It all depends, I found out that on my MOC's slate I was ranked #9. I ended up finding out on my visit after I received my LOE that West Point often re-ranks the slate BUT they leave the primary and the alternate untouched. You have to remember that West Point has all of the information about you and the MOC does not. So in reality I was bumped up to #3 behind the two, and I ended up #2 because one was medically disqualified. If West Point wants you they'll shuffle the cards around to get you there. I am currently on the NWL (officially, not just based on the 3Q letter) and have been told that I should be "pretty comfortable" with my spot. I'm not sure if you know how the NWL works but the top 150 have to be offered appointments, and then they are allowed to jump around to fill spots (diversity/females/etc...).