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Dadofcandidiate

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My son has received a nomination but we have not heard anything from WP? He completed the CFA at the Naval Academy and WP accepts those scores but they did not video his pull ups or push ups. We were told before the nomination that he was a 50/50 despite having real good scores, very active in leadership roles. Stupid question but doesn’t even nomination carry any weight with admissions besides being required. Dodmerb completed, interview completed. Everything except uploaded videos.
 
Nomination is not something that provides points to the candidate. No chance at appointment without one. Then, you need to wait to see if he wins slate, unless he is a principal nominee, or numbered alternate, or if he comes off the NWL. The odds and percentages are imprecise when it comes to the particular candidate. Get ready for a long wait but hopefully it won’t be long for your DS. By the way, DS should check with RC whether a video needs to be uploaded even though CFA was taken at NASS.
 
I'm unclear, did your candidate upload his CFA vids to USMA? That is how WP handles it. The candidate records and uploads his CFA assessments to his/her candidate portal.
 
3q with multiple nominations is still a 50/50 toss. There will be a 1,000 qualified with one or more nominations that get TWEs.
 
So, it is a marathon not a sprint. Most applicants will receive a decision between mid-January and late-April. There may be months with no update or correspondence. Your child is Schroedinger's Candidate: could be accepted, could be denied. No way to tell.
 
It should be clarified that 3Q + Nomination status is NOT a 50% chance for appointment.
 
Last edited:
Flevvy said:
It should be clarified that 3Q + Nomination status is NOT a 50% chance for appointment. There are too many variables for that to even be realistic.
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Approximately 50% of the 3q plus nom get appointments.

Obviously any one candidate may have closer to 100% based on their individual WCS while others have closer to 0%. The average is 50% give or take 10 percent in any given year based on stats I have seen.
 
A1Janitor said:
Approximately 50% of the 3q plus nom get appointments.
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it's actually closer to 33-35% or so. there are usually about 3300 candidates who are 3Q with a nom, competing for about 1350 offers of appointment, which is about 40%. however, that includes about 320 current NAPS and Foundation candidates, who are essentially guaranteed a spot. if you remove them, you get about 2980 competing for 1030 spots, or about 34%.
 
A6E Dad said:
it's actually closer to 33-35% or so. there are usually about 3300 candidates who are 3Q with a nom, competing for about 1350 offers of appointment, which is about 40%. however, that includes about 320 current NAPS and Foundation candidates, who are essentially guaranteed a spot. if you remove them, you get about 2980 competing for 1030 spots, or about 34%.
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I did a quick search for various years and saw the 3q anywhere between 2400 and 3000. So I said 50% give or take 10%.

Sloppy on my part.

I assume the NAPS and Foindation candidates are included in appointments and 3Q - so I am not sure how that changes the calculations.
 
Dadofcandidiate said:
My son has received a nomination but we have not heard anything from WP? He completed the CFA at the Naval Academy and WP accepts those scores but they did not video his pull ups or push ups. We were told before the nomination that he was a 50/50 despite having real good scores, very active in leadership roles. Stupid question but doesn’t even nomination carry any weight with admissions besides being required. Dodmerb completed, interview completed. Everything except uploaded videos.
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There are threads about how to go about videoing if you didn't the first time around. I think it was something like send a video of DS doing the number of reps he originally did, along with following directions of a sign with statement of candidate ID, etc. I imagine the same proctor should also be visible. Regardless, search it up to figure out exactly, since my memory may not be accurate.
 
So it sounds like something like the below:

1. LOA+ 3Q + Nom = 100% Chance (1/1: you are not competing against anyone else)
2. 3Q +Competitive Slate Nom= 10% Chance to be the MOC slate winner (1/10: you are competing against 9 others on your slate)

If not winner of MOC slate, then you go on the NWL
3. NWL Winner = 29% Chance (294/1,011 candidates who do not win MOC Slate, not LOA, not USMAPS, not prior military, Foreign Exchange Cadet, etc.. )

I deduced the 294/1,011 figure from looking at the 2023 candidate profile doc.

Lots of speculation and past performance does not guarantee future returns..
 
Think that is a pretty good summary though
 
Unfortunately % and probability aren’t the same thing. Your model doesn’t account for sex, race, military status, left handedness or a myriad of other factors. Bottom line is 3q plus nom you are in the fight but still no better than a dice roll
 
A1Janitor said:
I sometimes forget to look at what forum I am in. I look at new topics. :)
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Now that I know what forum I am in ... the class profile for West Point (didn’t see a year) says 2200 are triple qualified and 1200 of them are appointed.
 
For "normal" candidates there are three probabilities to calculate:
  1. Odds of winning a slate
  2. Odds of winning one of the 150 Qualified Alternate appointments from the NWL in order of merit based on WCS score
  3. Odds of appointment as an Additional Appointee from the NWL which may be out of order of merit
 
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