Is it possible? Yes. Would I bank on it? No.
Why would any SA pay all of that money to educate/train you for 4 yrs and get nothing out of it in return if you are going to go AF? Remember, what if 25% of the cadets felt that same way...can you imagine how it would mess up their AD manpower goals, thinking 1000 would go AD, but instead 750 do, and meanwhile the AFA has their 1000, and now 250 more they never planned for four yrs ago are coming on line.
If you want AF, than you have other options besides the AFA. AFROTC, and OTS. If you want to be in the Navy, go Navy, but don't walk in day one at USNA saying/thinking in 4 yrs from now I will be commissioned ADAF as if it is 100% sure.
How do you think that USNA interview is going to look when they ask you what do you want to be in the Navy?
Well sir, actually, I want to be in the AF and was hoping that I could cross commission.
Granted, I am sure you wouldn't say that, but interviews exist to weed that information out, and if your heart isn't into it, I am betting it will be seen through the interview.
This is your life, not theirs. It will be you attending that SA. It is you that will be serving those 5 yrs., not them. 9 yrs of your life, are you willing to take the risk that it won't end wearing AF blues? If so, take the risk. If not, re-think it.
Every yr there are a few that x-commission, but when you do the math, that % is very small. The decision is based on what I illustrated earlier AF manpower needs. They have goals to be met for every yr group. It is done long term, yrs out. They not only know how many are coming out for AFA, but also AFROTC where they have spent money training cadets for yrs. Their only way to close that pipeline quickly for a specific yr group is OTS without losing their investment. An AFROTC cadet that attends Duke or UNCCH OOS on Type 1 scholarship is about a 100K investment.
If I were you and really only wanted AF, I would apply AFA, and AFROTC scholarship. If you don't get the BFE, but get a scholarship, re-apply next yr for the AFA. Financially you won't be too bad off for that 1 yr., if at all; depending if you get college merit scholarships. Yes, you would commission 1 yr later, but still 1 yr later in the branch you wanted to be in, is better than 9 yrs in the branch you didn't want to be in.
