Afghanistan in the rear view mirror...

[AF6872]

Maybe the SeaBees should have been the first in It would have been over long ago and their 2k per capita share of domestic product would now be 4k.

 

[Devil Doc]

This is an awesome thread.

 

[cb7893]

From Wikipedia:

According to other reports the total mineral riches of Afghanistan may be worth over $3 trillion US dollars.[30][31][32] "The previously unknown deposits — including huge veins of iron, copper, cobalt, gold, and critical industrial metals like lithium — are so big and include so many minerals that are essential to modern industry that Afghanistan could eventually be transformed into one of the most important mining centers in the world".

Enter China

Bottom Bottomline: Afghanistan is Natural Resource rich. China has much experience in resource development in poor countries through their Belt and Road Initiative. Most important, the Chinese government doesn’t care about human rights.

China looks forward to 'friendship' with Taliban but doesn’t recognize their rule — yet

The Chinese Communist Party said it looked forward to continuing its “friendship and cooperation” with Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover of nearly the entire country, although it stopped short of recognizing the militants as the legitimate rulers of the country.

news.yahoo.com

 

[THParent]

There are still 10,000 to 15,000 AMERICANS still in Afghanistan and there is currently no plan to evacuate those who don't happen to be in Kabul.
That would be "standing on the concrete at Bagram air base in Kabul", to be more specific.

Outstanding.

 

[franknd]

Interesting thoughts about Afghanistan and senior military leadership from a current General Officer. Here are some excerpts:

We should blame President Bush, not for the decision to attack into Afghanistan following 9-11, but for his decision to “shift the goalposts” and attempt to reform Afghanistan society. That was a fool’s errand any student of history would have recognized. And yes, we should place blame on President Obama for his decision to double down on failure when he “surged” in Afghanistan, rather than to withdraw.

However, most of the blame belongs to the leadership of the US military, and the Army in particular. The Washington Post’s “Afghanistan Papers” detailed years of US officials failing to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan, “making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable.” That report was two years ago, and the stories within it began more than a decade before that. Afghanistan was, and always will be, “unwinnable”.

* * *

General Milley must resign. Not only is he the Chairman of the Joint Staff, prior to that he was the Chief of Staff of the Army. While all services share the blame, the Army is the land domain proponent. The 20 years of failure in Afghanistan is an Army failure. Scores of other generals also deserve a thorough evaluation; many of them are complicit in the lies to protect a decades-long failed strategy.

Secretary of Defense Austin also must be fired. The recently retired Army general and former CENTCOM commander was, and still is, part of the culture that is impervious to the fact that 20 years of trying it their way did not work.

Just as it did after Vietnam, the military, and especially the Army, must conduct a comprehensive review of why it exists. The purpose of the Army is to visit profound violence on our nation’s enemies; it is not to rebuild failed states. We have decades of experience: counter-insurgencies and nation-building does not work for America. We do not have the stomach for long wars of occupation—and that is a good thing. We are a nation of commerce, not conflict. A constellation of retired stars will tell you that the two can coexist. They are wrong. . . . [Retired Vice Chief of Staff of the Army General Jack] Keane sees raw numbers (and ignores the stark evidence that there was no progress over 20 years) and thinks that America’s Army can sustain that level of commitment. It cannot, and the opportunity cost to the culture of the force is much too great. Ignore him. Ignore Petraeus, McMaster, Stavridis, and the rest of their ilk.

Concurrent with its review of purpose, the Army must reevaluate its size and how it is organized. The active component is much too large. . . .

* * *
And while we are on the topic of “too large,” DoD must be halved. There are too many flag officers, too many agencies, departments, and directorates. . . .

Instapundit » Blog Archive » THOUGHTS ON AFGHANISTAN, from a senior military officer with whom I am acquainted: I ask that you…

THOUGHTS ON AFGHANISTAN, from a senior military officer with whom I am acquainted: I ask that you not use my name. I am a currently serving General Officer and what I have to say is highly critical of our current military leadership. But it must be said. I don’t blame President Biden for the...

pjmedia.com

 

[A1Janitor]

Julian Assange speaking in 2011: "The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war’”

There are videos of rooms filled with new $100 bills that taliban took. What is going on?

Maybe we should release Assange and find out what evidence he has.

 

[hornetguy]

There are still 10,000 to 15,000 AMERICANS still in Afghanistan and there is currently no plan to evacuate those who don't happen to be in Kabul.
That would be "standing on the concrete at Bagram air base in Kabul", to be more specific.

Outstanding.

Small nit here. Bagram AB is ~35 miles north of Kabul and is still empty from US withdrawal a couple months ago. Karzai international airport in Kabul is where we are evacuating people and holding the airport. I'm surprised we haven't tried to also secure Bagram to help with evac since it's away from crowds, basically a fortress, and would be an easier base to do a country-wide evac. But I'm being an armchair general so .

