Just for some clarifications as a Mom of a DS that was scholarship and a Govt Politics major that went on to become a pilot. If you do the math, statistically they will be the rarity.
~ 1. Only about 16-18% of ALL AFROTC cadets are on scholarship.
~~ The last I read AFROTC has about 5000 cadets, thus @900 are offered scholarships.
~ 2. To get the golden ticket scholarship type 1 is hard. Only 5% of all scholarships are type 1, and only 5% of them go to non-tech majors. Type 2 is 15% and @15% of those go to non-tech. Type 7 is the remaining bulk and 25% of those go to non-tech.
Now what has not been said is what most people call the scholarship, it is really not a true 4 yr scholarship. It is a 2+2. You must get selected in your sophomore year to go to summer training(SFT). If not selected than they have the right to dis-enroll you out of the program. Thus, you will not commission.
~ As others have stated numbers change year to year. The yr my DS was up for SFT the selection rate was 55%. The following year it was 90%, the yr after that it was 50%. It has been hanging around 90% for several years now.
~~ That board is called "masked" for the scholarship. In other words they do not know whether the cadet is on scholarship or not. It plays no factor into the selection.
~~~ However, they will break it down into 4 groups that will play into the equation. Rated/tech, rated/non-tech, non-rated/tech, non-rated/non-tech. The years that it dropped into the 50% if you put on your paperwork non-rated/non-tech your chance of selection was less than 20%.
I very rarely disagree with Mike, but I will on the remark about not getting commissioned unless he was referring to that 2 yr marker. If he meant after returning from SFT than unless you don't keep your nose clean (no DUIs, no academic issues, etc) than yes you will commission.
One thing to understand is that ROTC will never have the commission rate that USAFA will. The percentages are almost opposite. USAFA usually has about 80% of the class that enters commissioned 4 yrs later. AFROTC has about 25% that will commission. There are many reasons for this occurring in ROTC. The first is there are many that walk on, and after a yr they call it quits. The second is as stated above you have that SFT selection board as a sophomore.
You need to see commissioning sources in a different way. USAFA comes 1st. Big Blue at any given time has a 5 yr manpower plan. If USAFA's number is running higher than expected when the AFROTC yr group comes up for SFT they need to reduce the number selected for SFT. If the numbers are fine than AFROTC will have a higher selection rate. If something goes amiss during their junior/senior years than they have OCS to fill in more or fill in less.
~ About 7 years ago, USAFA's and AFROTC numbers were too high. OCS typically holds 2 boards a year. They cancelled one of them.
~ About 5 years ago, USAFA and AFROTC had enough cadets selected for pilot training that the OCS rated board basically only gave out CSO (nav), no pilot slots.
I definitely do not believe that you can't do AFROTC on scholarship as a non-tech and get a pilot slot since my DS is living proof, but I also believe that the odds are better with USAFA. HOWEVER, there is one more thing to add into the mix. College, be it at the Academy or a traditional school is nothing like you have ever experienced.
~Many of you have attended your entire academic life so far with the same kids. This means starting all over again with strangers. Emotionally that can be much harder than you think. Trust me as a military wife, your roots are planted much deeper than you ever can imagine. This can impact your academics. Your academics start to fall and now the stress becomes even harder emotionally. It becomes a downward spiral.
You need to make sure the school matches you personally too. In essence don't get wrapped up in the idea that this is a free education or it has better chances of becoming a pilot as the reason why you opt USAFA over AFROTC.
Finally, when my DS winged. The number 1 grad out of his class was a prior E that commissioned out of OCS. He got a 22. The number 2 was a ROTC grad that got a 15E. The point being once you get to UPT they don't care where that commission came from, your slates are all wiped clean and it is all about handling the stick.