Another Arms Race coming?

I had an interesting dinner years ago with a colleague who had spent most of his professional life in China. He was convinced that China would eventually attack the U.S. through this debt/trade imbalance rather than militarily. Looks like they are hedging their bets and planning on both.
 
War with China would be frighteningly expensive. So we need to work to prevent that.

Our economy is no longer big enough to stand up to China alone economically. We need to put together a unified trade block with the G20 and a strong military alliance and we better be working on it quickly. We need to start by drawing a line over Taiwan and make sure that China knows they will pay a heavy price for trying to take it. And we need to have the allies to back us up.
 
War with China would be frighteningly expensive. So we need to work to prevent that.

Our economy is no longer big enough to stand up to China alone economically. We need to put together a unified trade block with the G20 and a strong military alliance and we better be working on it quickly. We need to start by drawing a line over Taiwan and make sure that China knows they will pay a heavy price for trying to take it. And we need to have the allies to back us up.
... and it wouldn't hurt to get some manufacturing back home. I remember in the 80s as jobs were moving to Japan that everyone I knew (except me) thought it wasn't a problem. We would just become a service economy and sell our high skilled services to the rest of the world. Not!
 
The problem
... and it wouldn't hurt to get some manufacturing back home. I remember in the 80s as jobs were moving to Japan that everyone I knew (except me) thought it wasn't a problem. We would just become a service economy and sell our high skilled services to the rest of the world. Not!
The problem is that we have a free market economy, not a government controlled economy and we are competing with a government controlled economy (China.) So all we can really do is raise taxes on the wealthy in order to able to spend more on defense. I see that as the only way of standing up to China militarily. We need a BIG increase in the defense budget and we need to spend it wisely on technology that will help us win a pacific war with China.
 
The problem

The problem is that we have a free market economy, not a government controlled economy and we are competing with a government controlled economy (China.) So all we can really do is raise taxes on the wealthy in order to able to spend more on defense. I see that as the only way of standing up to China militarily. We need a BIG increase in the defense budget and we need to spend it wisely on technology that will help us win a pacific war with China.
I think you have that mostly wrong. A free-market economy is more efficient and can grow the tax-base rather than having to levy ever-higher rates. Also, the DoD budget is not the only thing the government spends on. We could rebalance the budget to give a larger share to defense and/or reduce our mounting debts. It would just require a political fortitude many don't believe the US possesses.
 
I think you have that mostly wrong. A free-market economy is more efficient and can grow the tax-base rather than having to levy ever-higher rates. Also, the DoD budget is not the only thing the government spends on. We could rebalance the budget to give a larger share to defense and/or reduce our mounting debts. It would just require a political fortitude many don't believe the US possesses.
First, I am not for a minute advocating for communism or arguing that we should have a government-controlled economy. I prefer our system. However, it is not a question of efficiency. It is a question of what % of GDP the country devotes to preparing for war. "Guns or butter" as my college economics teacher used to say. In a government-controlled economy the government gets to decide how much to spend on ships and missiles without a vote. In our system, a totally divided Congress gets to decide how much to spend on defense.

Let me make this clear: I don't believe that - - right now - - we have the political fortitude to gear up for a war with China. And, most peace-loving democracies do not. The people of China have no choice. The same thing happened in WWII. We were totally un-prepared while Imperial Japan and Nazi Germany FAR outproduced us. The problem is that with the speed of modern war, and the types of weapons used, many of which take years to manufacture, a war with China would be over before we "wake up" and decide to increase spending and production. We won't have the 3 or 4 years to catch up like will did in WWII. So the time to "wake up" is now. And perhaps the answer is not an arms race at all, but diplomacy instead. I don't think China wants to fight a war against the rest of the Free World united against it. It may be easier to put together a coalition of other industrial democracies to stand up to China, that to get our Congress to increase the military budget enough to matter.
 
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It is time for us to unite and prevent the divide that has been taking place. Standing united and working together is how we have a strong platform to stand on. Being united is how we win. If we allow the divide we will lose due to our own action. Our behavior most recently has been embarrassing and I'm sure these other countries are paying attention.
 
