Air Force Field Training Rumors

Discussion in 'ROTC' started by tibreaker, Feb 28, 2018.

  1. tibreaker

    tibreaker Member

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    So I've heard rumors that there's only going to be a 60-65 percent acceptance rate for EA slots for field training this year. I'm kind of freaking out. Has anyone else heard something similar?
     
  2. ryangreg429

    ryangreg429 New Member

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    I have. The cadre at my detachment told me that was the percentage they are expecting, but this is all speculation. EA packages are due this week, at my det, and all you do is keep your head up and continue performing. I was also informed that non-rated, non-tech EA's are the most competitive, which makes sense.
     
  3. Humey

    Humey Member

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    Being that my son's detachment for the last 2 years was 100%, I would find it odd that they would only go 60-65 especially when they are all freaked out about lack of pilots. Who knows
     
  4. tibreaker

    tibreaker Member

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    I heard from another source that said the 60-65% number is coming from the number of AS 200 cadets in 2016 that intended to go to field training in 2018. So naturally, since there are fewer 200 cadets now than in 2016, the selection rate would be in the 80-90 % range. Can anyone confirm this?
     
  5. Pima

    Pima 10-Year Member

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    It really is going to come down to the pool size and how many officers they will need in 2020 for ADAF. If the pool size is larger than it was last year, but the manpower number has stayed the same or decreased than the percentage rate will obviously change. A few years ago it went from 95% one year to 58% the following back to 95% the year after that. The main reason was the pool size.

    As others have stated all you can do is wait. Good luck
     
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  6. tibreaker

    tibreaker Member

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    I don't see why the Air force just cant have a consistent selection rate 0f 75-80%. I don't see why they have to swing back and forth every year.
     
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  7. Humey

    Humey Member

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    So the year they did 58%, 42% of those who were in the second year didn’t continue as Juniors ? That seems harsh
     
  8. Jcleppe

    Jcleppe 5-Year Member

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    When my sons were in AROTC, they said that they could always tell when AFROTC had a low selection percentage for EA because there would be a big jump in the number of AFROTC cadets that would apply to switch to AROTC.
     
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  9. tibreaker

    tibreaker Member

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    Out of curiosity, are language majors considered non-tech? Because if they are I may be screwed. I'm a Russian major wanting to go non rated (hopefully intel).
     
  10. Pima

    Pima 10-Year Member

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    Yes for the large majority they were disenrolled. When I say the majority, it would be more realistic to say maybe only 1% got to move on as an AS500.

    Many did not ask HQ AFROTC for a waiver, hence the low percentage. The reason why is what Jcleppe stated, many just walk over to AROTC and join their program. That occurs because typically the CoC will tell them that the percentage of cadets being offered a waiver are slim, in essence, it was better to jump instead of waiting for the final answer from HQ if they wanted to serve in the military.
    Additionally another reason they jump is due to the fact that many of the CoCs know how promotion boards work for field grade. IE if an O3 is passed over in zone for O4, making O4 APZ (Above Promotion ZOne) is slim. The same is true here, they don't know what next years rate will be, but the selection board would know that they are APZ and will have to decide, even if it is a 90% rate whether to take the 200 that never met a board or the 500 that didn't get selected.
    ~ In Bullet's 21 yr career as a rated officer in the fighter world, not one of our friends that got passed over for O4 or O5 were picked up from the APZ board. Why? IMPO because the board does question why they should take a person that didn't make the cut on the 1st go is more worthy than the one that is up for their 1st go.

    Back on topic I will say that I would not worry a lot even if goes down to 65%, unless you have some issues. Issues = as a non-tech your cgpa is below 3.4, PFT is below 97. AFOQT is low. Ranking by the CoC is bottom 1/3. Want non-rated and you are a non-tech.
    ~ The year they dropped from 90s to 50s was the 1st yr I recall them doing the tech/rated, non-tech/rated, tech/non-rated and non-tech/non-rated. If memory serves me right the tech/rated had a selection rate in at least the 80%, but the non-tech/non-rated had a rate under 20%.
     
  11. Pima

    Pima 10-Year Member

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    Simple. because they know the number they need 2 yrs out from their commissioning, but cannot control the size that joins AFROTC.
    ~Kevster was at my DS's school, DS was his mentor. He was in the yr group that had 90+%. However when he became a POC the AS 100 class at this det went from 100 to over 200 cadets, just for 100s. HQ could not predict that many walk ons.

