Day 1 vs Commissioning Day Numbers - How many made it?

Herman_Snerd

Herman_Snerd

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For those who themselves or their DD/ DS commissioned, how many of those present on your 1st day in your unit were still standing shoulder to shoulder with you at the commissioning ceremony? Generally what were the dor/ dq reasons for those who did not make it to commission? please anonymize and share if you're comfortable doing so. Thanks and congrats to those who made it to commission!
 
45 reported first day. 15 commissioned at graduation. A handful dropped and commissioned after college.

Some dropped right away after determining it wasn't for them (15). Some dropped because they figured they wouldn't get a scholarship, so decided to focus on grades and commission after college. Some dropped later in the program voluntarily. Some were DUI, brawling, showing up drunk to PT, and my personal favorite, taking a swing at a Sgt during OCS. Some were also dropped for grades.
 
kinnem said:
45 reported first day. 15 commissioned at graduation. A handful dropped and commissioned after college.

Some dropped right away after determining it wasn't for them (15). Some dropped because they figured they wouldn't get a scholarship, so decided to focus on grades and commission after college. Some dropped later in the program voluntarily. Some were DUI, brawling, showing up drunk to PT, and my personal favorite, taking a swing at a Sgt during OCS. Some were also dropped for grades.
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What school produced that bunch of derelicts?
 
Two ways to judge a drop rate. 1) The program is dysfunctional and pushing out qualified men/women or 2) program is doing a good job exposing men/women to the Service and they are making the responsible decision to remove themselves.

I have heard antidotally that the drop rates in general are shrinking. Some think it's because of the limited contact during covid. Less pressure on time and physical demands are keeping some, who would have dropped, in. My DD's battalion is having difficult time finding enough leadership opportunities because of the low drop rate between 4C - 3C.
 
My DD's school had @45% less in her class from Day 1 to commissioning. I am sure there are as multiple reasons many students do not make it. I think one of the reasons, at lease at my DD's school, was due to the difficulty of the academic curriculum. There were one or two transfers out to a new school, another was accepted to Naval academy, a few decided that it was not for them after first year, one medical, another did not pick up scholarship, and another attempted to change from naval to MO, but was not accepted.
 
Are you asking about drop rates from the first day of senior year or first day of freshman year? What @kinnem posted is actually well above average from day 1 of freshman year to commission after senior year. Here is Cadet Command's progression/retention rate (over the last 3 years) for Army ROTC :

Fresh -> Soph: 48%
Sohp -> Jr: 54%
Jr -> Sr: 83%
Sr -> Commision: 74%

Using the national average for Army ROTC, 45 freshman would only produce 7 commissions.
 
As commissioning approached, I was looking at photos from DS' NROTC journey. I came across a picture of him and four others taken at their swearing in. I realized that of the five of them in that photo, only two were actually commissioning. While out for his commissioning, DS told me his CO told them at orientation that only 40% would make it through to commission. He remembered that none of them believed it at the time. No one thought they would be the one to drop or be dis-enrolled. Some found the program was not for them. Some could not keep up academically. There were a couple of conduct related dis-enrollments. The ones who made it though are fine young men and women and will serve with honor and commitment.
 
MohawkArmyROTC said:
Are you asking about drop rates from the first day of senior year or first day of freshman year? What @kinnem posted is actually well above average from day 1 of freshman year to commission after senior year. Here is Cadet Command's progression/retention rate (over the last 3 years) for Army ROTC :

Fresh -> Soph: 48%
Sohp -> Jr: 54%
Jr -> Sr: 83%
Sr -> Commision: 74%

Using the national average for Army ROTC, 45 freshman would only produce 7 commissions.
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Wow. These are pretty shocking numbers to me TBH. How do you lose a quarter between senior year and commissioning?? I guess it's failure to graduate, but how the heck did that quarter get through the first three years and to/through advanced camp?

Honestly, 84% attrition strikes me as kind of absurd. I'd expect the biggest loss to be between MS-I and MS-II, and maybe a handful between II and III who don't get scholarships and choose not to contract, but that's about it.

I'm guessing the vast majority are academic casualties? Or are PT/weight and misconduct bigger issues than I imagined?

And what happens to the upperclassmen who attrit? Are there really thousands of enlisted ROTC disenrollees?
 
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Rising 1/C at an NROTC unit. My class started with around 55-56 and we are currently at 20. Most people who deserved to get kicked out got kicked out. Some decided it wasn't for them. Some got dropped due to grades, aptitude ARI, and academic dishonesty. My class also looks like its poised to get smaller even as we head into senior year. The class below me started out with around the same number and within two years have whittled themselves down to around 25-30. The major problem with that class is aptitude and the inability to stay on the right side of the law.
 
franknd said:
Wow. These are pretty shocking numbers to me TBH. How do you lose a quarter between senior year and commissioning?? I guess it's failure to graduate, but how the heck did that quarter get through the first three years and to/through advanced camp?

