AFROTC Pilot Slot Chances

[Raptor47]

How is 1/10th not a big deal? Lol. There are larger portions, but they all matter significantly for a reason.

Here is how this application process was described to me by a major who has been doing these AFROTC rated appointments the past few years. CGPA is 10%, commander's ranking is 40%, etc., etc.

Lets compare bb2405's CGPA and the pilot selectee average, say a 3.2 (could be off by a few, but that is what the avg was a few years back). This CGPA is worth 10%. Putting that into scale, bb2405 would be earning 6.675 points possible of the 10 in the CGPA category. Now lets take a look at the average select. He/she would be earning 8 points of the possible 10 -- a difference of 1.325 points.

Lets look at a commander's ranking, worth 40%. bb2405 scores a 26.8 minimum points of the possible 40 being in the top 3rd of the class. Now lets say bb2405 is actually in the bottom 3rd of the class, or at that very point -- 33%. The total points of the 40 possible would now be 13.2 -- a difference of 13.6 points.

My advice to the OP would be that with only one semester left before applying, play this to your advantage. If a few harder classes can be pushed off, do it and take a few fluff classes to help compensate a few that have weakened your GPA previously.

My emphasis here isn't that GPA doesn't matter, it is that there are much more other things to focus on aside from a few bad classes that could funk with someone's GPA (i.e. commander's ranking).

I'm not here to get into a debate. I am trying to shed some light on a hopeful pilot selectee that despite having a few posters make sure to hit home that their GPA isn't the highest, I still don't think there is a reason to fret.

 

[Pima]

Not disagreeing with you, BUT the fact is we still have to acknowledge the pool.

AFROTC now forces cadets to sign a rated/non-rated slot for SFT. Only 391 were offered pilot right off the bat as a 300 this year.

Somebody is going to be #392. Now, that 10% might be the make or break for them. It can be so close to 1/1000 of a point between 391 and 392.

The OP has top 1/3rd, strong PFA, PCSM and AFOQT. Their weakness is their cgpa.
~ They also have yet to take the TBAS, which can impact their score.

Here is my fret. UPT is not just about handling the stick. You have to fight through the academics too. Heck, my DS saw 2 washed out of IFS before they stepped into a plane. He saw 4 at UPT. Failing an exam is not 50/60/70%. I think it is 80, and even than you are the bottom. When you leave IFS, they send to your UPT base your records. They know all about you before your arse shows up for in processing.

Just saying, great if you get it, but reality will slap you in the face if you think UPT is all flying.

Just me, as a wife that lived through her DH wing as a WSO aka CSO now, and a Mom of a pilot that was an AFROTC scholarship/no conditional events cadet with a 3.43 cgpa

 

[Non Ducor Duco]

Finally, my pet peeve is posters forget that a lot has to do with the candidate pool. Last years stats may not be the same for this upcoming year. Big Blue can only send so many every year through the UPT pipeline.
~ Use SFT 2014 rate as an example compared to SFT 2015. The amount of cadets attending SFT did not change...@1900/2000 cadets, but the % rate was dramatically different. 14 was less than 60%, 15 was over 90%. Same amount, but 15 had less cadets fighting for a lot than 14.

That's not right, way more people got selected this year. Last year had 1890 selected (60%), this year's pool was about the same size and yet the selection rate was close to 90%. Many of the cadets that would have easily gotten a slot in FY13 or FY15 didn't. Cadets with 2.6 gpa's had chances in those years, and yet in my year many engineering students with 2.9 gpa's were told no. We were told that the 20% buffer that they normally have each year to account for washouts later on was cut from FY14 because of budget cuts, now they've added that back to the FY15 group because the AF panicked early and cut so many of us. FY13 was told that they would be cut deeply, that didn't happen and they sent too many to FT, the next year got hit hard and we suffered for it. All of a sudden the AF is under manned and has money to spend on scholarships, they're pushing more cadets through FT, enlisted personnel that were given pink slips are being asked to come back.

That's how I understand it, someone can correct me if I'm wrong. A year makes a big difference. This year was less competitive, the flip side of that is that pilot slots for this year may be more competitive, or that there may be a force reduction board in their future. The AF is on a binge right now, but you never know when that'll change again and the AF starts shrinking again.

 

[Pima]

I am confused.

That's not right, way more people got selected this year. Last year had 1890 selected (60%), this year's pool was about the same size and yet the selection rate was close to 90%.

Your post agrees with me that the number is the same for SFT, right? If so, remove that dang % and deal with the number only.
~ @1900 will go to SFT. The selection rate is tied to the pool size. 60% compared to 90% selected doesn't matter. 1900 is the number HQ needed for each year group.

