Branch Night Class of 2020

Armor used to go out early. The new system and the increased number of combat arms slots offered to USMA cadets makes Armor possible even without BRADSO for cadets in the 800+/900+ OML.
 
jl123 said:
Branch detail is not new, but it has not always been part of the process. The numbers have been distorted ever since branch detail entered the process. To report that someone received their 1st choice when they actually got detailed to their 12th choice is a questionable measurement of satisfaction.

The dramatic increase in the number of cadets receiving their top choices this year versus last year is more likely due to the gamesmanship introduced by ratings "buckets" and changes to BRADSO rather than an actual increase in satisfaction.
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I have served for 28 + years, and have always known officers who were branch detailed. MI branch does not require many lieutenants, but requires many more CPTs and FG officers as context for those not familiar..and as an example.

Officers choosing BRADSO are most certainly getting their choice, which is positive and not deceptive, correct? They literally chose a longer commitment for their choice...

I think the 88% first choice is more wholesome than deceptive. But, admittedly this is a new process for me.

I just know the Firsties I saw on the streamed videos were pretty happy.
 
jl123 said:
As with the introduction of any new process, the new branching system is in need of a few tweaks for future classes.

What I like about the new system:
It forces cadets to interact with and give consideration to all branches, especially the ones in which they have the most interest. With extreme time constraints cadets often choose the path of least resistance and make choices with less than optimal information.

What I don't like about the new system:
  • Unlimited BRADSO/Limited BRADSO Charging. Under the old system, every cadet that needed BRADSO to get a branch got charged with BRADSO - they served three extra years. The new system allows a number of cadets to leapfrog the OML via BRADSO, but then not have to serve the extra three years. Several cadets figured this out during the simulation and much gamesmanship took place before submitting final preferences.
  • Rewards Mediocrity. In small/popular branches (AG, FI, MI, SC, QM, TC, etc.), where arguably OML rank is the best indicator, the new system allows cadets to leapfrog the OML by massive amounts, even within the same rating bucket. In these branches cadets near the bottom of the OML leapfrog cadets near the top.
  • BRADSO's are the last to get detailed. Higher ranking cadets get detailed before lower ranking BRADSO cadets, decreasing satisfaction of higher performers in order to increase satisfaction of lower performers.
  • Largely irrelevant for the majority of branch assignments. Branch Ratings and BRADSO have little effect on the Infantry, Armor, and Field Artillery branches, yet these branches account for more than half of the class. There are specified numbers that must be filled and in these branches, the final allocations are filled near the bottom of the bottom bucket. Ironically, these are also some of the most popular choices among those near the top of the OML. There are just more allocations than cadets who want them.
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You have an interesting perspective on this. I will talk to my son to see what he thinks about it. He is a yuck, so he may or may not know the ins and outs. As with everything, the new system will take some time to understand fully.

Thanks for your posts.
 
Cookiemom said:
I do not understand detailing. Can someone explain to a non military mom?
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Most non-combat arms branches do not have enough 2LT slots to accommodate everyone who gets the branch - ie. Military Intelligence, Signal Corps, AG, Finance, etc. (this year even Engineers got detailed). However, if West Point only branches enough officers in these branches to meet immediate needs, they will be short of officers later on. These branches are top heavy - the ratio of senior officers to junior officers is greater in these branches than for Infantry, Armor, and Field Artillery.

Therefore, these branches donate (detail) a specified number of 2LT's to Infantry, Armor, and Field Artillery (and a small number to Chemical) for the first 2 - 4 years. Detailing is done in two ways - Voluntarily and Involuntarily. It gets complicated, but here is a simplified explanation of the process of selecting which cadets get detailed:
  • The branches that provide the detailees are called Donor branches. The branches that get the detailees are called Recipient branches
  • Cadets in Donor branches receive that branch and then the Donor and Recipient branches select who gets detailed from the Donor branch
  • When cadets input their branch preferences they also indicate their order of preference for Recipient branches for each Donor branch on their preference list. Additionally, they indicate whether or not they wish to Voluntarily detail into a specific Recipient branch.
  • Starting at the top of the OML list for the Donor branch and working down, cadets who volunteered for detail are assigned to their preferred Recipient branch as long as allocations are available.
  • Then starting at the bottom of the OML list for the donor branch and working up, cadets are involuntarily detailed into Recipient branches until all remaining detail allocations are filled.
  • Men can be involuntarily detailed into any Recipient branch. Women can only be detailed into Infantry and Armor if they have opted into those branches.
Hope that helps.
 
