3q with a nom

H

Hashbrowns and eggs

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Mar 11, 2018
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Hey y'all,

My BGO informed me a while ago that I was triple qualified. Yesterday, my member of Congress informed me that I received a nomination.

What do my odds look like from here?
 
Across USNA, USMA and USAFA, someone who is 3Q and nominated has roughly 50% chance of receiving offer of appointment. Give or take about five points either way, but that’s the statistic for recent years.
 
The comments about increased chances with 3Q and a Nom (3Q/N) are a bit misleading. I think I saw someone post the other day about 3500 candidates that are 3Q and 1100 slots. That doesn't make your chance 1 in 3. Similarly, although stats may show that 50% of the people who are 3Q/N get an appointment, your chances aren't 50%.

The issue is not odds, or chances , but for most candidates how competitive you are within your particular MOC slate. Most MOC use the competitive alternative nomination, which means they nominate up to 10 people (the "slate") for every slot they have available. You can be 3Q/N but still be competing with 10 people that are also 3Q/N.

The bottom line is that 3Q/N means you are still in the game, and as long as you are in the game, you still have a chance.

As an aside, for those Candidates that are wondering if they are 3Q-- don't ask. BGO's are not supposed to tell you, and most won't. You will know if you pass CFA and Medical, but for good reason, the workings of the Admissions Board and Noms/Appointments are not public. I've gone through BGO training several times, and seen countless candidates...and sometimes the Admissions results surprise me. As I have said many times before ...focus on what you can control.
 
@Old Navy BGO, thanks for the clarification about a candidate’s individual “odds.” So a better way to state my point, which would be statistically accurate and less misleading, is this: The national acceptance rate for candidates who are 3Q and nominated is roughly 50%.
 
Hashbrownandeggs you odds are as good as the competition! No one can tell you what you odds are. The answer is it depends on many factors. I know you are excited and you should be. You are in competition with the best if the best. The most anyone can tell you is you are in the running for an Appointment. Congratulations on getting this far and best of luck in the future.
 
MidCakePa said:
@Old Navy BGO, thanks for the clarification about a candidate’s individual “odds.” So a better way to state my point, which would be statistically accurate and less misleading, is this: The national acceptance rate for candidates who are 3Q and nominated is roughly 50%.
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MidCakePa you answer is not correct. What you are saying is if there are ten nominees and all are 3Q/N that only 5 will receive appointments. Sorry that may or may not happen. All ten may received appointment, only 1 may received an appointment. The answer is as Old Navy BGO stated: The issue is not odds, or chances , but for most candidates how competitive you are within your particular MOC slate. Nothing less nothing more.
 
@parent, that is not my point at all. Please re-read carefully. I explicitly clarified my earlier post and was no longer referring to individual odds. The number I refer to — that nationally, about 50% of all candidates who are 3Q and nominated receive offer of appointment — is absolutely true. It is well documented for USNA and USMA, and probable for USAFA also.

So as you say, and as @Old Navy BGO said, it may play out differently at the district level. It could be a single offer in one district, 10 offers in another district. But on the national level, the acceptance rate is about half.

If you’re going to go to the trouble of using bold and italics and underline, make sure you fully comprehend the point you’re attempting to refute. That is all. As you are.
 
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In my journey of applying, I found that statistics aren't really that important to worry over, nor does it make a bid difference knowing your odds. Just be confident in yourself and don't forget to focus on back ups.

Old Navy BGO said:
The comments about increased chances with 3Q and a Nom (3Q/N) are a bit misleading. I think I saw someone post the other day about 3500 candidates that are 3Q and 1100 slots. That doesn't make your chance 1 in 3. Similarly, although stats may show that 50% of the people who are 3Q/N get an appointment, your chances aren't 50%.

The issue is not odds, or chances , but for most candidates how competitive you are within your particular MOC slate. Most MOC use the competitive alternative nomination, which means they nominate up to 10 people (the "slate") for every slot they have available. You can be 3Q/N but still be competing with 10 people that are also 3Q/N.

The bottom line is that 3Q/N means you are still in the game, and as long as you are in the game, you still have a chance.

