Defense budget cuts for ROTC??

[Marist College ROTC]

I get what you were trying to say, but 5K for a CC is insane. CC's don't cost 5K a yr. They also typically don't have ROTC, so where would they train for the 1st 2 yrs.

Not sure if you thought 5K was insanely high or insanely low. 5K is an average cost for in state residents for community colleges in this area. The closest community college is significantly cheaper, only 3K per year.

The community college students train at our location. We currently have seven Cadets that attend community colleges. One of these has transferred to our school for the Spring semester. Three Cadets transferred over the Summer. One of these received a 3 year on-campus scholarship. It has been a very effective pipeline for us, at almost no cost to the taxpayer.

 

[Pima]

Marist that is a a way high number in our area. It is about 3K a yr here, in NC it is even about 2K there.

Every county has their own CC, in our area you can't drive 15 mins before falling over a CC. IS tuition in VA can range from 5-10K depending on the school. So, for your plan to have any motivation for the cadet to accept it, it would need to be different.

Additionally sine AF/Navy and I believe now the Army is going more towards STEM degrees, which are 5 yr programs without transferring it may actually cost more. Many colleges have a cap of how many incoming credits they will accept, usually around the 60 marker. That would mean the student would have to stay at the 15 credit area to make sure they don't go over, but may want to take more for the JIC they don't accept the credits from the CC. That is not even discussing the way the nursing programs work, which is very unique, miss one class offered at that 4 yr and you need to wait a yr. Most colleges with nursing programs are cut throat at the rising jr. yr even if you are attending that particular college. Many require the student to apply to the nursing program as a student in the college, at least that is true for ECU and VCU.

For ex: Cadet Smith goes 2 yrs to a CC, totaling 10K in scholarship, than he gets 30K once there at a private college, however once there the college only accepts 45 of their 60 credits, thus even if they were on a 4 yr plan the cadet has to attend another semester or 15K more. Bringing the total to 85K.

Old way and Cadet Smith goes to a 4 yr program for his entire collegiate career, the cost would be equivalent at least for AFROTC because even Type 1 does not pay for R & B. It would save money under your plan, but by doing so we may be forcing cadets to get a lower tier academic education.

For example: The student is accepted to Gtown, tuition is 42K a yr. If they opted to go ROTC, they are being told to go to a CC 1st, meantime Gtown has accepted them, but the FA packet still doesn't cut it. Thus, instead of Gtown they go to Ole Miss as an IS student, because they can enroll in that college due to the FA packet without ROTC money, but still do ROTC.

We would actually also be causing ROTC to redistribute their AD members, since the cadre would now be larger at Ole Miss and smaller at Gtown.

Looking at Marist it is 29K a yr for tuition. It is a private university. If a student doesn't get that tuition assistance from ROTC, and as you stated only the 5K for the CC, how many students would than opt to go to their IS college and not use the 5K at a CC? VT IS is @11K, FAFSA student loans for a freshman are 5500K, 6500 for soph. That leaves the student with 5K to make up, without including merit money. Let's face it the cadets that get scholarships for ROTC get it because they have the highest WCS, they probably will receive some form of merit because of their hs academic record.

That may equate to them going IS free or with small loans, enjoying the college experience, but maybe not at their dream college, like Marist. It is highly unlikely that as an MSIII they will transfer to Marist after spending 2 yrs at SUNY. This will cause ROTC to re-work their AD manpower at each college. PCSing you guys cost a lot more than 5K just in TMO costs alone, besides TLA, DLA, and per diem. Again, how many cadets do you have as a freshman or sophomore on ROTC scholarship? 5? 10? The 50K in savings, would be gobbled up because they may have to PCS 1 or 2 AD members.

Additionally, Marist College also uses ROTC as a recruitment tool for students. They are going to voice their anger if these units disappear or decrease in size due to this plan. Of course the school that is on the flip side getting more cadets will be printing up their shiny brochures, announcing that it is one of the biggest in the state.

There is always two sides.

As a parent, unless there was no way to swing it for the college and they were adamant that they wanted this school, I would tell them to go to the college that offered ROTC, and was your IS choice. Our DS2(not ROTC) is applying to only 3 colleges, mainly because they have the best program for his major. We discussed with him to apply for more, but he is one of those that is adamant. If he can't get into those colleges, he will go to CC and reapply next yr. Again we are in a state, that if you pull a 3.0 for the 2 yrs at a CC, it is automatic admittance to any IS college. We respect that, but my other 2 were the opposite and were going away to college no matter what to have that college life experience, even if it meant a lower tier college that we could afford.

I just don't think from a parental perspective that this is a smart option.

