Historical % Acceptance Rate

So from the stats that parent posted, if we are 3Q'd with one (or more) nomination(s), do we fit in that group of the 2,000-ish "qualified"? My question is, only half of those kids will get appointed, but how any of the rest are offered Prep School or Falcon scholarships? And about what percentage of wait listed candidates eventually get accepted (in the past, of course- I understand the stats change every year)? From the forum, it is apparent that many applicants apply and get accepted to multiple SA's so I would imagine several of the initial appointees turn down the offer, is that correct?
It's getting really hard not to over analyze things at this point. I'm so sick of hearing crickets over here, and analyzing statistics oddly provides me some comfort, haha. We all do what what we can to cope.
 
Guys I know it's a nerve wracking time for you but you're going to worry yourself sick. You have to realize that there are things that are out of your control and worrying about those things will give you nothing but ulcers and grey hair at an early age!:eek:

Now I know that is easier said than done because of the highly competitive and intelligent people the SA attracts only make them want to gather every bit of data but on some topics it's not worth the headache.

It's your senior year of high school! :cool: Enjoy life but don't anything stupid to ruin your chances! You've put forth the best application you can at this point the rest is in the SA's hands. You don't want to look back at your senior year and all you remember is how you trolled this forum everyday!;)
 
Haha, Boozebin, you sound just like my mom. She tells me the same thing and tells me I am going to end up with an ulcer. Ugh, I know everyone keeps saying to relax, but it's so hard right now, what with trying to combat senioritis and finish strong, fill out a million college and scholarship applications, and waiting while your life's dream rests in the hands of an admissions board that looks at you as a number.
Sorry, needed to vent there. Despite how it appears, though, I am personally enjoying life while I wait, learning new things, achieving as much as possible, and even having fun on occasion ;)
It is great to have the people here on the forum for support though. Lots of my peers who are not trying for military ambitions don't understand what's going on right now, but the people here do and that's awesome!
 
I agree baileybd! It is hard for you guys going through it and hard for us as parents to watch! My DS is going through many if the same feelings you are because nobody else in his school is going this route and they don't "get it". He has almost felt distant from his friends because he is just in a different place than they are right now. Hang in there the wait is tortuorus, but I feel he has grown through the process and even if the answer is no, he is a better person for it. Don't get me wrong, I pray every day that he gets it!
 
Agreed, nukepharm,
I am learning a lot through this process as well. Many, many lessons in patience, as well as the necessity of turning to things other than external circumstances for my own personal peace and fulfillment.
Best of luck to your DS. Praying for peace and good news to all on this forum!
 
prep school slots are totally, 100% separate and different. It's not: Take the top 1200 and give appointments; and #1201 and on get prep school slots.

It's possible, and quite normal, for the prep school offer to go to someone who wasn't even in those 2000-2500 "3Q Qualified" individuals. Remember; the purpose of the prep school is to get an individual who has an area that makes them NOT Qualified (Usually academic); however, the REST of their application is outstanding and the academy sees great promise and potential. In other words, that individual, if they WERE Qualified, probably would have received an appointment. But because they had a 24 ACT; or because their MATH Classes were all "C's" and "D's", they weren't qualified.

I won't get into specifics. That's up to the academy to determine the "WHOLE PERSON" on an individual basis. I simply wanted to say that there is nothing in common with the APPOINTMENT selection and the PREP SCHOOL selection. Don't look at the numbers, lists, percentages, etc. and try and make them the same. It doesn't work. 2 totally different processes. Just like the academy and ROTC are not the same.
 
Haha, Boozebin, you sound just like my mom. She tells me the same thing and tells me I am going to end up with an ulcer. Ugh, I know everyone keeps saying to relax, but it's so hard right now, what with trying to combat senioritis and finish strong, fill out a million college and scholarship applications, and waiting while your life's dream rests in the hands of an admissions board that looks at you as a number.
Sorry, needed to vent there. Despite how it appears, though, I am personally enjoying life while I wait, learning new things, achieving as much as possible, and even having fun on occasion ;)
It
 
I agree Baileydb...I find solace in this forum and look forward to reading new messages each day. I have learned so much from the many experienced staff, alum, and parents on this site. I don't let my DS know how much I stalk this page, so, you and I are in the same boat. I am enjoying the excitement of the "what if" as a proud mother who's son has made it this far! Since you were talking numbers, how many cadets at permitted at the Academy in total? Has anyone posted how many would be accepted for 2019?
 
Mike, One more question, if I may...looking at the USAFA quick fact sheet http://www.usafa.af.mil/information/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=21371 it shows 9706 applicants, 2,277 Qualified and 1190 Appointed. I am guessing this means D is one of the (2,277) qualified I know this is for 2014 but stay with me. So her chances are close to 50% to gain an appointment. Or a 50/50 chance. I hope this is right. Again I know there are no guarantees. Just a nerve racking time, waiting, waiting, waiting. Thanks again for all of your insight and help.
You can run numbers and try to guess percentages all day every day but the fact remains that you will never be able to crack the admissions code - all this anxiety is just par for the course and tradition. You will find out when they decide to tell you and that is the most honest truth there is - there is no secret formula and you will drive yourself absolutely mad if you do not walk away and just have faith - if you made it this far you are doing something right. My son did not find out until March 20th last year and I would have lost my mind if I did not stop asking the how and why of it all - it just is.
 
