Have the majority already been appointed?

Ok so I guess he went through admission boats and now he's waiting for office of admission. Is this good or bad??


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Ok so I guess he went through admission boats and now he's waiting for office of admission. Is this good or bad??

No one can predict; but for now, I would assume he is OK if this is where he is.

Worst case scenario for now: He's in the National Pool waiting to see how slotting plays out.

Best case scenario: He's waiting for Admissions to get information on the last of the qualified applicants on his slate from the Admissions Board (if he is on an equal and competitive nomination slate). Things can move slowly - particularly if someone on his slate is a college re-applicant.
 
There are of course exceptions to everything; and as you point out, your file - as a college re-applicant needing to submit first semester grades - was not complete until early January.

When I was a BGO in MD for two consecutive candidate cycles, they were figuring out slates into late March/early April. I had close ties to the RD and other Admissions Officers who I communicated with on a consistent basis. I don't think your assumption is correct, specifically if there are 70 college candidates who are typically appointed, that potentially would be 70 slates undecided -- that is 16%. Furthermore, Admissions has to decide which NAPSTERs would win slates vs. getting SECNAV nominations....the process of deciding slates isn't easy and quick. This is just 2 examples...Presidential Nominations, LOA recipients, etc. I doubt in one month this has somewhat been figured out, given it wasn't 3-4 years ago.

REGARDLESS, candidates and parents should not worry about this. Sit back and relax, honestly! YOU CAN'T CONTROL THE PROCESS FORWARD!!! Why fret? It is what it is. If you put 110% effort into what you have done for your application, then you should feel satisfied and gave it your all.
 
When I was a BGO in MD for two consecutive candidate cycles, they were figuring out slates into late March/early April. I had close ties to the RD and other Admissions Officers who I communicated with on a consistent basis. I don't think your assumption is correct, specifically if there are 70 college candidates who are typically appointed, that potentially would be 70 slates undecided -- that is 16%. Furthermore, Admissions has to decide which NAPSTERs would win slates vs. getting SECNAV nominations....the process of deciding slates isn't easy and quick. This is just 2 examples...Presidential Nominations, LOA recipients, etc. I doubt in one month this has somewhat been figured out, given it wasn't 3-4 years ago.

REGARDLESS, candidate and parents should not worry about this. Sit back and relax, honestly! YOU CAN'T CONTROL THE PROCESS FORWARD!!! Why fret? It is what it is.

I agree with some of what you are saying; and Admissions is certainly still figuring out some slates for various reasons (not all candidates have been through the qualification process, etc..) before they go to the National Pool to finish out.

Also, I think we do need to understand that probably a significant majority of the posters and stalkers on this forum are high school candidate-related; and many of them do not realize that a substantial percentage of appointments do in fact go to qualified candidates that come from other non-high school slates and pools (NAPS, Foundation, Fleet, etc.)

I also have worked closely with Admissions in more ways than one; and I think you will agree that a very significant number of appointment offers have already gone out but that there are more to come.

One thing we totally agree on is that there is nothing anyone can do at this point to affect the process.
 
Original Assumption:
A pretty safe assumption is that candidates who had everything completed and in by January 1, 2015 and have not received an offer of appointment as of this date are now dealing either with the National Pool or have already been deemed tentatively unqualified for appointment.

My point is....this isn't a safe assumption.
The "safe" assumption is that some of the appointments have been offered and there are some still to be offered. Nothing more or less. Who knows how many slates Admissions has or hasn't gotten to? I certainly don't know, nor do I know how many offers have already been made.
 
Ok so I guess he went through admission boats and now he's waiting for office of admission. Is this good or bad??
Best case scenario: He's waiting for Admissions to get information on the last of the qualified applicants on his slate from the Admissions Board (if he is on an equal and competitive nomination slate). Things can move slowly - particularly if someone on his slate is a college re-applicant.

What defines a slate anyway? Is that just number per district?
 
My point is....this isn't a safe assumption.
The "safe" assumption is that some of the appointments have been offered and there are some still to be offered. Nothing more or less. Who knows how many slates Admissions has or hasn't gotten to? I certainly don't know, nor do I know how many offers have already been made.

Some disagreement; but you make a valid point in that neither of us actually knows the true percentage already offered.