I think that it is wiser to give less 4 yr scholarships, more 3 yr scholarships. I think that if they have a system like the AF does with Types of scholarships the military also has more flexibility. I.E. 75% are Type 7 4 yr that can convert to Type 2 3 yr. Maybe they should give a subsection like Type 7 A and B. 7A can convert, 7 B cannot. They could also reduce the amount of Type 2's from @20% to 10%, which would also save them a lot of money. Type 1 is already only at 5%, so that really has less wiggle room to play with, but they still could reduce that down some more.

To me that would seem more optimal for manpower planning, than forcing a child to decide to go to a CC for 2 yrs and re-do the admission process 2 yrs later.

JMPO.

 

[JeRDLe]

Marist that is a a way high number in our area. It is about 3K a yr here, in NC it is even about 2K there.

5k Sounds about right for Colorado, @ around 15 creds/semester - that's after applying an additional funding grant provided by the state for up to 145 credit hours.

Here i was thinking it was cheaper than average in CO

 

[LineInTheSand]

ROTC has slowly been feeling the cuts. I had a few ROTC commanders in a DOD class I attended in Dec. 2009. They had lost a number of ROTC scholarships, their programs were hurting or shrinking because of it.

There's little doubt DOD doesn't spend money well, and it will have to feel the crunch other departments or agencies are feeling. Not always popular with the political party I identify with, but I've been disgusted with the way the Pentagon throws money around. Absolutely disgusted.

 

[patentesq]

While no one knows what the future will bring, here's how AROTC responded to budget cuts in the 1990s.

http://articles.latimes.com/1990-07-14/news/mn-233_1_army-units-rotc)

Note that the article was dated July (well after many aspiring ROTC cadets that year had paid their initial deposits at the schools affected). I'm sure this also affected students who were offered and accepted 4-year AROTC scholarships at schools affected by budget cuts. I'm sure August 1990 was a busy "scholarship transfer request" month.

Of course, this could have all changed immediately and dramatically that same month when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Things truly can turn on a dime.

CNN Money posted an article today, indicating that it doesn't expect resolution of the budget impasse until after the November 2012 election:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/28/news/economy/bush_tax_cuts/index.htm?iid=Lead

I think this will become increasingly problematic for the October 2012 board (FY13) and the availability next year of 3-year scholarships (largely due to uncertainty issues surrounding the FY13 defense budget),

(Please note that the fact that a unit was deactivated during the budget cuts of the 1990's has absolutely ZERO impact on whether that is likely to happen again!!!!).

 

[Pima]

Interesting article patentesq. A quick google search shows that the Army has reduced the number of units even further from 363 to 272 currently.

I agree regarding this probably will not be resolved until after the 2012 elections, which can cause even a larger problem, because typically if the party in control is voted out, they will play games during the lame duck session. That session typically is about partisanship and ramming!

Plus, if they wait until end of Jan. when they take the oath, it would be Feb. before this issue would be settled at best, probably more likely to be Mar/Apr. (1st 100 days).

At that point, the DOD would already be working on the FY14 budget, and ROTC boards would be winding down for HSSP and ISP. Look at TY AFROTC board dates the last is in March. AFROTC would be awarding scholarships based on the proposed FY14 budget that was created to absorb the shortage.

In the end because this is an election yr, contrary to the 90's scenario there is another glitch in the system that will be an impact.

Let's be real, with Occupy Wall Street, Tea Parties, and unemployment, no congressman is going to stick their neck out right now for the DOD to keep 650BN in their budget.

 

[patentesq]

Certainly pays for even 4-year scholarship recipients to have backup plans in place. I'm not sure what would happen to a student who received a 4-year offer to a school that was slated for deactivation (assuming that were to occur), especially if the student declined acceptances to other schools and those schools filled the class list with alternates.

My advice to prospective students: Don't make decisions before you have to because "Stuff Happens". And as Pima and many others have cautioned, "plan for the worst, but hope for the best." That is the hallmark of military decisionmaking.

 

[Jcleppe]

While no one knows what the future will bring, here's how AROTC responded to budget cuts in the 1990s.

http://articles.latimes.com/1990-07-14/news/mn-233_1_army-units-rotc)

Note that the article was dated July (well after many aspiring ROTC cadets that year had paid their initial deposits at the schools affected). I'm sure this also affected students who were offered and accepted 4-year AROTC scholarships at schools affected by budget cuts. I'm sure August 1990 was a busy "scholarship transfer request" month.

Of course, this could have all changed immediately and dramatically that same month when Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in August 1990. Things truly can turn on a dime.

