This is really a no win question. Every state has people ask the same question. I've got to tell you that pretty much every state is competitive. The only thing that may have a little bit of influence on nominations and chances, is what district do you live in; is there a military base near by, and does the population look fondly of the military? I.e. If you live in an area not too fond of the military; EXAMPLE: Berkley California (Not saying they are or not; no stereotyping here.just an example). And you are applying for a nomination. You could easily find yourself as one of the only applicants for your representative. Therefor, your chances of a nomination go up tremendously. On the other hand; if you live in an area like: EXAMPLE: San Antonio tx; where there a number of air force bases around; and people think very highly of the air force; you may find 100 applicants trying to get a nomination from 1 representative. Or; an entire state like Wyoming which ONLY HAS 1 REPRESENTATIVE. But the state is very pro-military; yet very traditional ranching, farming, family. Then you have maybe only 19 applicants. (That's how many were applying for Class of 2012); yet they all have to compete with 1 representative.
So, to answer your question is difficult. If you have the grades, sports, ranking, activities, resume, etc... then you will have a great chance no matter where you live. If you fall into the "Average" category; in Nevada; then it depends on the district you live in. If you are around Nellis Air Force base; with a lot of pro-military people; you might find a lot of competition. If you're further out by Reno; you might find it's easier. MOST Representatives post on their web sites who they've nominated to the academies and how many are there currently. You might find that your rep doesn't get a lot of applications. Best of luck. Mike....