Drop in SA Applications

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DutchAmerican

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Similar thread on the USAFA pages. There appears to have been a pretty major drop in applications for the class of 2026 for the Service Academies.

USNA 2026 full stats have not been released yet, but found the following for the past couple of years for total applications:

2023: 16,332
2024: 15,699
2025: 16,265
2026: 12,927

A 20.6% decrease in applications from 2025 to 2026. 3.6% increase from 2024 to 2025

Another interesting difference between 2025 and 2026 is the drop in varsity athletes (91% vs 84%) ~91% seems to have been the norm in the past.

It will be interesting to see if Maverick will boost the applications back to normal levels
 
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DutchAmerican said:
Similar thread on the USAFA pages. There appears to have been a pretty major drop in applications for the class of 2026 for the Service Academies.

USNA 2026 full stats have not been released yet, but found the following for the past couple of years for total applications:

2023: 16,332
2024: 15,699
2025: 16,265
2026: 12,927

A 20.6% decrease in applications from 2025 to 2026. 3.6% increase from 2024 to 2025

Another interesting difference between 2025 and 2026 is the drop in recruited varsity athletes (91% vs 84%) ~91% seems to have been the norm in the past.

It will be interesting to see if Maverick will boost the applications back to normal levels
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You reposted this in a new thread, so I will ask the same question here.

What are you talking about? Drop in recruited athletes? You mean a drop in the number of admitted students who were varsity athletes in high school? There is a big difference between being a varsity athlete in high school and a recruited athlete at a Division 1 school.

Assuming you are referring to a drop in admitted kids who were varsity athletes in high school, it probably has everything to do with two lost seasons of many sports due to Covid.
 
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I wonder if they started counting applications differently, I remember there used to be some controvsery about how Admissions was counting anyone who signed up for their email list as an applicant in order to deflate the admissions rate. As for athletes, a lot of people were forced to stop playing sports during the pandemic lockdowns unfortunately so I would think that is the reason.
 
It’s interesting, for sure. I’ll be curious to hear further analysis on it. For the east coast and many other areas these kids lost 2 years of sports, volunteer activities, travel, socialization and incremental freedoms and rights of passage. International tension and uncertainty and overall trust and moral seems would have an impact.
 
Korab said:
You reposted this in a new thread, so I will ask the same question here.

What are you talking about? Drop in recruited athletes? You mean a drop in the number of admitted students who were varsity athletes in high school? There is a big difference between being a varsity athlete in high school and a recruited athlete at a Division 1 school.

Assuming you are referring to a drop in admitted kids who were varsity athletes in high school, it probably has everything to do with two lost seasons of many sports due to Covid.
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@Korab updated to reflect the intent about the athletes.
 
Yup. My son didn't get to do half of his Jr. year seasons, and all of his Sr. year ones. So, he went from the top distance kid in the school to way out of running shape. BUT .... he was still a varsity athlete on his application, so not sure how that works?? He wasn't recruited as a result, and ended up being a college re-applicant. I'm sure there are many other kids that were in the same boat.
 
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Covid knocked it down this year.

Recession and the disdain for Putin will make it go up to normal range next year.
.
 
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Kierkegaard said:
I wonder if they started counting applications differently,
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Nope -- Admissions reported early in the cycle that applications were down significantly at all Service Academies,
In discussion, no one seemed to have any solid explanation.. certainly some fall out from COVID , but I think Service Academies were down further than other comparable schools. One suggestion is that kids are wanting to stay closer to home.
 
Old Navy BGO said:
Nope -- Admissions reported early in the cycle that applications were down significantly at all Service Academies,
In discussion, no one seemed to have any solid explanation.. certainly some fall out from COVID , but I think Service Academies were down further than other comparable schools. One suggestion is that kids are wanting to stay closer to home.
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closer to home?

This makes a lot of sense. Kids will likely not see distance as a problem it’s certainly more likely P and GP would feel more comfortable if DC was closer to home.

i certainly would if they were at a civilian school. Not so much at a SA

We do live in uncertain times.

I wonder if local community colleges are seeing a significant uptake in admissions.
 
They had a waiver for testing for c/o '26 if you could prove that you signed up for one, but it got cancelled. They did NOT require them for c/o '25 (my son's first attempt). Since my kid had taken the SAT right before COVID hit, and then in a small window in the middle of the pandemic, he had to include them for his '26 application.
 
IronmanDaremo said:
They had a waiver for testing for c/o '26 if you could prove that you signed up for one, but it got cancelled. They did NOT require them for c/o '25 (my son's first attempt). Since my kid had taken the SAT right before COVID hit, and then in a small window in the middle of the pandemic, he had to include them for his '26 application
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USNA was not "test optional" at any time, but rather "test flexible", i.e. a Candidate would not be rejected if they were unable to sign up and take the test due to COVID restrictions. Circumstances varied around the country -- but I don't think it even required a showing that someone had signed up and couldn't take. I would expect that USNA was pretty well informed about where access to testing was restricted.
 
Understood. As a BGO, you certainly have way more insight than me.