CNN Money posted an article today, indicating that it doesn't expect resolution of the budget impasse until after the November 2012 election:

http://money.cnn.com/2011/11/28/news/economy/bush_tax_cuts/index.htm?iid=Lead

I think this will become increasingly problematic for the October 2012 board (FY13) and the availability next year of 3-year scholarships (largely due to uncertainty issues surrounding the FY13 defense budget),

(Please note that the fact that a unit was deactivated during the budget cuts of the 1990's has absolutely ZERO impact on whether that is likely to happen again!!!!).

It was interesting to read in that article that the number of officers commissioning prior to the cuts was in excess of 7000 and even with the cuts the total would be around 6000. Last year the Army had one of the larger mission sets totaling roughly 5600. the total number of ROTC battalions seem to be fewer now then even after the cuts of the 90's. It will be interesting to see how this shakes out this time.

 

[Pima]

Curiosity, AROTC is the only branch that I know which allows ROTC cadets to not go AD, if they have to cut costs how would IRR play into the equation?

Is this a factor for the DOD budget regarding cuts. Also they have SMP, how would this impact ROTC scholarships?

I am ignorant when it comes to these issues with the DOD budget, just curious if this may be an area that lean more towards from an AD pov, or drop from a cost benefit analysis since we are withdrawing from the sandbox.

 

[LineInTheSand]

Why make IRR an option? Cut the programs. Think a bunch of ROTC cadets have more to offer than current active duty officers who are being cut? No. Why pay for someone's education for 4 years only to send them in IRR?

 

[Just_A_Mom]

Curiosity, AROTC is the only branch that I know which allows ROTC cadets to not go AD, if they have to cut costs how would IRR play into the equation?

Pima - I am not sure of your point. AROTC cadets do not commission into the IRR. AROTC also serves to provide 2LT's to the Army National Guard and the US ARMY Reserves. This is a legitimate part of their mission. The fact that not all AROTC cadets commission into AD has ZERO to do with budget cuts.

Even though the Army may be cutting back on commissioning AD officers -there is still a need in the Reserves and National Guard. So much that the Army Reserves is paying a $10,000 bonus to ROTC cadets who choose Transportation, Ordnance or Quartermaster - if they were not scholarship cadets.

 

[patentesq]

The fact that not all AROTC cadets commission into AD has ZERO to do with budget cuts.

I don't think this is correct. Higher budget cuts will translate directly into fewer AD slots for ROTC. The budget cuts of the 1990s hit the reserves and NG just as hard: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...tive-duty-reserve-personnel-guard-and-reserve

Pima, this article addresses your IRR question.

I think our biggest threat right now is NOT the cuts, but rather, the uncertainty and timing over the cuts. The uncertainty is very real and not speculative and messes up plans for many applicants (and Cadet Command planners).

 

[bruno]

I don't think this is correct. Higher budget cuts will translate directly into fewer AD slots for ROTC. The budget cuts of the 1990s hit the reserves and NG just as hard: http://articles.chicagotribune.com/...tive-duty-reserve-personnel-guard-and-reserve

Pima, this article addresses your IRR question.

I think our biggest threat right now is NOT the cuts, but rather, the uncertainty and timing over the cuts. The uncertainty is very real and not speculative and messes up plans for many applicants (and Cadet Command planners).

"This" shouldn't mess up anybody's plans. There is no "this". There is only speculation by people with NO information beyond the budget will likely be cut.

According to a survey put out by the American Bar Association a month ago, only 62% of the Law School graduates from last year are working in jobs that require a law license- the lowest ever. Is the guidance that you give that too much uncertainty and the field is overcrowded so don't become a Lawyer? I doubt it. The guidance that you should be giving is- work as hard as you can because the state of the economy and the profession is out of your control, but assume that they will be increasingly selective, so you have the most options by doing the absolute best that you can.

In my opinion this entire thread is a huge disservice to prospective ROTC Cadets. There has been NOTHING announced about what will be cut or how. There is NO REASON to expect that the current pathways to a commission will not continue to be open although it is reasonable to expect that they will be more competitive. Beyond that- Who knows? - and nobody on this forum is privy to that information.

If you really were interested in debating how to get the most cost out of the officer procurement establishment- then what you should be looking at is the >$425k tag that gets floated around for the Service Academies to produce a Lieutenant/Ensign- roughly 3x what a ROTC scholarship recipient costs and far more than that for an OCS grad. That "Big Check" that some parents love to post about get presented at the HS awards ceremony is also a big target, and in a military in which the Sec Def has concerns about the gap between civil society and the military, they are NOT going to massively zero out their presence on civilian campuses as sources for new officers. So perhaps- if you are determined to speculate and deal in rumor- lets debate that.