My issue was don't say as a 200 selected this year that a 2.whatever equates to being safe for the 100 without knowing the 100 pool size.

So where are you disagreeing with me? Do you not agree they did not change the amount? You have stated in your post it is tied to the amount.

Now to your next point.

I have said for the entire time here as a poster that the AF is bulimic. I am not making light of the disease. The AF has done the binge/purge for decades. That is just how it is. Reality is the AF could not predict the economic downswing, and had to binge because of the downswing.
~ AF pilots, maintainers were not being hired by airlines for @ 13+ years at the same rate they were being hired between 1995-2001. Essentially that meant they had a problem due to 9/11.

As far as the Pilot aspect, let's discuss this. Reality is the AF knows that they will be short in the next few years because the FAA regulations and commercial airlines not hiring for a decade+, they will be recruiting big time for pilots. Military is their number 1 pool.
~ The problem is the AF can only push through so many students every year. There are only so many IPs and T/1/6/38s to go around. Do you see anywhere in the AF world announcing a new UPT base or more T1/6/38s delivered?
~~ If not than you are still looking at only 1100/1200 a year winging.

Let's move on...RPA is a big part of the future, and they also have a retention issue. Just like UPT they can only get so many through the program. RPAs no longer drop out of UPT.

I think it comes down to how view things. I see the numbers, and they have not changed in years, be it SFT, UPT/UNT/RPA. That is the pipeline.

Big Blue said X amount, not X%. Again the amount didn't change, the % did. To tell a cadet...feel safe because XYZ is not right unless you know the pool size. As posters, we are not privy to that information.

 

[Non Ducor Duco]

My disagreement is that the number selected DID change. They didn't send the same amount of cadets just with a smaller pool this year. The pool was about the same. This year the Max's are bigger as they had a few hundred MORE slots to give this year than last year.
FY13 sent 2100-2200 cadets
FY 14 sent 1890 cadets
I don't know the exact number for FY15, but it had to be around the same number sent in FY13.

 

[Pima]

My cranium hurts.

The pool was not the same size. 58% went last year. 90% this year, maybe 200 more, let's say 2090.

Now please do the math for me. @60% with 1900 means, the candidate pool was @3200. The 90% rate of 2100 would equate to @ 2300 candidates. @900 less boarded.

In the end 10% growth ...1890 to 2090 means that a pool size like 14 would have had 63%. 15 had a smaller pool. That is all it is.

let's keep it to the fact that when we give advice we remember that 90% this year can be 60% next year. 200 more slots is just 10% more, great for those cadets, but when you throw the numbers around be ready to see that the AF has rarely moved on how many they select.
~ AFROTC cannot predict the amount of 100/200/250s.

Just show me the math that 58% were selected last year, 90% this year and only 10% increase in selection. Prove to me that it was not pool size. It is a mathematical equation.

Show me your math to say it. Your premise is 10-15% growth, same pool size. My premise is you can't jump 30%+ with only 10-15% more slots available unless the pool size was reduced.

 

[Non Ducor Duco]

My cranium hurts.

The pool was not the same size. 58% went last year. 90% this year, maybe 200 more, let's say 2090.

Now please do the math for me. @60% with 1900 means, the candidate pool was @3200. The 90% rate of 2100 would equate to @ 2300 candidates. @900 less boarded.

In the end 10% growth ...1890 to 2090 means that a pool size like 14 would have had 63%. 15 had a smaller pool. That is all it is.

let's keep it to the fact that when we give advice we remember that 90% this year can be 60% next year. 200 more slots is just 10% more, great for those cadets, but when you throw the numbers around be ready to see that the AF has rarely moved on how many they select.
~ AFROTC cannot predict the amount of 100/200/250s.

Just show me the math that 58% were selected last year, 90% this year and only 10% increase in selection. Prove to me that it was not pool size. It is a mathematical equation.

Show me your math to say it. Your premise is 10-15% growth, same pool size. My premise is you can't jump 30%+ with only 10-15% more slots available unless the pool size was reduced.

I was mistaken earlier on the number of selectee's last year, I added an extra 300 to that number in my mind. I went back and found the official stats.

FY14 EA Selection Stats
2,650 cadets nominated
1,590 selected
1,060 non-selected

Overall Select Rate: 60%
Tech Select: 65.5%
Rated Selects: 60.4%
Non-Tech/non-rated select: 17%
Nurse Select Rate: 43%
(174 scholarship cadets not selected)

Select Averages:
CGPA: 3.38
SAT/ACT: 1287/27
PFT: 96.8

The original selection rate for this year was 85%, if the pool size was still around the same at 2500-2600. With 2100-2200 selectees that would give you a 85% selection rate, about 600 extra slots than last year. Later on a few hundred extra slots were given out to bring the selection rate up to 89% or somewhere around there.