    Additionally you also need to realize that this pipeline is tied to ADAF pipeline. They have percentages set when it comes to rank. IE % of Flag to Field, Field to Company. Than within that they have a percentage of O3 to O2, O2 to O1. The assumption is if you make it through SFT, which is high, than you will go ADAF in 2 yrs. Believe it or not the economy plays a HUGE factor in the equation.
    ~ When we have low unemployment the military will see their retention rates dive. When the rate is high than the military will have high retention rates.
    ~~ Several examples of how the economy impacted the AF.
    ~~~ 2001 after 9/11, airlines started furloughing at an insane rate. Pilots stayed because airlines were not hiring. Thus, the UPT pipeline slowed down, and not only that, but by 2005 because the airlines were not hiring, they had a surplus of field grade officers for the O5 board and that selection rate was lower. See my earlier post on SFT selection.
    ~~~ 2007 USAFA offered 1650+ appointments, expecting a class size of 1350. 2008 class they offered 1350, expecting a class size of 1100. Again, they were looking at a 5 yr manpower aspect and the economy/military budget was a factor. If you are cadet, you probably don't understand that there was a huge housing boom and many parents would take a home equity line to pay for college, but when the housing market busted, they had no way to find the money so many people looked at the SAs or ROTC as a way to pay, plus since the unemployment rate was so high, the idea of 4 yrs AD (AFROTC) seemed appealing.
    ~~~ Currently the airlines are hiring at an insane rate due to 9/11 and FAA requirements for commercial airlines. Everyone thinks that due to pilot shortage they would up the numbers, but forget that not only can the UPT pipeline handle so many, but the same is true for the airframe school house. They don't need the FNG as much as they need the IP. They have a budget to adhere to every year. DS reported 4 mos after commissioning, and was casual for 4 mos. Now it is not uncommon to be casual for 6-9 mos after reporting or a yr in total from commissioning. There is a clog and they need to clear it.
     
  12. Pima

    Pima 10-Year Member

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    Language majors are akin to nursing. What I mean by that is sometimes they are considered critical manning. I am pretty sure they are non-tech, but do not assume anything regarding selection. A poster that has left had a DD (nursing) during the 50% rate. Not only did she get picked up, but because she had to do clinicals they moved her Max class date. Reason why was because in her yr group nurses were considered critical manning.
    ~ Lately foreign language majors have been getting an edge due to manning issues.

    My suggestion to you would be ask your CoC to find out if Russian is considered critical.

    I would also say as I have said before this is an OML situation where every part of the score matters. If you say that your cgpa is 2.9, PFT is 92, AFOQT is in the 50s and your CoC ranking is bottom 1/3rd and Russian is not critical manning, I would be a little nervous. However, if you say your package is 3.2, 98PFT, 75 AFOQT and top 10% than I would feel better.
    ~ Remember it is an OML score. They know how many they will offer, let's say 2100, and the board has 2800. Each portion is assigned a percentage of the score. It has been a long time, but I believe it is 20, 20, 20 and 40 for CoC, or a variation where the CoC is 50%.

    How did your end of fall semester review go with your CoC?
     
  13. tibreaker

    tibreaker Member

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    So when I switched into Russian from STEM, they said that I was allowed to keep my scholarship because Russian fell under the "needs of the Air Force".

    My stats:

    Major: Russian
    GPA: 3.35
    PFA: 97.7
    ACT: 24 (I know really bad)
    UCR: top third
    Non-rated

    I'm also at an SMC if that makes a difference. Should I look into switching to Army with these stats? I appreciate the responses Pima.
     
    Last edited: Mar 1, 2018
  14. Humey

    Humey Member

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    Unless you have not been invited, why make any changes.
     
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  15. Jcleppe

    Jcleppe 5-Year Member

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    I agree with Humey, I wouldn't make any decisions until you know whether you have been given an EA slot. Doesn't mean you couldn't reach out to the AROTC Battalion just to get some information for a Plan B if needed. For now just work hard to put yourself in the best opportunity to move forward.
     
  16. Humey

    Humey Member

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    I asked my son and he heard the same rumor. What he heard is that the big issue this year is that they have to many people in AF Rotc. It isnt that they are taking less to Leads (Field Training), in actuality they are increasing the number of spots, but it still wont be enough to space to handle everyone. That is supposedly why the percentages have dropped. Which is ironic for his detachment, as the current sophomore group is rather small, but the freshman class is huge
     
  17. sheriff3

    sheriff3 5-Year Member

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    From speaking with my AD Army DS they cannot get enough 2nd LTs’ fast enough into the pipeline. Just remember when it comes time to get branched National Guard and Reserves are on the table as well as AD, no guarantees for AD in the Army.
     
  18. Humey

    Humey Member

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    Everyone in AFRotc goes AD
     
  19. sheriff3

    sheriff3 5-Year Member

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    I’m aware of that, did my post say differently? My point was to alert those thinking of switching to AROTC that AD is not a given, technically not even for SMC grads.
     
  20. Humey

    Humey Member

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    No just making a point that in AFRotc everyone goes AD and in AROTC they dont. You are correct, you didnt say anything one way or another regarding AFRotc. I was just making the point that AF does it one way and you say Army does it differently. Wasnt an attack on you.