Honestly, 84% attrition strikes me as kind of absurd. I'd expect the biggest loss to be between MS-I and MS-II, and maybe a handful between II and III who don't get scholarships and choose not to contract, but that's about it.

I'm guessing the vast majority are academic casualties? Or are PT/weight and misconduct bigger issues than I imagined?

And what happens to the upperclassmen who attrit? Are there really thousands of enlisted ROTC disenrollees?
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The 26% of MSIVs who do not commission mostly consists of migrations (need an extra semester or two to graduate), but also inlcude ht/wt, pt, medical, or disciplinary (DUI, failed urinalysis or other disenrollable offenses).

Due to the high attrition, we also recruit G2G cadets, SMP cadets, and send people to Basic Camp to earn FR/SO ROTC credit. We can't meet mission if we only go for those who progress through all 4 YRs of ROTC. 84% is not really all that absurd when the majority of the population can't even qualify for military service, and less than 1% actually do serve.

Most cadets who are disenrolled never serve in the military, even as enlisted.
 
To respond, I was asking about year 1 day 1 to commissioning day numbers but all above is interesting! Thanks all for the enlightening, informative details shared. It makes me think of the hundreds of people each year who receive a "big check" in HS across the branches and think they have "won" a full scholarship, but in reality never get to cash it or have to give what they did receive back. For those not independently wealthy that's pretty rough stuff for all who are on this journey to continue to keep in mind. Thanks again.
 
FrauTeufelshund said:
Wow, these numbers are not what I expected. @MohawkArmyROTC, do you have stats specifically on recipients of 4 year national AROTC scholarships? How many make it to commissioning? Is the rate higher than above?
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I do not have access to that specific data, however the ORSA folks say they have a higher rate of commission, which justifies awarding HS scholarships. Anecdotally, almost every year I have a 4YR scholarship winner fail out of college during Freshman year. So the HS scholarship winners have a significant attrition rate as well.
 
For NROTC also observing similar attrition of national scholarship winners - NSI was a decimator 2 years ago (over 150 didn't complete NSI, and some recovered/ moved forward at their unit but many of those ultimately did not complete year 1), PFT failure to meet standard, GPA, unable to pass calc X2 and physics x2. I've seen a number of people prolong the drop through medical (drop from NSI on a medical, out half the first semester at college on a medical, and eventually dropping out before day 1 of year 2 having never passed a single PFT. Drug test failures, being arrested for DUI or fighting, some odd behaviors that weeded people out, etc. Some went to USNA or the USCGA, and a few more took a free year 1 but then didn't move forward.
 
Just wondering out loud here: From an academic and physical and leadership standpoint, SA cadets/mids aren’t too different from their ROTC brethren. I wonder if SA attrition for academic and conduct reasons is significantly lower than for ROTC, for the simple reason that cadets’/mids’ time is so structured and regulated, and professors are so widely available for EI.

In other words, seemingly less time and opportunity to get into trouble or slack off. Cadets/mids aren’t necessarily more angelic or less disciplined, just “more watched over” perhaps. Again, thinking out loud.
 
Not an actual discussion of commissioning, but attrition in general. My experience, although 30+ years dated, is that the 1st year for SA cadets and SMC (Immersive) cadets is sometimes a major shock to the system. Serving in the military if often a romantic concept at 100,000ft. Once you dig in and realize what the journey entails and the coolness of the uniform fades - reality sits in. I also think that the SAs/SMCs offer a unique academic challenge and a true test of time management. You can't "play" soldier all day and slack on your studies. - conversely, you can't slack on your military obligations either.

Understanding that the experience is different, I lost right at 35% of my freshman class at Norwich. Many left the first week and there was steady attrition until the end of the year. A good chunk did not return after freshman year. The vast majority of those that came back after the 1st year graduated. Fast forward to 2021, my son just finished up his knob year at The Citadel. I think they started with just over 700 in the class and ended in the low to mid 500s. This year was especially difficult and I think the environment had a lot to do with it, but I think 20% is a good number to use for attrition. Not sure how that compares to the SAs

Jumping off topic a bit, I would guess that the attrition numbers at SAs/SMCs is probably in-line with conventional universities/colleges.
 
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Many freshman are simply “trying rotc out” and don’t intend to continue which leads to the high attrition.
At the SAs I would assume a much higher % of freshman are committed and therefore the volunteer drop is lower. Non-volunteer drops is probably a constant.

our goal is 50 freshman to get 19 LTs.
The ROO gets me 50 freshmen- the staff gets me 19x LTs
 
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