Those numbers are generally provided "After" the fact. There's also some other considerations when looking at those numbers. In this case, when they same "2,277 QUALIFIED"; that includes only individuals that can receive an appointment. Meaning, it included individuals who also have nominations. As you all know, no matter how good your application is, you can't receive an appointment without having a nomination. So the 2,277 is the final pool of individuals. But it's not uncommon that there are a lot of "3Q" individuals who didn't receive a nomination, and thus aren't part of that 2,277 number. Just like it's very common for individuals to receive nominations, but the aren't qualified and aren't in that pool.

But assuming you applicant has a nomination and is "3Q" as discussed here, then yes, in theory you would have close to a 50/50 chance. You also need to remember that in this example of 2,277 qualified, throughout the process, that number WAS HIGHER. Between the beginning of the process and the end (June), there will be quite a few individuals who will WITHDRAW from the selection pool. They received offers from other schools, had a change of heart, etc. One thing so many people (Especially on a forum where there's MORE interest in the academy), NOT EVERYONE has the academy as their #1 choice. You hear how people mention on the forum to "Have a Backup" school that you're applying to. Probably 50% or more of the original 9706 applicants that you show, don't want the academy as their #1 choice. The academy is simply another school they are applying to. Possibly their #2 or #3 choice. Those who visit this forum are obviously more interested in the academies. It's probably their #1 choice for college. But think about it; 1% of the 9706 would be 97 people. Are there 97 ACTIVE 2019 applicants on this forum???? No. So that means that MORE than 99% of all academy applicants aren't on this or similar forums. They aren't as GUNG-HO about the academy as you all are here. And for most of them, the academy isn't their first choice.

That's also why the percentage of appointments to those on this forum is obviously pretty high.You have a higher interest in the academies. You are receiving valuable information about applying to the academy that is IMPOSSIBLE to get outside of this forum. Even with some ALO's who are head and shoulders above others; (Like Flieger - Steve), he can only affect a small number of applicants vs this forum. I know a LOT of ALO's and LOD's. Believe it or not, MOST of them don't even know about this forum. And the majority that do know about it, aren't involved with it and don't use it as a tool. (Personally, I think it threatens their EGO, that there's a source of information that is better than them).

Anyway; the point being, in November, December, January, .... April, that 2,277 number is probably much higher. But because of other offers from schools and change of mind, many applicants withdraw from the application process. Remember; the academy is NOT the #1 choice of schools from the MAJORITY of those 9706 applicants. It is safe to say it probably is of the 2,277. So looking back, if you received one of the 1190 appointments, you could say you were in the top 50% of qualified candidates. But at the TIME of the actual selection, there could have easily been 3,000-5,000 qualified applicants. Some become UN- Qualifed. Some didn't receive a nomination. Some withdrew from the process. Of my original slate of candidates, I've had 4 of them WITHDRAW from the process already. 2 of them I could almost guarantee would have been in the top 4-5 for receiving an appointment. So take those numbers with a grain of salt, and remember that they are figured AFTER the fact. Those numbers aren't the same in January.
 
My child was one of those that withdrew their packet @ the end of January and he had 4 nominations (Pres and 3 MoCs). He chose to take the AFROTC and merit scholarship from his number 1 civilian college. So it does happen as Mike just explained.
 
Those numbers are generally provided "After" the fact. There's also some other considerations when looking at those numbers. In this case, when they same "2,277 QUALIFIED"; that includes only individuals that can receive an appointment. Meaning, it included individuals who also have nominations. As you all know, no matter how good your application is, you can't receive an appointment without having a nomination. So the 2,277 is the final pool of individuals. But it's not uncommon that there are a lot of "3Q" individuals who didn't receive a nomination, and thus aren't part of that 2,277 number. Just like it's very common for individuals to receive nominations, but the aren't qualified and aren't in that pool.

But assuming you applicant has a nomination and is "3Q" as discussed here, then yes, in theory you would have close to a 50/50 chance. You also need to remember that in this example of 2,277 qualified, throughout the process, that number WAS HIGHER. Between the beginning of the process and the end (June), there will be quite a few individuals who will WITHDRAW from the selection pool. They received offers from other schools, had a change of heart, etc. One thing so many people (Especially on a forum where there's MORE interest in the academy), NOT EVERYONE has the academy as their #1 choice. You hear how people mention on the forum to "Have a Backup" school that you're applying to. Probably 50% or more of the original 9706 applicants that you show, don't want the academy as their #1 choice. The academy is simply another school they are applying to. Possibly their #2 or #3 choice. Those who visit this forum are obviously more interested in the academies. It's probably their #1 choice for college. But think about it; 1% of the 9706 would be 97 people. Are there 97 ACTIVE 2019 applicants on this forum???? No. So that means that MORE than 99% of all academy applicants aren't on this or similar forums. They aren't as GUNG-HO about the academy as you all are here. And for most of them, the academy isn't their first choice.

