leadership is required to oppose China in both the economic and military spheres. The USA must provide that leadership.

Click to expand...

We could have had that with the TPP but certain US politicians view ANY cooperation with pro-free trade, pro-democracy allies as being, well, un-American.

The isolationist, now-nothing, shut out the rest of the world sentiment has taken over one of America's two major political parties like wildfire. And it ain't going away anytime soon. Even trade with Canada, with whom the US enjoys a surplus, was deemed a threat to national security by the previous administration.

America's allies (and enemies) know that the post-War on Terror USA has zero appetite for international alliances, is uninterested in defending allies or even treating allies like, well, allies. The current administration not withstanding (and it's fantasy of turning the clock to America's pre-2003 standing in the world), the rest of the world is certain that the post-Cold War Era is dead and buried and the American Century is now part of history, never to be duplicated or even restored.

America will remain rich and have a high standard of living for some time now, but so does Belgium, Italy and New Zealand, all of whom have pretty much zero influence on anything. America will be just a big Belgium, only with a large military it will never use again.

The rise of China can only be stopped by China making self-inflicted mistakes, which is certainly possible - just look at their history. But America has abandoned its once unassailable position as leader of the free world. For better or worse (I believe worse.)

Comparison: France in 1940 had the largest and most powerful in Europe, maybe the world. It was a first class industrial power and had a massive empire, 2nd only to the Brits. Yet the Germans overran France in 30 days. Why? German military prowess, for certain. But France's political factions hated each other more than the invading Germans. Nobody wanted to fight and die for "those people", meaning their fellow Frenchmen. Some preferred the Germany of Adolf Hitler, not unlike a lot of Americans preferring the Russia of Vladimir Putin today. France (a wealthy country, a comfortable place to live) has been trying for 80 years to restore its pre-1940 greatness, laughably.

The US in the year 2021 is probably even worse off than France in 1940. We are just lucky not to share a border with a hostile power like France did. Unless you count Canada.*





* Reference: https://thehill.com/opinion/nationa...national-security-threat-to-the-united-states

UHBlackhawk said:

This is one that keeps me up at night worrying about DD, DS, and especially nephews and nieces in the Navy. If you haven’t been to China, it’s a VERY militaristic and nationalist country. Every other commercial on TV is about their military. Billboards all over espousing their military.
I’ve worked with CHICOMS. Individually, great people. But get them together and group think takes over.
People talk about racism in the US... nothing compared to what I saw in China.
I peruse other websites and see obvious Chinese attempts to influence thought and news.
I do hope this eventually burns out as the Cold War did. My life expectancy in the Fulda Gap was probably measured in days.

China Has Lost the Philippines Despite Duterte’s Best Efforts

Beijing’s growing aggressiveness is forcing Manila back into Washington’s camp.

foreignpolicy.com

Click to expand...

The racism in east Asia is present across China, but limited to there. Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, Vietnam, etc. all have insular societies, not at all welcoming of "foreigners". Ask any African-American serviceman about their experiences on duty in east Asia.

The death of the Soviet Union was due to the collapse of communism, not of Mother Russia. China today is less a communist nation seeking to export Marxist-Leninism than it is a Sopranos family type regime energized by profits and nationalism (a much better motivating idea than communism ever was.)