But I do specifically remember my son showing me something that said they did not have to submit scores if they were unable to take them for '26, and should provide documentation accordingly. But if they took them, they had to submit them.

Unfortunately, I do not have that communication anymore, so it is a "weak argument" on my side.
 
IronmanDaremo said:
did not have to submit scores if they were unable to take them for '26
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this is correct. the idea was that candidates would not be punished if they were unable to take the test, for reason beyond their control. did some candidates take advantage of this? yes. i interviewed several of them.

in terms of lower numbers of applicants this year, i think you need to look more broadly for reasons. as an example, i think i read that the Army is only at 40% of it's recruiting goal for the year. lots of possible reason are being argued: COVID, mandatory vaccines, very public focus on woke policies vs warfighting and lethality, and on and on and on. also, the experiences of fleet sailors the past few years has been brutal - 8 month or longer cruises with zero port calls etc. makes it very hard for them to strongly recommend the military to younger friends and relatives..... not like the old days

one of the main inspirations of young people to join our military is family members, primarily parents, who served and later encourage their kids to also serve. many, many of them are now telling their kids, 'don't do it'.

it feels like we're going through a bad stretch, kinda like the late 70s

we shall see
 
StarSpangled2023 said:
It’s interesting, for sure. I’ll be curious to hear further analysis on it. For the east coast and many other areas these kids lost 2 years of sports, volunteer activities, travel, socialization and incremental freedoms and rights of passage. International tension and uncertainty and overall trust and moral seems would have an impact.
Click to expand...
We are in NYC and were under COVID restrictions for almost a 1 1/2 years and even when it was decided to reopen , inevitably covid cases would increase and we would be shut down again . DD had her swim season , swim championships (local and state ) cancelled and her varsity track season cancelled . Gyms were closed and we don’t have a big backyard or anything , so she was trying to workout in her small bedroom or go for runs without getting hit by a car, bus or bicyclist . Zoom classes in my opinion , are not the same as in class instruction. Sure her GPA was good, but I’m not sure how much she retained . Socialization was really important to her , she missed her friends and extended family . Many posts about increased obesity and I have an older DD who was not the “jock” her younger siblings were , she put on an incredible amount of weight during covid that she is still trying to get a handle on .
 
Is there any other time period where applications dropped significantly? That would help understand possible causes. Outside of any historical precedent, I would suspect it is a perfect storm of apathy caused by COVID induced remote learning, erosion of respect for the military and country, and lack of respect for the current leadership (Afghanistan withdrawal and treatment of the active duty over the vaccine). That's my sense talking to some kids who had expressed interest in the past but didn't actually apply.
 
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A6E Dad said:
this is correct. the idea was that candidates would not be punished if they were unable to take the test, for reason beyond their control. did some candidates take advantage of this? yes. i interviewed several of them.

in terms of lower numbers of applicants this year, i think you need to look more broadly for reasons. as an example, i think i read that the Army is only at 40% of it's recruiting goal for the year. lots of possible reason are being argued: COVID, mandatory vaccines, very public focus on woke policies vs warfighting and lethality, and on and on and on. also, the experiences of fleet sailors the past few years has been brutal - 8 month or longer cruises with zero port calls etc. makes it very hard for them to strongly recommend the military to younger friends and relatives..... not like the old days

one of the main inspirations of young people to join our military is family members, primarily parents, who served and later encourage their kids to also serve. many, many of them are now telling their kids, 'don't do it'.

it feels like we're going through a bad stretch, kinda like the late 70s

we shall see
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We are a military family , mostly enlisted . DD’s cousin joined the Navy right out of high school (3rd generation). He was assigned to the USS George Washington and has since left active duty and is now reserves . I think you can guess the conversations he had with his younger cousins . DD’s dad was also enlisted (USMC Iraq) and he was not wholly enthusiastic when DD shared with him that she wanted a military career. He did insist that if she did , she would attend college on ROTC or apply to a SA.
 
Huursoldaat said:
Is there any other time period where applications dropped significantly? That would help understand possible causes. Outside of any historical precedent, I would suspect it is a perfect storm of apathy caused by COVID induced remote learning, erosion of respect for the military and country, and lack of respect for the current leadership (Afghanistan withdrawal and treatment of the active duty over the vaccine).
Click to expand...
I fully expect that USNA (and other Service Academies ) are evaluating and trying to identify reasons and a plan of action to get numbers up. While there is no shortage of qualified applicants even with the decrease (and in some cases the Candidates I have seen are even more motivated), one of the measures that "elite schools" use to measure success, prestige and competitiveness is application numbers. I suspect that there are consultants who are a lot smarter than I am (or at least think they are !) getting set to make good money on studying and evaluating this issue. Personally, I think all the factors that Huursoldaat mentioned come into play , along with others. From the BGO perspective, the mere fact that we haven't been able to get into schools and talk with students or guidance counselors hurts.
 
I really do think Covid cut down the number. 2025 would’ve opened their apps before Covid really started, whereas 2026 had already been through the major shutdowns and was at the peak of the Delta variant and the world was a different place. I think 2027 will spike back up. Maybe not where we were before, but I think we will see a strong increase.

What do I know though. I’m just a dad. ;-)
 
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