@Soldiergriz In the 1980's the Army was much larger, but USMA still graduated about 1,000 cadets each year. There were plenty of 2LT allocations in every branch. No details, no BRADSO, and strict adherence to OML in branch assignments. That is why percentages from that era cannot be compared to the Detail/BRADSO era.

Likewise I don't believe that the percentages from last year can be compared to percentages from this year because the branching process is dramatically different. It may not be an apples to apples comparison - which is my first suspicion when I see such a large change over such a short period of time.

Although my preference is OML, I am not against the concept of BRADSO. It seems to have worked reasonably well as it was administered previously. I do question the wisdom of unlimited BRADSO, especially if some cadets get their branch of choice using BRADSO and are not required to serve the extra three years.

Good luck to your son. I'm sure they'll have the kinks worked out by the time he chooses a branch.
 
DrMom said:
Armor used to go out early. The new system and the increased number of combat arms slots offered to USMA cadets makes Armor possible even without BRADSO for cadets in the 800+/900+ OML.
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In the simulation Armor went out at 1,078 without BRADSO, but still very popular among top ranked cadets. This year the hot branch is MI - times change - in my class MI went out well into the bottom half of the OML.
 
gill0610 said:
Can’t open the link but thanks for the statistics. DS is a year away from branching and very nervous about getting something he really doesn’t want. This may reassure him a little.
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It was also stated that 100% did Not receive their Last choice!
 
jl123 said:
Most non-combat arms branches do not have enough 2LT slots to accommodate everyone who gets the branch - ie. Military Intelligence, Signal Corps, AG, Finance, etc. (this year even Engineers got detailed). However, if West Point only branches enough officers in these branches to meet immediate needs, they will be short of officers later on. These branches are top heavy - the ratio of senior officers to junior officers is greater in these branches than for Infantry, Armor, and Field Artillery.

Therefore, these branches donate (detail) a specified number of 2LT's to Infantry, Armor, and Field Artillery (and a small number to Chemical) for the first 2 - 4 years. Detailing is done in two ways - Voluntarily and Involuntarily. It gets complicated, but here is a simplified explanation of the process of selecting which cadets get detailed:
  • The branches that provide the detailees are called Donor branches. The branches that get the detailees are called Recipient branches
  • Cadets in Donor branches receive that branch and then the Donor and Recipient branches select who gets detailed from the Donor branch
  • When cadets input their branch preferences they also indicate their order of preference for Recipient branches for each Donor branch on their preference list. Additionally, they indicate whether or not they wish to Voluntarily detail into a specific Recipient branch.
  • Starting at the top of the OML list for the Donor branch and working down, cadets who volunteered for detail are assigned to their preferred Recipient branch as long as allocations are available.
  • Then starting at the bottom of the OML list for the donor branch and working up, cadets are involuntarily detailed into Recipient branches until all remaining detail allocations are filled.
  • Men can be involuntarily detailed into any Recipient branch. Women can only be detailed into Infantry and Armor if they have opted into those branches.
Hope that helps.
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Thanks you. Great explanation!
 
jl123 said:
@Soldiergriz In the 1980's the Army was much larger, but USMA still graduated about 1,000 cadets each year. There were plenty of 2LT allocations in every branch. No details, no BRADSO, and strict adherence to OML in branch assignments. That is why percentages from that era cannot be compared to the Detail/BRADSO era.

Likewise I don't believe that the percentages from last year can be compared to percentages from this year because the branching process is dramatically different. It may not be an apples to apples comparison - which is my first suspicion when I see such a large change over such a short period of time.

Although my preference is OML, I am not against the concept of BRADSO. It seems to have worked reasonably well as it was administered previously. I do question the wisdom of unlimited BRADSO, especially if some cadets get their branch of choice using BRADSO and are not required to serve the extra three years.

Good luck to your son. I'm sure they'll have the kinks worked out by the time he chooses a branch.
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Thanks!
 
