3Q, NWL, but two others in my district have two accepted offers. Am I out?

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Buffstone126

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Feb 20, 2020
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I just found out that there are two accepted offers from my district. I assume that means I am unlikely to get an offer, correct?
 
You may not be charged to your District's MOC but that doesn't mean anything. Academies can always "find" you a nomination and if you're on NWL, you statistically have a little over 50% chance of getting into West Point. It could theoretically have been those two who were charged to your state senator or possibly VP. So hang in there!
 
Buffstone126 said:
I just found out that there are two accepted offers from my district. I assume that means I am unlikely to get an offer, correct?
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Elected officials like to take credit for everyone offered an appointment from their constituency, whether they were on their slate or not, or whether those appointments were actually charged to them to fill their slot(s).

Dive into the link below to understand the various nom sources and how many appointments can be charged to each source.

Yes, there are discretionary noms the SAs control, and they can “find” a nom, but they do this for fully qualified applicants they really want. There are simply not enough seats for all the fully qualified applicants.
 
Capt MJ said:
Elected officials like to take credit for everyone offered an appointment from their constituency, whether they were on their slate or not, or whether those appointments were actually charged to them to fill their slot(s).

Dive into the link below to understand the various nom sources and how many appointments can be charged to each source.

Yes, there are discretionary noms the SAs control, and they can “find” a nom, but they do this for fully qualified applicants they really want. There are simply not enough seats for all the fully qualified applicants.
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Thanks! You are one of my favorite sources here. I have a nomination, but it looks like two others have already accepted offers. Does that change my picture? I guess I am trying to figure out whether my being on the NWL becomes a bigger pool of applicants or if it still matters how many have come from my district.
I have also applied to USAFA and for an ROTC scholarship, and have been accepted to three schools I love close to home, so I have back-ups that I am happy with. Just trying to get a picture of my chances because USMA is my first choice.
 
You just don't know until you know. In 2018, there were 6 students that accepted appointments to USMA from just our high school, in a very competitive district. I only know of 1 that was a recruited athelete. Hang in there!
 
Buffstone126 said:
I just found out that there are two accepted offers from my district. I assume that means I am unlikely to get an offer, correct?
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It's all up to speculation. Keep hanging in there! Remember, if USMA wants you, they will take you.
 
Buffstone126 said:
Thanks! You are one of my favorite sources here. I have a nomination, but it looks like two others have already accepted offers. Does that change my picture? I guess I am trying to figure out whether my being on the NWL becomes a bigger pool of applicants or if it still matters how many have come from my district.
I have also applied to USAFA and for an ROTC scholarship, and have been accepted to three schools I love close to home, so I have back-ups that I am happy with. Just trying to get a picture of my chances because USMA is my first choice.
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As we say in the Navy, keep your eyes in the boat, your boat. You have no idea where those appointees have their appointments charged. You know from reading these threads that there is no way to accurately predict your particular chances, since we don’t know your WCS, and how it compares to others. You have worked hard to develop excellent alternatives. Now, focus on what you can control, see what happens, make decisions when it’s time to do that.

Hold that little brain hamster down that’s coming up with all the what ifs.
 
foxtailsean said:
You may not be charged to your District's MOC but that doesn't mean anything. Academies can always "find" you a nomination and if you're on NWL, you statistically have a little over 50% chance of getting into West Point. It could theoretically have been those two who were charged to your state senator or possibly VP. So hang in there!
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Where did you get the "little over 50%" on the NWL get in statistic?
 
foxtailsean said:
USMA official website has all those stats. Somewhere around 2500 made it to the NWL and about 1300 got their appointments.
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Rough numbers - 1200 get appointments. 2400 make NWL.

Take away the other nominating sources from the 1200. 150 come off the waitlist. So like 7%.

Just throwing numbers out. Not trying to be exact.
 
foxtailsean said:
USMA official website has all those stats. Somewhere around 2500 made it to the NWL and about 1300 got their appointments.
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1200 appointments don't come off the NWL.

A1Janitor said:
Rough numbers - 1200 get appointments. 2400 make NWL.

Take away the other nominating sources from the 1200. 150 come off the waitlist. So like 7%.

Just throwing numbers out. Not trying to be exact.
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Yep. This is why I asked where the "50% of the NWL" number came from.
 
TheRightStuff said:
1200 appointments don't come off the NWL.



Yep. This is why I asked where the "50% of the NWL" number came from.
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Everyone who is 3Q and has a nomination will be on the NWL regardless of when they get an appointment. But some end of getting an appointment before the 3Q letter which informs you that you've been placed on the NWL. So probability wise, you'll have around 50% chance of getting an appointment if you are 3Q with a nomination. Some people think if they have Pnom or simply win their MOC's slate will not be placed on the NWL but they in fact are.
 