That's also why the percentage of appointments to those on this forum is obviously pretty high.You have a higher interest in the academies. You are receiving valuable information about applying to the academy that is IMPOSSIBLE to get outside of this forum. Even with some ALO's who are head and shoulders above others; (Like Flieger - Steve), he can only affect a small number of applicants vs this forum. I know a LOT of ALO's and LOD's. Believe it or not, MOST of them don't even know about this forum. And the majority that do know about it, aren't involved with it and don't use it as a tool. (Personally, I think it threatens their EGO, that there's a source of information that is better than them).

Anyway; the point being, in November, December, January, .... April, that 2,277 number is probably much higher. But because of other offers from schools and change of mind, many applicants withdraw from the application process. Remember; the academy is NOT the #1 choice of schools from the MAJORITY of those 9706 applicants. It is safe to say it probably is of the 2,277. So looking back, if you received one of the 1190 appointments, you could say you were in the top 50% of qualified candidates. But at the TIME of the actual selection, there could have easily been 3,000-5,000 qualified applicants. Some become UN- Qualifed. Some didn't receive a nomination. Some withdrew from the process. Of my original slate of candidates, I've had 4 of them WITHDRAW from the process already. 2 of them I could almost guarantee would have been in the top 4-5 for receiving an appointment. So take those numbers with a grain of salt, and remember that they are figured AFTER the fact. Those numbers aren't the same in January.
EXCELLENT post!!!! Thank you so much! Seeing the numbers and the logic together helped a lot. It's great to get the perspectives of others on this forum. Obviously you, as an ALO (you are an ALO right?) have a completely different perspective on all of this than that of myself, a candidate, or even that of a parent, so your insight is extremely helpful!
 
I agree Baileydb...I find solace in this forum and look forward to reading new messages each day. I have learned so much from the many experienced staff, alum, and parents on this site. I don't let my DS know how much I stalk this page, so, you and I are in the same boat. I am enjoying the excitement of the "what if" as a proud mother who's son has made it this far! Since you were talking numbers, how many cadets at permitted at the Academy in total? Has anyone posted how many would be accepted for 2019?
Lol, Momof4, I too stalk this site far too much. I wish I was in a brick and mortar school so I wouldn't, but being in online school, it's too tempting to check the forum every few hours! I don't have Facebook or any of that stuff, so this is my only social media addiction! My hope is that for both of us next year, we can be part of the group of people who will be able to offer helpful advice to others after having received it ourselves ;)
 
My DS and I have been holding out from actually signing up on this forum - and I finally created an account so I can comment. Bailey - you are a dear and I am with you - I (and probably my DS) look forward to checking this forum daily. It has been so helpful, encouraging, informative, entertaining, etc.
Christcorp - you may as well be our ALO as our entire family has been quoting "Christcorp" isms since November. As Christcorp stated earlier with the numbers - the small percentage actually commenting on this forum are the serious ones, but it is unknown how many read these forums (and archived ones!) and do not actually create an account and comment! We've been on this forum over 3 months and I am just now signing up. We are VERY hopeful for an appointment - but we were completely prepared for the deferral. But our DS plan B is very much there - in fact we are flying him by himself in February to his Plan B school for a competitive scholarship!
 
Last edited:
My DS and I have been holding out from actually signing up on this forum - and I finally created an account so I can comment. Bailey - you are a dear and I am with you - I (and probably my DS) look forward to checking this forum daily. It has been so helpful, encouraging, informative, entertaining, etc.
Christcorp - you may as well be our ALO as our entire family has been quoting "Christcorp" isms since November. As Christcorp stated earlier with the numbers - the small percentage actually commenting on this forum are the serious ones, but it is unknown how many read these forums (and archived ones!) and do not actually create an account and comment! We've been on this forum over 3 months and I am just now signing up. We are VERY hopeful for an appointment - but we completely prepared for the deferral. But our DS plan B is very much there - in fact we are flying him by himself in February to his Plan B school for a competitive scholarship!
First off, thanks so much! Secondly, welcome to the forum! I was like you and read the forum for a good six months or so before actually joining. It is an amazing resource. I agree, Christcorp has been much more helpful and informative than my own ALO (NOT that I am bashing mine-he is also great!). Thank you to all posters on this forum who provide such amazing advice to all of us!
 
EXCELLENT post!!!! Thank you so much! Seeing the numbers and the logic together helped a lot. It's great to get the perspectives of others on this forum. Obviously you, as an ALO (you are an ALO right?) have a completely different perspective on all of this than that of myself, a candidate, or even that of a parent, so your insight is extremely helpful!

ALO? What's an ALO???

Just kidding. Yes, I'm an ALO. Mike. LOL!
 
EXCELLENT post!!!! Thank you so much! Seeing the numbers and the logic together helped a lot. It's great to get the perspectives of others on this forum. Obviously you, as an ALO (you are an ALO right?) have a completely different perspective on all of this than that of myself, a candidate, or even that of a parent, so your insight is extremely helpful!

ALO? What's an ALO???

Just kidding. Yes, I'm an ALO. Mike. LOL!
BWAHAHA! Good to know for sure now!
 
Back
Top