 

[THParent]

Thanks @hornetguy.

I should have known we weren't doing anything real smart there. Evacuate from a civilian airport that is impossible to defend. Check.

 

[CatDog99]

Interesting thoughts about Afghanistan and senior military leadership from a current General Officer. Here are some excerpts:

We should blame President Bush, not for the decision to attack into Afghanistan following 9-11, but for his decision to “shift the goalposts” and attempt to reform Afghanistan society. That was a fool’s errand any student of history would have recognized. And yes, we should place blame on President Obama for his decision to double down on failure when he “surged” in Afghanistan, rather than to withdraw.

However, most of the blame belongs to the leadership of the US military, and the Army in particular. The Washington Post’s “Afghanistan Papers” detailed years of US officials failing to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan, “making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable.” That report was two years ago, and the stories within it began more than a decade before that. Afghanistan was, and always will be, “unwinnable”.

* * *

General Milley must resign. Not only is he the Chairman of the Joint Staff, prior to that he was the Chief of Staff of the Army. While all services share the blame, the Army is the land domain proponent. The 20 years of failure in Afghanistan is an Army failure. Scores of other generals also deserve a thorough evaluation; many of them are complicit in the lies to protect a decades-long failed strategy.

Secretary of Defense Austin also must be fired. The recently retired Army general and former CENTCOM commander was, and still is, part of the culture that is impervious to the fact that 20 years of trying it their way did not work.

Just as it did after Vietnam, the military, and especially the Army, must conduct a comprehensive review of why it exists. The purpose of the Army is to visit profound violence on our nation’s enemies; it is not to rebuild failed states. We have decades of experience: counter-insurgencies and nation-building does not work for America. We do not have the stomach for long wars of occupation—and that is a good thing. We are a nation of commerce, not conflict. A constellation of retired stars will tell you that the two can coexist. They are wrong. . . . [Retired Vice Chief of Staff of the Army General Jack] Keane sees raw numbers (and ignores the stark evidence that there was no progress over 20 years) and thinks that America’s Army can sustain that level of commitment. It cannot, and the opportunity cost to the culture of the force is much too great. Ignore him. Ignore Petraeus, McMaster, Stavridis, and the rest of their ilk.

Concurrent with its review of purpose, the Army must reevaluate its size and how it is organized. The active component is much too large. . . .

* * *
And while we are on the topic of “too large,” DoD must be halved. There are too many flag officers, too many agencies, departments, and directorates. . . .

Instapundit » Blog Archive » THOUGHTS ON AFGHANISTAN, from a senior military officer with whom I am acquainted: I ask that you…

THOUGHTS ON AFGHANISTAN, from a senior military officer with whom I am acquainted: I ask that you not use my name. I am a currently serving General Officer and what I have to say is highly critical of our current military leadership. But it must be said. I don’t blame President Biden for the...

pjmedia.com

That article by Glenn Reynolds was a good post, although I would prefer a source who is not anonymous. The tone reminds me of "About Face" by Hackworth. He tilted at windmills, too.

 

[franknd]

That article by Glenn Reynolds was a good post, although I would prefer a source who is not anonymous. The tone reminds me of "About Face" by Hackworth. He tilted at windmills, too.

I tend to agree. A general officer who believes what this GO writes should choose not to be a part of it anymore. He should retire and make his case publicly in the process. If you think about it, what's he waiting for? It would have a lot more credibility that way and surely get more attention than an anonymous post on Instapundit. Of course, doing so would probably endanger his retirement opportunities in one of those opulent Crystal City high rises with a defense contractor. . . .

 

[cb7893]

There are still 10,000 to 15,000 AMERICANS still in Afghanistan and there is currently no plan to evacuate those who don't happen to be in Kabul.
That would be "standing on the concrete at Bagram air base in Kabul", to be more specific.

Outstanding.

Small nit here. Bagram AB is ~35 miles north of Kabul and is still empty from US withdrawal a couple months ago. Karzai international airport in Kabul is where we are evacuating people and holding the airport. I'm surprised we haven't tried to also secure Bagram to help with evac since it's away from crowds, basically a fortress, and would be an easier base to do a country-wide evac. But I'm being an armchair general so .

Smaller Nit here.

You make a good point, but ~35 mi Kabul to Bagram is not like Downtown Denver to DIA or KC to KCI. That's a lot of buses and helicopters to load up. Every vehicle or aircraft would be mobbed the same as was the C-17 we see on TV.

The US froze nearly $9.5 billion of Afghanistan's reserves, reports say — leaving the Taliban facing a cash crunch and currency woes

Afghanistan's acting central-bank chief said the population could soon be facing strong inflation that would hit the poor.

markets.businessinsider.com

Maybe that becomes ransom money to facilitate the exodus.