Let's just leave it at that.
 
I am happy to leave it at reasonable and safe assumptions...which is none of us really know how many offers of appointment have been made or how many slates have or haven't been decided.
 
If one makes it to the National Pool, is that where we see that one in two (assuming one agrees this is roughly the breakdown) chance of an appointment?
 
I am not sure if I did my math correct, but I think it is about 8% for a MOC-nominated candidates and 2% for other nominations.
FQ Candidates = ~3,200
Offers = 1,400
# of MOC, Pres, SECNAV, and others = ~950
Leftover = 250
National Pool Size = 2,250 (from #FQ-950)
% in national pool = 250/2,250
National pool must come from 75% of MOC alternates and others is 25%, so multiply (% in national pool by either .75 or .25).
I think this might make sense, but I am NOT a math major.
 
I am not sure if I did my math correct, but I think it is about 8% for a MOC-nominated candidates and 2% for other nominations.
FQ Candidates = ~3,200
Offers = 1,400
# of MOC, Pres, SECNAV, and others = ~950
Leftover = 250
National Pool Size = 2,250 (from #FQ-950)
% in national pool = 250/2,250
National pool must come from 75% of MOC alternates and others is 25%, so multiply (% in national pool by either .75 or .25).
I think this might make sense, but I am NOT a math major.
Interesting. So assuming they didn't get bounced onto the TWE club, where does the average applicant stand?
 
Quick question usnabgo08, If there are 1400 offers, and about 950 taken up by MOC, Pres, SECNAV and others, wouldn't left over be 450 vs 250 or am I missing something in your analysis? Not trying to be difficult, I'm just confused.
 
Agreed, I had run the same math, and figured about 450 from the National Pool. My question is, and from what I have heard those in the National Pool are ranked and evaluated based solely on WCS, where are those 450 offers charged? Or are the appointments made from the National Pool not charged to a nominating source?
 
usnabgo08:

Thought you might be interested in this recent posting regarding information actually put out by RD Region 3 late last year (our region and I can verify that it was put out by the RD as quoted):

"Back around Christmas, our RD (region 3) sent out an email about the approaching deadline that included several paragraphs. I will copy and paste one of the paragraphs dealing with this topic:

4)NOTIFICATIONS: The majority of our notifications (both positive and negative) will be mailed to you in early March. I cannot tell you what the answer is before the official notification is sent so please do not even ask. The notification will be mailed to the address you entered in our system when you started your application. Take a minute to log in to your page and verify that all of the information in the “Candidate Data” box is up to date. You can edit it by clicking the “edit” button."
 
Update to the previous numbers....200 should of been taken out (difference between class size -- 1200 and offers -- 1400) of the overall national pool since they declined. The number of the class size doesn't change -- ~1200 (~950 of which do not come from national pool)
FQ Candidates = ~3,200
Offers = 1,400
# of MOC, Pres, SECNAV, and others = ~950
Leftover = 250
National Pool Size = 2,050 (from #FQ-950) - 200 (who declined)
% in national pool = 250/2,050
National pool must come from 75% of MOC alternates and others is 25%, so multiply (% in national pool by either .75 or .25).

9% for a MOC-nominated candidates and 3% for other nominations.

bubalma,
Well, maybe there is hope for a majority of candidates in the coming days -- either way. I guess we will know shortly.
 
Update to the previous numbers....200 should of been taken out (difference between class size -- 1200 and offers -- 1400) of the overall national pool since they declined. The number of the class size doesn't change -- ~1200 (~950 of which do not come from national pool)

...and on a positive note, if 250 come from national pool and about 10% participate here.... then 25 "still in the game" here will get national pool appointments, assuming they haven't gone out yet.
Is my crazy mom math right? Bottom line is wait, have plan B&C ready, post crazy mom math here and act normal at home.
 
...and on a positive note, if 250 come from national pool and about 10% participate here.... then 25 "still in the game" here will get national pool appointments, assuming they haven't gone out yet.
Is my crazy mom math right? Bottom line is wait, have plan B&C ready, post crazy mom math here and act normal at home.

We will keep your "crazy mom math" a secret and keep our collective fingers crossed for all those waiting on the BFE!
 
would it be too crazy of an idea to think that some have not been reviewed by the Board yet.
 
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