My point to all this is that there were several hundred extra selectees this year than last year, but the pool size was about the same. My year wasn't more competitive because we had more people going up for the boards, it was more competitive because there wasn't enough money so and thus way less slots to compete for.

 

[Pima]

I don't buy into the money aspect as you are posting, but I agree money is an issue.

The military is a trickle down organization. They have a ratio for Flag to Field, Field to Company. Officer to Enlisted. It even breaks down to O2 to O1. Due to money issues, they did a mini-RIF/SERB and surgically hit certain year groups. That than impacted the ADAF members. By cutting a % of Field grade it impacted Company grade officers. When they looked deeper they needed to reduce the ratio of new O1s in the pipeline. Hence why the class o 13/14 were allowed to walk voluntarily.

So yes, you are right, but it was more than money, it was personnel too.

Now, MPC is looking at their 5 year plan, and how the airlines hiring again at a very high rate, and the low % of rated signing on for bonuses, they see that they will be short. The pipeline opened up not because of money....sequestration is still a part of the DoD budget, but because if they don't open the spigot now, they will be screwed later on.
~ They have also taken a new approach. Big Blue has announced that they are opening up the OCS spigot big time.

The military will always be behind the 8 ball impo. They can't predict something like 9/11 or the unemployment rate in 07/08 that lasted for years. Simultaneously, they than get hit with budget cuts.
~ It will always be the perfect crap storm for them.

Part of the military as a member is timing. You can't control that aspect. The FY 16 will later on be a high % rate for O4. See above...your comment of only 1590 and mine of rated leaving at a high rate.
~ In 98 the DoD went and said OH CRAP we cut too many in the 92 RIF. The promotion rate went from 60+% to 85%. Pay raises were 10% plus for those year groups for several years. Ranks above and below were much lower, 5% or below. Promotion boards were held 2x a year compared to 1x a year.
~~ Heck they even said if you want to Homestead (stay at one base), we will try to accommodate.

A few years later that was all gone. 5 years later, homesteading ...gone, unless you accept the fact that you will not be promoted. 5 years later and O4s were facing RIFs. Promotion rate was down again.

That is just the way it works. Binge/purge repeat. The only thing you can hope for is your year group is the purge, not binge. That is not something you have control over because you didn't/couldn't control the year you were born and went to college.

 

[Eagle 1]

~ You will go to work at 6 a.m.come home make dinner, play Xbox while eating dinner.

Ain't nobody got time for dinner and Xbox in UPT haha
Sorry, just wanted to grab onto that (personal perspective).

Pima's pretty much got this conversation on lockdown, but I did want to add on to something she said about academics. In all honesty, that's probably the single greatest factor in washouts here. IFS (IFT now) has their initial test on everything that you need to pass, then T-6s has what seems like an endless number of tests during the academic phase. If you fail 3, you're out. T-1s and T-38s are similar but by that point you should be fine.

On top of the academics, it gets much harder when you actually hit the flightline and you need to not only chairfly, but stay on top of learning all the maneuvers you need to do, preparing for your check ride, memorizing all the regs, being able to draw and talk about the aircraft systems, etc. For me I was never good at math and was a non-tech degree. By the time you finish UPT you'll basically have a minor in math and might as well be half an engineer.

What I did to stay ahead of academics and succeed in T-6s (and now as I push through T-1s) required an immense amount of time and dedication outside of the flight room. Almost all of my spare time was reading and teaching myself new things, then going back and reviewing old stuff, then reviewing the stuff I just read, and then chairflying. It's a year long process that burns you out at points, but it's why we're the best in the world. Just be ready for it and do what you can now to prepare. The harder you work and the more you understand basic concepts now, the better chance you have of surviving UPT.

By the way, work will occasionally start at 0430

 

[Pima]

Eagle,

I didn't want to scare them too much! Hence the 6 a.m. comment.

There were days that my DS at Little Rock schoolhouse had a 2 a.m. show time for a sim.

Heck he still has 4 a.m show times!

 

[Non Ducor Duco]

Just curious, what is the current climate for UPT washouts these days? If someone fails pilot training, are the let go or are they just reclassified into another AFSC?

 

[Zero]

Just curious, what is the current climate for UPT washouts these days? If someone fails pilot training, are the let go or are they just reclassified into another AFSC?

Depends on you (who you are, why you washed out) and the commander at the time.

