The Regional Commander (RC) is the admissions officer responsible for a particular geographic region. The RC is a U.S. Army officer, usually a senior Captain or Major, and much less prone to BS than may be found among civilian college admissions officers. The RC is the most important admissions officer to a candidate.
If the RC says your chances are good, then they are probably good. But good is a subjective term - your definition of good chance might be different from the RC's. It also depends on the time in the admissions cycle. If you are talking about the current cycle, I would consider the RC's comments very positive, since all candidates have been identified. If it's next cycle, I would take it as likely to be competitive with other candidates in your district.
Yes, the RC has influence, but not nearly as much as a civilian college admissions officer, who can tube an applicant or pave the way based on subjective criteria. For most USMA candidates, the WCS score is the most important factor for a qualified candidate, and much of the WCS score is strictly objective. The majority of USMA appointments are awarded on merit, with merit based on WCS score.
The RC calculates the WCS score and does have some discretion when items do not fit neatly into the standardized tabulations. However, the WCS score must be verified by another RC and any deviations must be defensible. So, yes an RC has influence, but can't get an appointment for a candidate with a lower WCS score over one with a higher WCS score.