It is time for us to unite and prevent the divide that has been taking place. Standing united and working together is how we have a strong platform to stand on. Being united is how we win. If we allow the divide we will lose due to our own action. Our behavior most recently has been embarrassing and I'm sure these other countries are paying attention.
Psalm 8:2 Out of the mouth of babes and US Marines hast thou ordained strength because of thine enemies, that thou mightest still the enemy and the avenger. Dude - you are too good!

Yes, uniting is the answer. We've got 18 Ohio class subs, each with enough fire power to pretty much demolish the planet (ok, sure, 4 of them only carry cruise missiles). Anything they miss can be handled by our Air Force's 65 year old B52s.

Arms races are dandy for keeping defense contractors in business, and justifying a large military.

But what has a microscopic bug done to the world these last two years?

What are the psychological operations being conducted against the U.S.A. right now doing to us? More harm than a few missiles (an overt attack might actually help unite us).

We don't understand Asian cultures. Even those of us of Asian heritage (unless you're a 1st gen) have no clue how Chinese, Russian, or other cultures operate. They are effectively monolithic, and don't deal with the social issues we do.

Now if a defense contractor can come up with a uniting solution, they will have really done something.
 
We need a BIG increase in the defense budget and we need to spend it wisely on technology that will help us win a pacific war with China.
You sure about that? Is our budget not big enough right now? While I agree that we should maintain a large defense budget, a major increase I believe is just a waste. What we do need is more efficient spending and actually investing in programs that matter. If we are investing in How not to offend someone 101 or Transgender programs, then we have our priorities wrong.

The past two decades we have been so focused on the Middle East, that has allowed China to grow and essentially learn our capabilities and tactics. Honestly, not sure if some of the Billions of Dollars worth of Tomahawks we have are effective in fighting an enemy with high tech air defenses. We've only used them on people fighting with Sandals and Toyotas.
 
My naive self is going to weigh in here. But didn’t we agree to be tied to China due to—-“if they need us and we need them” we have no mutually beneficial reason to annihilate one another?
Our situation is not the result of one or two or even four administrations. This has been half a century in the making.
We made a deal with the Devil. And some of that deal was made to make elites wealthy regardless of the negative effects on the general public.
While big military and big pharma and big manufacturing continue to get wealthy and advocate for their corporate selves, the American citizen is sold out.
Thinking that if we bought things from China meant they needed us and that in fact afforded us protection was naive and absurd.
 
My naive self is going to weigh in here. But didn’t we agree to be tied to China due to—-“if they need us and we need them” we have no mutually beneficial reason to annihilate one another?
Our situation is not the result of one or two or even four administrations. This has been half a century in the making.
We made a deal with the Devil. And some of that deal was made to make elites wealthy regardless of the negative effects on the general public.
While big military and big pharma and big manufacturing continue to get wealthy and advocate for their corporate selves, the American citizen is sold out.
Thinking that if we bought things from China meant they needed us and that in fact afforded us protection was naive and absurd.
It's much more complex than that. I'd really like to blame SOMEONE but a lot of what has happened is the combination of many thousands of little decisions made by ordinary consumers and low level corporate folks who are just trying to get by.
As an example: I spent most of my non-military career in the aerospace and defense sector and saw what I'm about to describe happen on a continuing basis.
For about five years, I worked as a Program Manger on the PHALANX CIWS program which was a key Navy weapons program that had a very demanding schedule. The Customer (USN) had two suppliers (Prime Contractors) who they pitted against each other by price with the winner getting the lions share of production and the loser getting just enough to keep the lights on. When my company first qualified as a producer, we made all of our wire harnesses and circuit cards in house as did our competitor. The next contract, we sharpened our pencils and moved the wire harnesses to a lower cost subcontractor in a Arkansas while they moved harnesses to a special opportunity zone on an indian reservation. this went on and on and by the time I left, our circuit cards were being made at a subcontractor in Mexico (paying $2 per hour) and wire harnesses at a subsidized manufacturer on Vieques Island while our competitor puled their entire operation out of Southern California and moved it to a much lower cost state.
This was not driven (directly) by our CEO or stockholders (some of who were the elites) but instead by our desire to stay in business because if we couldn't get our price below "theirs", we'd all be out of work. By the way, the end state that I described was our final competition where the Navy decided to have a "winner take all" type shootout which the competitor won so the entire workforce that I'd worked with eventually went to zero.
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Generally with regard to consumer goods like clothing, the cost of whatever labor is involved pretty much dictates it being outsourced to offshore and this is becoming even more evident now with a sharply rising minimum wage. I'm not getting political here and understand people's need to make enough money to function but just understand that a $15 minimum wage is competing with places that are much much lower and even IF there is greater productivity/quality for the $15, the sharp difference in rates will push the work to cheaper places. That is before environmental regulations, costs of power, OSHA concerns, and other factors kick in which are not things that help us be price competitive. The US still has a lot of manufacturing, generally of high tech/complex stuff like aircraft, medical equipment and other industrial goods but consumer level stuff is just too price competitive for production to be done in a high labor cost place like the US or Western Europe.
 