The general consensus among cadets is that the 88% is a result of Firsties seeing what branch they were most likely to get and reevaluating what their “#1” choice was. In reality the 88% does not reflect what every cadet’s original first choice was—but instead the first choice they designated based on their odds. Cadets tend to shy away from leaving things up to chance and would rather have realistic expectations than be disappointed.

More changes are still being implemented over the coming years. To Mr. “so much for equality,” this was the last class where female cadets were able to opt out of infantry and armor. The Class of 2022 will be the first to share branch allocations with ROTC cadets. The Army is trying to figure out the perfect recipe for branching and will probably play around with the system for years to come.
 
prospective2019 said:
The general consensus among cadets is that the 88% is a result of Firsties seeing what branch they were most likely to get and reevaluating what their “#1” choice was. In reality the 88% does not reflect what every cadet’s original first choice was—but instead the first choice they designated based on their odds. Cadets tend to shy away from leaving things up to chance and would rather have realistic expectations than be disappointed.

More changes are still being implemented over the coming years. To Mr. “so much for equality,” this was the last class where female cadets were able to opt out of infantry and armor. The Class of 2022 will be the first to share branch allocations with ROTC cadets. The Army is trying to figure out the perfect recipe for branching and will probably play around with the system for years to come.
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All good points for current and future cadets to know.

Too bad this system is not similar to the National Residency Match in which the algorithm that’s used favors applicant preferences over residency program preferences. Also, applicants are highly advised to rank programs based on true preferences as opposed to “preference” based on their perceived best odds. Of course, one match is for branching Army officers and the other is for medical students moving on to speciality training, so totally different populations.

Either way, my DD is excited to have the opportunity to serve our country in uniform. She says she’ll still be happy to serve in almost in any branch if she doesn’t get an educational delay to go to medical school (or get accepted to medical school right out of West Point).
 
prospective2019 said:
The general consensus among cadets is that the 88% is a result of Firsties seeing what branch they were most likely to get and reevaluating what their “#1” choice was. In reality the 88% does not reflect what every cadet’s original first choice was—but instead the first choice they designated based on their odds. Cadets tend to shy away from leaving things up to chance and would rather have realistic expectations than be disappointed.
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Very True.

A lot of gamesmanship goes into preferences, even more so after seeing simulation results. An example from the simulation might help understand the gamesmanship and why some cadets don't actually input their true preferences.

Military Intelligence Allocations: 51
Number Required to Detail: 27 (15 Infantry; 5 Armor; 5 Field Artillery; 2 Chemical)
Number Assigned on OML in Most Preferred Bucket: 25
Number Assigned using BRADSO in Most Preferred Bucket: 26

Based on these results cadets observed that the chance of detail was extremely high:
  • Some cadets considered changing 1st preference to a different branch because they knew they had no chance of avoiding detail
  • Some cadets considered staying with MI, but choosing Voluntary Detail to avoid an unwanted detail branch
  • Some high OML rank cadets lost the branch or were close to losing the branch by lower OML cadets choosing BRADSO and realized they could "block the leapfrog" by choosing BRADSO with little chance of having to serve the extra 3 years
  • Some very high OML cadets realized it was mathematically impossible for them to get charged with BRADSO and choosing BRADSO would prevent them from being detailed
 
kittkatt said:
Any info on when EN went out and how many got detailed and where to?
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Haven't seen the numbers for the actual branching.

In the simulation EN went out at 456 in the Preferred bucket without BRADSO. That means that everyone in the Most Preferred bucket got EN regardless of OML rank and those with an OML rank of 456 or better got EN if they were in the Preferred bucket.

It also means that anyone in the Preferred bucket could get EN by BRADSO no matter how low their OML rank was. No one in the Least Preferred bucket could get EN no matter how high their OML rank was.

If I recall correctly as of simulation time the detail requirement for EN was 16. I don't know the breakout.
 
jl123 said:
BRADSO's are the last to get detailed. Higher ranking cadets get detailed before lower ranking BRADSO cadets, decreasing satisfaction of higher performers in order to increase satisfaction of lower performers.
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I don't understand why this would be the case. Can someone help me with the logic? Once the branch is chosen wouldn't the branch detail go to the lowest OML cadets and work it's way up the OML list until filled?
 
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