As an aside, for those Candidates that are wondering if they are 3Q-- don't ask. BGO's are not supposed to tell you, and most won't. You will know if you pass CFA and Medical, but for good reason, the workings of the Admissions Board and Noms/Appointments are not public. I've gone through BGO training several times, and seen countless candidates...and sometimes the Admissions results surprise me. As I have said many times before ...focus on what you can control.
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I'm still trying to wrap my head around this. When a MOC submits a slate, does that mean that in the admissions room the candidate is being compared to the other 9 candidates on the slate specifically? How does that exactly work?
 
Yes, the candidate is being compared to the other 9 people on the slate? How does that exactly work? They compare them. The best one wins.
 
Oh, this whole time I thought they were just looking at each case individually. :\
 
Trying to simplify a complicated process with many minor details. It is really a two step process. Step #1: Admissions evaluates each candidate individually and determines if the are qualified and basically “approves” the WCS. This review can happen anytime in the process and is not aligned to any sort of nomination. Step #2: is called resolving the slates and happens after the deadline for nominations and applications. Admissions will take all of the qualified candidates from each slate and rank them against the others on the same slate. The highest ranked candidate will get an offer of admission. After those steps are complete, then you get into the NWL and Additional appointees. To the original OP’s question and with @Old Navy BGO Point; your odds could be anywhere from 100% where you are the only 3Q candidate on your slate to 10% where all 10 candidates on your slate are 3Q. There is no way to know.
 
This might get a little more complicated, but what if two nominees on one slate have LOAs. Can only one of them “win” the slate? And would that be based off of higher WCS?
 
jn11n said:
This might get a little more complicated, but what if two nominees on one slate have LOAs. Can only one of them “win” the slate? And would that be based off of higher WCS?
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De-couple LOA from slate. IF the LOA says all they need is a nom to get an offer of appointment, and they are both on the slate and have noms of any flavor, they have satisfied the LOA and should get an offer of appointment, regardless of slate method used.
 
MidCakePa said:
@parent, that is not my point at all. Please re-read carefully. I explicitly clarified my earlier post and was no longer referring to individual odds. The number I refer to — that nationally, about 50% of all candidates who are 3Q and nominated receive offer of appointment — is absolutely true. It is well documented for USNA and USMA, and probable for USAFA also.

So as you say, and as @Old Navy BGO said, it may play out differently at the district level. It could be a single offer in one district, 10 offers in another district. But on the national level, the acceptance rate is about half.

If you’re going to go to the trouble of using bold and italics and underline, make sure you fully comprehend the point you’re attempting to refute. That is all. As you are.
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MidCakePA Not sure whose stats you are using. I am using the stats from USNA. upload_2018-12-16_13-21-28.png
I trust with all of your knowledge about USNA you would have this information and know Vice Admiral Walter E. "Ted" Carter, Jr. (The Supe) and Brigadier General Stephen E Liszweski (previous Commandant). I trust you have been their guest on "The Wolverine" as my family and I have. Oh by the way you have probably been a guest at The Supe's house too! My family has!
 
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Okay...I'm going to say it out-loud and clearly. It's fine to have a disagreement, its fine to "debate" and such, but when one person stoops to the low-end to say "oh, yeah? Well, I did XXX and I know YYY" then it becomes churlish and uncalled for in this forum. It'd be like me saying "I'm a moderator...and the Secretary of the AF and I knew each other as cadets; I worked for her...and the AF Chief of Staff, "Fingers", is my classmate, friend, and a great guy!" and then expect that to make my answer as a moderator all the more powerful.

Nope, it doesn't work that way. The fact that what I wrote is true has absolutely NO, NONE, ZERO impact on my role as a moderator here. And it should carry no weight in a discussion in our forums. As I said, polite discourse, and sometimes even spirited debate is welcome! Churlish conduct is not.

How about we walk away from that abyss?

Steve
Mod
 
Great, thank yall so much for the help.

If I do not win my slate, am I doomed? What other appointment sources am I eligible for?
 
If you do not win your slate, you go to the National Pool. The first 150 in that pool get an offer and then admissions can pick and chose the rest to fill the class.

Winning your local MOC is the easiest way for most applicants.
 
USMA 1994 said:
If you do not win your slate, you go to the National Pool. The first 150 in that pool get an offer and then admissions can pick and chose the rest to fill the class.

Winning your local MOC is the easiest way for most applicants.
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So even if youre not in that top 150, you can still be selected by admissions?

Is that more similar to how civilian colleges work?
 
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