 

[Pima]

100% agree.

 

[Non Ducor Duco]

What happens to the guys that go there and do their best, but can't hack it academically. Not everyone that goes to UPT is going to make it to the other side and the AF accounts for that attrition so what do the normally do with the ones that wash out? I know there are case by case situations, but the AF has to have a plan for what they want to happen to that % they expect to wash out. Is their goal to reclassify them or to cut their losses and say "thanks for playing, see ya later"?

 

[Zero]

What happens to the guys that go there and do their best, but can't hack it academically. Not everyone that goes to UPT is going to make it to the other side and the AF accounts for that attrition so what do the normally do with the ones that wash out? I know there are case by case situations, but the AF has to have a plan for what they want to happen to that % they expect to wash out. Is their goal to reclassify them or to cut their losses and say "thanks for playing, see ya later"?

Same thing above applies, but academically? Why are you worried about that, most go out for flying. If you fail a class in college its because you didn't try, academics are...academics. Study. If you fail academics I wouldn't hope for the best. There isn't going to be some quota, like you are looking for, if pilot fails they plan to keep. They put them where they need them, if they need them.

 

[Pima]

The fact is it really is going to come down to the needs of the AF. You would meet and FEB and from there they decide. If the AF has to cut your year group for whatever reason, they can easily say Buh-bye. Years ago when Bullet went through UNT, several of his peers were booted from UPT into UNT. Others were sent non-rated. There were still some that were given the boot.
~ He was double crewed at FTU. One pilot (USAFA grad) was told good bye.
~ His close friend out of AFROTC busted UPT. and told buh-bye. He got hired on by the Guard and became a Nav.

It comes down to manpower needs. Nobody can answer the question because nobody knows what the AF will need in 2-3 years.
~ ROTC grads typically wait 1 year before starting UPT. Assuming you are a rising senior, that means 2+ years before you are even in the T-6 course.

I do agree with Zero, academics is academics. Study.

I would also add that a factor might be how far down the pike you are. IFS? T6? T38/1?

FWIW, I could be wrong, but I believe only 1 out of the people that busted was handed walking papers. (He busted his PT, and had already busted an exam). The rest went non-rated, several Intel and the others went Cyber.

 

[Non Ducor Duco]

I'm not even going rated, still leaning more towards intel, I'm just wondering how much of a gamble it is to go rated.

 

[Pima]

It is a gamble, but from a different perspective than you are viewing as non-rated.
1. Rated board 300 yr.
~ They can get RPA or UNT, but want UPT.
~~~ I believe this year only 391 out of @800 got pilot, less than 50%.
~~ Rejecting RPA/UNT/ABM can mean the AF can say no chance ever for UPT. Basically, they can say take or leave it.
2. They must pass the FAA FC1 physical. It is not DoDMERB. It is a 3 day physical at WPAFB, with the last exam being a once over with a flight surgeon.
~ It is a stress point, while you are simultaneously going through the TS clearance.
~~ DQ/Remedial and life is upside down for months
3. No Private Pilot License (PPL) you go to Pueblo CO. 25% bust right there.
~ Bust meet the FEB. and hope for non-rated
~~ Emotionally deal with the bust while everyone moves on.
~~~ Oh yeah, deal with that, defend yourself to the board, and wait!
4. Make it to UPT
~ 25% bust right out of the T6 program (1st phase).
~~ See above...meet the FEB, deal with the emotions.
~~~ This time since UPT is a PCS, you have to also pack up and move.

Statistically, from getting a UPT slot to winging you have about as much of a chance as a HS AFROTC scholarship recipient commissioning.

Here is my DS's breakdown.
28 started at IFS. 21 graduated.
28 started at UPT in the T6. 21 moved on to T38/T1
28 started T38/1(7 wash backs from the T6). 21 winged.

IOWS 75% moved on each phase.
~ Assume 100 go to IFS. 75 graduate.
~~ 75 go to UPT. 56 move to T38/1....track
~~~ 56 track, 25% bust, 40 wing.

You gamble at each point for several years. You hope that they will keep you, but you are at risk each and everytime because the adage Service before Self is true.

 

[Pima]

Don't know why it went bold.

For posters wanting to go pilot, please believe me. It is 2 years + of proving yourself.

Even when you get to your 1st Op base you are proving you earned it.

 

[Stealth_81]

To add to Pima's reasons that it's a gamble, new UPT classes are being told that RPA drops are coming back. That means that you can complete UPT as a pilot and still get assigned RPAs if you're low enough in the class to not get a manned aircraft. RPA demand is forcing this.

Stealth_81