Taliban militants violently disperse rare Afghan protest

Taliban militants have attacked protesters in eastern Afghanistan who dared to take down their banner and replace it with the country’s flag.

apnews.com

The title of the article doesn't do justice. The gist of the article to me is that the Afghan Central Bank has no cash and Ashraf Ghani left with bags of cash and is sitting in the UAE.

 

[Heatherg21]

While I would welcome an 'audit' as it were on where all the money went, and a serious inquiry into decisions made, I doubt it would reveal the truth, or if it did, that heads would roll or major change occur.

I mean Macarthur fled the Philippines, claimed the rebel victories as his own, failed to stock food and make sure his troops had supplies and was awarded the Medal Of Honor. The order to put planes in the air was refused over and over. So our planes were on the tarmac as prime targets. We seem to have a troubled history of awarding top brass during fiascos. Granted, I am just a Monday morning QB here.

I never supported the idea of 'winning hearts and minds' and nation-building, disguised as something else. There was no historical president to being successful with tribal factions in Afghanistan. None. And centuries of evidence to say otherwise. We should have left a residual force, and it should have been at Bagram. Leaving Bagram and assuming we could defend Kabul is one of the dumbest things I can imagine. And I have no military experience, am no expert. It seems crazy we are watching this unfold.

 

[Infantry_Dad]

Enter China

China looks forward to 'friendship' with Taliban but doesn’t recognize their rule — yet

The Chinese Communist Party said it looked forward to continuing its “friendship and cooperation” with Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover of nearly the entire country, although it stopped short of recognizing the militants as the legitimate rulers of the country.

news.yahoo.com

Exactly .... https://www.forbes.com/sites/arielc...-the-us-retreats-china-rises/?sh=69fadb9f46c2

 

[Day-Tripper]

Small nit here. Bagram AB is ~35 miles north of Kabul and is still empty from US withdrawal a couple months ago. Karzai international airport in Kabul is where we are evacuating people and holding the airport. I'm surprised we haven't tried to also secure Bagram to help with evac since it's away from crowds, basically a fortress, and would be an easier base to do a country-wide evac. But I'm being an armchair general so .

"Hamid Karzai International Airport".

Let's start a poll on the date this airport changes names. I pick August 22nd.

Let's start another poll on when air traffic in-and-out of HKIA ends completely. I pick November 1st.

 

[Heatherg21]

While I would welcome an 'audit' as it were on where all the money went, and a serious inquiry into decisions made, I doubt it would reveal the truth, or if it did, that heads would roll or major change occur.

I mean Macarthur fled the Philippines, claimed the rebel victories as his own, failed to stock food and make sure his troops had supplies and was awarded the Medal Of Honor. The order to put planes in the air was refused over and over. So our planes were on the tarmac as prime targets. We seem to have a troubled history of awarding top brass during fiascos. Granted, I am just a Monday morning QB here.

I never supported the idea of 'winning hearts and minds' and nation-building, disguised as something else. There was no historical president to being successful with tribal factions in Afghanistan. None. And centuries of evidence to say otherwise. We should have left a residual force, and it should have been at Bagram. Leaving Bagram and assuming we could defend Kabul is one of the dumbest things I can imagine. And I have no military experience, am no expert. It seems crazy we are watching this unfold.

EDIT, 'precedent' not president. Dang auto correct.

 

[AF6872]

I have read some of Gibbon's Decline and Fall. Not all volumes as I am still alive (no one could read all and live. Cover to cover War and Peace was the max ). Someday my great great grandchildren will read the history of these days, if they still teach reading, and weep. My subdued rant

 

[Day-Tripper]

Interesting thoughts about Afghanistan and senior military leadership from a current General Officer. Here are some excerpts:

We should blame President Bush, not for the decision to attack into Afghanistan following 9-11, but for his decision to “shift the goalposts” and attempt to reform Afghanistan society. That was a fool’s errand any student of history would have recognized. And yes, we should place blame on President Obama for his decision to double down on failure when he “surged” in Afghanistan, rather than to withdraw.

However, most of the blame belongs to the leadership of the US military, and the Army in particular. The Washington Post’s “Afghanistan Papers” detailed years of US officials failing to tell the truth about the war in Afghanistan, “making rosy pronouncements they knew to be false and hiding unmistakable evidence the war had become unwinnable.” That report was two years ago, and the stories within it began more than a decade before that. Afghanistan was, and always will be, “unwinnable”.

* * *

General Milley must resign. Not only is he the Chairman of the Joint Staff, prior to that he was the Chief of Staff of the Army. While all services share the blame, the Army is the land domain proponent. The 20 years of failure in Afghanistan is an Army failure. Scores of other generals also deserve a thorough evaluation; many of them are complicit in the lies to protect a decades-long failed strategy.