Alternatively- my personal opinion is that it's time to stop floating guesses and telling prospective Cadets that their plans are "messed up". As long as you understand that nothing is locked in concrete and as in every entering year (other than 2007- 2009), the process will be very competitive and there are no guarantees that you will receive a scholarship to the school of your choice or to any school at all, nothing should be messed up and you are making a mistake if you are not pursuing something because budget cuts may affect ROTC in some unspecified way.

 

[Just_A_Mom]

Bruno = truth.

The fact is both ROTC and the SA's bloated with current two wars. In 2003 each SA increased their strength by 400.
5 years ago every qualified AROTC cadet who wanted AD got it. This was an anomaly. To say now that one should not join AROTC because they might get Reserves is a disservice. This was nearly always the case and ROTC is just re-centering back to *normal*.

patentesq - that 20 year old article has nothing to do with ROTC or the current budget situation. Bruno is correct - you and PIMA are feeding fears. If you are worried about an 18 year old's *life plan* being messed up - please just stop!!! This is nothing but self-serving nonsense.

 

[LineInTheSand]

I would be hesitant to point at anyone's comments as "self-serving nonsense". When that finger comes out, no tell where it will point....

 

[patentesq]

In my opinion this entire thread is a huge disservice to prospective ROTC Cadets. There has been NOTHING announced about what will be cut or how. There is NO REASON to expect that the current pathways to a commission will not continue to be open although it is reasonable to expect that they will be more competitive. Beyond that- Who knows? - and nobody on this forum is privy to that information.

bruno and JAM, trying to squelch this discussion is irresponsible. Candidates absolutely need to know the headwinds they are facing and how best to navigate through that environment. Only if candidates know what the risks are can they effectively formulate plans and backup plans. After all, life is ALL about navigating through risks. Those who do not know what the risks are and proactively deal with them end up getting slammed.

Neither I nor Pima have EVER advised ANYONE not to become an officer, and I do not understand why you equate discussions about the budgetary environment as "don't even bother" advice. Wrong. I certainly would not advise someone to reject the idea of becoming a lawyer simply because the economy is down, so I'm not sure where that's coming from. Instead, my approach to advising students thinking about law school is this: "Here are your challenges -- now, here's how to overcome them." When they do become lawyers, they will learn what "thinking like a lawyer" really means -- identifying the risks ahead and then formulating a plan to navigate through those risks.

The advice that ROTC candidates should do the best they can academically, etc. is advice that will ALWAYS be given in any environment, in good times and in bad. But not alerting users that there are challenges ahead and here's how best to deal with those challenges denies the users of probably the most important value that SAF brings to its users. This is NOT a "cheerleading" website -- it is an INFORMATION website. I don't think ANYONE needs SAF to hear that they should try to get the highest grades possible and do the best they can. Maybe I'm mistaken, but I think every candidate knows this already!!

The reason folks need information about the developing ROTC landscape is because it will impact their major strategic decisions, such as deciding which schools to put on their ROTC application list, or whether to pursue the SMP program or hold out hopes for a 3-year scholarship at a campus that happened to hand out many last year. Users should NOT be denied this information simply because those who control access to the information are afraid that folks will be spooked by it.

Anyone who intentionally tries to deny users access to information is doing the members of SAF a huge disservice.

It is, however, perfectly legitimate to advise folks -- as I and Pima have done (and indeed, as bruno and JAM have done) -- that nothing is set in stone, things haven't happened yet, things can turn on a dime.

Of course, the users are more than smart enough to wholly reject -- for themselves -- anything that patentesq or anyone else says about what they think will be the challenges in the upcoming year.

JAM, I understand that you are concerned that users will not be able to handle the information and will get spooked because challenges appear on the forum. But I think it can be equally harmful to sugar-coat things and say things like "IRR has ZERO to do with budget cuts", because that is not how it has been handled historically.

The truth is that all views should be allowed to be presented, so long as it is done in a courteous, non-slanderous way. You will note that I did not suggest that your statement about IRR was inappropriate. I just challenged the accuracy of the information of your thesis statement, based on historical precedent. Of course, your response that the historical evidence is "old" is a perfectly legitimate response that users can digest as they see fit. As I have previously said in this thread, the 1990's "Peace Dividend" was far different than the one we are currently facing -- in 1990, there were fewer threats to US national security than there are now.

If someone really believes that we are not facing budgetary problems in this country, and that DoD will have to deal with them, then they should post and say so. But nothing should be squelched. In my mind, the discussion really should be "Here are the likely challenges ahead -- now, here's how to deal with them."