It's much more complex than that. I'd really like to blame SOMEONE but a lot of what has happened is the combination of many thousands of little decisions made by ordinary consumers and low level corporate folks who are just trying to get by.
As an example: I spent most of my non-military career in the aerospace and defense sector and saw what I'm about to describe happen on a continuing basis.
For about five years, I worked as a Program Manger on the PHALANX CIWS program which was a key Navy weapons program that had a very demanding schedule. The Customer (USN) had two suppliers (Prime Contractors) who they pitted against each other by price with the winner getting the lions share of production and the loser getting just enough to keep the lights on. When my company first qualified as a producer, we made all of our wire harnesses and circuit cards in house as did our competitor. The next contract, we sharpened our pencils and moved the wire harnesses to a lower cost subcontractor in a Arkansas while they moved harnesses to a special opportunity zone on an indian reservation. this went on and on and by the time I left, our circuit cards were being made at a subcontractor in Mexico (paying $2 per hour) and wire harnesses at a subsidized manufacturer on Vieques Island while our competitor puled their entire operation out of Southern California and moved it to a much lower cost state.
This was not driven (directly) by our CEO or stockholders (some of who were the elites) but instead by our desire to stay in business because if we couldn't get our price below "theirs", we'd all be out of work. By the way, the end state that I described was our final competition where the Navy decided to have a "winner take all" type shootout which the competitor won so the entire workforce that I'd worked with eventually went to zero.
.
Generally with regard to consumer goods like clothing, the cost of whatever labor is involved pretty much dictates it being outsourced to offshore and this is becoming even more evident now with a sharply rising minimum wage. I'm not getting political here and understand people's need to make enough money to function but just understand that a $15 minimum wage is competing with places that are much much lower and even IF there is greater productivity/quality for the $15, the sharp difference in rates will push the work to cheaper places. That is before environmental regulations, costs of power, OSHA concerns, and other factors kick in which are not things that help us be price competitive. The US still has a lot of manufacturing, generally of high tech/complex stuff like aircraft, medical equipment and other industrial goods but consumer level stuff is just too price competitive for production to be done in a high labor cost place like the US or Western Europe.
I agree with you completely regarding cost of doing business here. Our state increased minimum wage recently. And prices have gone up along with it. Several small businesses we frequented have closed and they state the cost of their payroll as the reason.
Complex issue for sure.
 
Generally with regard to consumer goods like clothing, the cost of whatever labor is involved pretty much dictates it being outsourced to offshore and this is becoming even more evident now with a sharply rising minimum wage. I'm not getting political here and understand people's need to make enough money to function but just understand that a $15 minimum wage is competing with places that are much much lower and even IF there is greater productivity/quality for the $15, the sharp difference in rates will push the work to cheaper places. That is before environmental regulations, costs of power, OSHA concerns, and other factors kick in which are not things that help us be price competitive. The US still has a lot of manufacturing, generally of high tech/complex stuff like aircraft, medical equipment and other industrial goods but consumer level stuff is just too price competitive for production to be done in a high labor cost place like the US or Western Europe.
Question: How does Germany do it? I'm asking out of curiosity, not to lead to an answer. How is it that my BIL in Luxemburg drives a BMW that was built in South Carolina as do all other BMW SUV owners across the EU. Mercedes does the same with cars they produce in Alabama. My knee jerk reaction is to think that Daimler and BMW consider the North America market large enough to justify a plant here, but also that they consider us a comparatively low wage country from which to export. They can produce the highest margin, lowest volume models domestically, but need the lower wages to produce and protect the low end of the product line. Not unlike the way US based auto makers consider a Mexico a low wage country, but also a large market.

 
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