Secretary of Defense Austin also must be fired. The recently retired Army general and former CENTCOM commander was, and still is, part of the culture that is impervious to the fact that 20 years of trying it their way did not work.

Just as it did after Vietnam, the military, and especially the Army, must conduct a comprehensive review of why it exists. The purpose of the Army is to visit profound violence on our nation’s enemies; it is not to rebuild failed states. We have decades of experience: counter-insurgencies and nation-building does not work for America. We do not have the stomach for long wars of occupation—and that is a good thing. We are a nation of commerce, not conflict. A constellation of retired stars will tell you that the two can coexist. They are wrong. . . . [Retired Vice Chief of Staff of the Army General Jack] Keane sees raw numbers (and ignores the stark evidence that there was no progress over 20 years) and thinks that America’s Army can sustain that level of commitment. It cannot, and the opportunity cost to the culture of the force is much too great. Ignore him. Ignore Petraeus, McMaster, Stavridis, and the rest of their ilk.

Concurrent with its review of purpose, the Army must reevaluate its size and how it is organized. The active component is much too large. . . .

* * *
And while we are on the topic of “too large,” DoD must be halved. There are too many flag officers, too many agencies, departments, and directorates. . . .

Instapundit » Blog Archive » THOUGHTS ON AFGHANISTAN, from a senior military officer with whom I am acquainted: I ask that you…

THOUGHTS ON AFGHANISTAN, from a senior military officer with whom I am acquainted: I ask that you not use my name. I am a currently serving General Officer and what I have to say is highly critical of our current military leadership. But it must be said. I don’t blame President Biden for the...

pjmedia.com

Frankly, and I'm probably in the minority here, but I cannot disagree more. The Army (both active & reserve elements) are far too SMALL. A nation of 330 million with less than 500,000 active army personnel which wishes to be able to extend its power globally? Too small. And a larger ready reserve would be beneficial as well.

Navy & Air Force could be bigger, too, with more personnel, ships, aircraft, etc. Are we better with 200 F-35s or 1,200 updated F-16s? Did the A-10 have to be retired?

Are China, Russia, Iran et al impressed that the size of the US armed forces is 30% less than it was in the 1980s?

Sure, the appetite for enlarging the armed forces, including using our greatest national resource - our people (yes, a draft), isn't great right now, but the hangover of the quasi-defeat (or tie?) in the Global War on Terror won't last forever. Returning to a pre-9/11 status, i.e. no wars of insurgency, no wars of liberation, no occupations, no ill-planned crusades (might not Saddam's Iraq have been a better one than what we have now? our Middle Eastern allies, including Kuwait, thought so).

P.S. I realize the current political climate & the cold civil war the US is engaged in make my above-cited thoughts virtually impossible. Too bad.

 

[Day-Tripper]

"Hamid Karzai International Airport".

Let's start a poll on the date this airport changes names. I pick August 22nd. New name "Mullah Omar Memorial Islamic Only No Infidels or Women Allowed International Friendship Airport"? Catchy, eh?

Let's start another poll on when air traffic in-and-out of HKIA ends completely. I pick November 1st.

 

[Soldiergriz]

While I would welcome an 'audit' as it were on where all the money went, and a serious inquiry into decisions made, I doubt it would reveal the truth, or if it did, that heads would roll or major change occur.

I mean Macarthur fled the Philippines, claimed the rebel victories as his own, failed to stock food and make sure his troops had supplies and was awarded the Medal Of Honor. The order to put planes in the air was refused over and over. So our planes were on the tarmac as prime targets. We seem to have a troubled history of awarding top brass during fiascos. Granted, I am just a Monday morning QB here.

I never supported the idea of 'winning hearts and minds' and nation-building, disguised as something else. There was no historical president to being successful with tribal factions in Afghanistan. None. And centuries of evidence to say otherwise. We should have left a residual force, and it should have been at Bagram. Leaving Bagram and assuming we could defend Kabul is one of the dumbest things I can imagine. And I have no military experience, am no expert. It seems crazy we are watching this unfold.

We will learn more over time. There are many, many senior leaders...most in the Army who will not be shy about this. They know and have known for a very long time the efforts there were fruitless.

Political arbitrary force caps..."Allies" with caveats prohibiting "combat" for their troops...and dozens of other nonsense are well documented and widely known and despised. We never had the political will to win anything there beyond the first several years when the military objectives were achieved.

As far as the size of our active duty forces...we need to shed several GO led, "enterprise" commands, and replace them with Brigade Combat Teams...you know...real Army units that can fight and win.

 

[AF6872]

OK: Bagram is gone (very, very stupid if they knew this was coming). US Infantry is concentrated at an airfield surrounded by hostiles with no way in or out or supply other than air. Anyone remember Khe Sanh?