 

[LineInTheSand]

Each branch is already cutting members (call it what you will), it's not a huge leap to suggest that ROTC will be effected....the service academies already have been....in fact ROTC has too, just not sure to what extent.

 

[Pima]

bruno and JAM, trying to squelch this discussion is irresponsible. Candidates absolutely need to know the headwinds they are facing and how best to navigate through that environment. Only if candidates know what the risks are can they effectively formulate plans and backup plans. After all, life is ALL about navigating through risks. Those who do not know what the risks are and proactively deal with them end up getting slammed.

Neither I nor Pima have EVER advised ANYONE not to become an officer, and I do not understand why you equate discussions about the budgetary environment as "don't even bother" advice. Wrong. I certainly would not advise someone to reject the idea of becoming a lawyer simply because the economy is down, so I'm not sure where that's coming from. Instead, my approach to advising students thinking about law school is this: "Here are your challenges -- now, here's how to overcome them." When they do become lawyers, they will learn what "thinking like a lawyer" really means -- identifying the risks ahead and then formulating a plan to navigate through those risks.

I agree. My intentions were never to advise anyone to not go ROTC. My intentions were to say what was in yrs past for ROTC should be accepted as "was". I will not sugar coat.

My intention was to highlight how the DOD budget may impact the ROTC scholarship candidate.

 

[bruno]

Because that's not what's happening here. All any of us know now is that "something will get reduced". PERIOD.

I don't really know why you are insisting that this is an issue- IT IS NOT. It may become one, but at this point virtually ANYTHING might happen that involves Government dollars. Who will be affected and how? NOBODY has a clue and the 20 year old past is not the future. You might as well be counselling people to live in a bunker because of the chance of falling space junk. We all know it is there, but that's not really adding much to the things they should be doing to prepare for the future. What headwinds are you telling them to expect? That the Army may shrink ?( but by how much and who?Lieutenants? PFCs Captains. )? That there may be less ROTC Scholarships (or there may not). That there will be: (take your pick: new Helicopters/ no new helicopters etc...)?

This entire thread is just idle speculation - based on neither educated calculations nor inside information. Let's sum up what everyone knows: (0).
Everything else is just a guess and you are guessing on the horserace without even having a tip sheet. So I fail to see what value you believe you are imparting. How does one plan when what they know is: "the future will probably somehow be different?" When the DoD gets guidance by service and passes out their guidnance down to the military departments on how much they will likely be cut - Then you actually have something to talk about- until then it's just Chicken little and you are not preparing anyone for anything.
Advice for bad economic weather would be along the lines of : "Don't major in Liberal Arts: the chances of you getting a job are demonstrably lower than if you are an engineer. " For that I can show statistics and tell them how much more they will make for a starting salary, and what the chances of being hired are compared to a LA major- and they will at least understand the concrete issues and be able to make concrete adjustments. What do you have with this guidance that you would like them to adjust here? NADA becasue we don't know what is going to happen unless what you are telling them is: Don't go into the Army. Now that would be truly unfortunate because it would be REALLY BAD ADVICE based on what anyone knows so far.

I'm not playing anymore- you guys can bay at the moon all you want going forward. That's not squelching the discussion- it is articulating a point of view that says this is all air with no substance. My advice to any readers on here is to understand that the US Army is not going out of business- and how it will be affected by the overall Government budget crisis is absolutely unclear as of 11/29/11, so how it will affect you is equally unclear if at all unless you are a marginal candidate, at which point you should expect that things will be more selective.

I think our biggest threat right now is NOT the cuts, but rather, the uncertainty and timing over the cuts. The uncertainty is very real and not speculative and messes up plans for many applicants

bruno and JAM, trying to squelch this discussion is irresponsible. Candidates absolutely need to know the headwinds they are facing and how best to navigate through that environment. Only if candidates know what the risks are can they effectively formulate plans and backup plans. After all, life is ALL about navigating through risks. Those who do not know what the risks are and proactively deal with them end up getting slammed.

If someone really believes that we are not facing budgetary problems in this country, and that DoD will have to deal with them, then they should post and say so. But nothing should be squelched. In my mind, the discussion really should be "Here are the likely challenges ahead -- now, here's how to deal with them."

 

[Pima]

When did anyone state the Army is going out of business?

Nobody has stated that IMPO. What posters are stating is they were already constricting regarding scholarships, and we are acknowledging that fewer scholarships were offered FY2011 compared to FY2010, and expect fewer for FY2012.

The sky isn't falling. However, ROTC scholarships before this hit were already very competitive.

That is all I am saying. I am saying we can assume with cuts for the DOD it is not going to be easier for a HS student TY if ROTC scholarship is the way you expect to pay for that college education.