USMA Class of 2024 profile
Volume of Applicants Applicant Files Started Men 11,030 Women 4,871 Total 15,901
Nominated Men 3.040 Women 1,091 Total 4,131
Qualified (academically & in physical aptitude) Men 1,587 Women 482 Total 2,065
Admitted Men 948 Women 284 Total 1,232

Note above does not take into account medical qualification. I am just guessing based on my 17 years working for Naval Academy Admissions as a BGO, but likely there are several in the Qualified list (academically and physically) that do not clear the medical each year (maybe even a hundred or so? Others who know better can chime in!) So if you are 3Q'd on National Wait List, you are still in the running for an appointment and stay positive, while working on the back up plan!
 
@foxtailsean, I understand what you are saying, but I think you are overstating what being on the NWL means at this point, i.e. AFTER many (if not most) slates are reconciled (principal, competitive, ranked vs. unranked), other nom sources are sorted out, athlete appointments are figured out, etc. and many offers have been made.

That is the context that OP’s question comes up in now, meaning it is February and two applicants from his/her district were already appointed.

As was pointed out above by @A1Janitor, once all (or most) of that is determined then the remaining top 150 as to WCS are taken off the NWL one applicant at a time. The applicants getting the NWL letter NOW (3Q with a nom) statistically do not have a likely 50% chance at this stage even though they theoretically did at that mythical point in time when all 3Q applicants with a nom were known PRIOR to the 1st appointment being made (that’s where the 50% statistic “makes sense” if hypothetically all 3Q with a nom applicants are on a NWL at some fictional point in time). This is evidenced by the post by @usna90 above and the statistics listed for the Class of 2024.

There is a difference in “your chances” at those two points in time, but I agree it is not over until it is over!
 
TheRightStuff said:
@foxtailsean, I understand what you are saying, but I think you are overstating what being on the NWL means at this point, i.e. AFTER many (if not most) slates are reconciled (principal, competitive, ranked vs. unranked), other nom sources are sorted out, athlete appointments are figured out, etc. and many offers have been made.

That is the context that OP’s question comes up in now, meaning it is February and two applicants from his/her district were already appointed.

As was pointed out above by @A1Janitor, once all (or most) of that is determined then the remaining top 150 as to WCS are taken off the NWL one applicant at a time. The applicants getting the NWL letter NOW (3Q with a nom) statistically do not have a likely 50% chance at this stage even though they theoretically did at that mythical point in time when all 3Q applicants with a nom were known PRIOR to the 1st appointment being made (that’s where the 50% statistic “makes sense” if hypothetically all 3Q with a nom applicants are on a NWL at some fictional point in time). This is evidenced by the post by @usna90 above and the statistics listed for the Class of 2024.

There is a difference in “your chances” at those two points in time, but I agree it is not over until it is over!
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Thank you providing this information! Does the Naval Academy send out a 3Q letter informing candidates they are on a NWL or is this something that only USMA does? If so, when do the 3Q letters typically start going out from the Naval Academy?
 
MIKEBRAVO3 said:
Thank you providing this information! Does the Naval Academy send out a 3Q letter informing candidates they are on a NWL or is this something that only USMA does? If so, when do the 3Q letters typically start going out from the Naval Academy?
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Unfortunately, to my knowledge USNA does not send out 3Q letters at all but only sends out LOAs, acceptances and TWEs.

Someone more knowledgeable than me can speak to whether there is a “NWL” for USNA.
 
TheRightStuff said:
@foxtailsean, I understand what you are saying, but I think you are overstating what being on the NWL means at this point, i.e. AFTER many (if not most) slates are reconciled (principal, competitive, ranked vs. unranked), other nom sources are sorted out, athlete appointments are figured out, etc. and many offers have been made.

That is the context that OP’s question comes up in now, meaning it is February and two applicants from his/her district were already appointed.

As was pointed out above by @A1Janitor, once all (or most) of that is determined then the remaining top 150 as to WCS are taken off the NWL one applicant at a time. The applicants getting the NWL letter NOW (3Q with a nom) statistically do not have a likely 50% chance at this stage even though they theoretically did at that mythical point in time when all 3Q applicants with a nom were known PRIOR to the 1st appointment being made (that’s where the 50% statistic “makes sense” if hypothetically all 3Q with a nom applicants are on a NWL at some fictional point in time). This is evidenced by the post by @usna90 above and the statistics listed for the Class of 2024.

There is a difference in “your chances” at those two points in time, but I agree it is not over until it is over!
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When you get the 3Q letter doesn't matter. What really is important is your WCS. There are some really qualified candidates out there that get their 3Q letter relatively late because their 7th semester transcript may not have been uploaded. According to my RC, your application will not even be reviewed until your 7th semester transcript is uploaded.
 
See attached for more detailed statistics.

For the OP: if the two candidates were appointed as Additional Appointees or appointed from another nominating/appointment source, their appointments have zero effect on your chances. If one of them was determined to be the winner of your slate, that eliminates one of your possibilities and therefore reduces your chances.

However, you have no way of knowing how they were appointed and simply have to wait, as frustrating as it is.
 

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  • USMA_class_characteristics_2018-2022.pdf
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