Change on Status

According to information on the ALO slideshow on the USAFA, statistics for the last four classes are:

Year 2007 2008 2009 2010

Qualified 2,481 2,305 1,928 2,000

Offers 1,629 1,683 1,746 1,720

Admitted 1,291 1,305 1,377 1,302

The projected class for 2011 will be 1,250, the smallest in four years. Using the averages, every qualified candidate has a 77.8% chance of receiving an offer. At this stage of the game, the most likely chance of receiving an offer will come from an initial appointment not accepted.
 
At this stage of the game, the most likely chance of receiving an offer will come from an initial appointment not accepted.

I am not totally positive on this but if USAFA works the same as the other academies, this is not a two-stage process of first a rejected appointment and then a follow-up secondary appointment. They know, from historical data, within a percentage point or so, what percentage will accept the appointments. They make the entire class offer and then depend on this historcial data to end up with the correct sized class.
 
Really? Wow, I did not know that. That is an interesting way of doing things. So is that why they have some varying numbers in the class sizes?
 
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