Candidates and their parents who happen to find this forum should use it as a resource and only 1 data point. The same basic questions get asked every year, so a better use of one's time would be to search back over older threads and see what was discussed the last time a particular topic came up, rather then starting new threads on the same topics each year. In a relatively short period of time, you can see the various opinions that have been previously provided. It appears that some people stumble upon this forum and make no effort to research prior posts.
Some participants offer better advice then others, that is reality on any internet forum. You have to decide who knows what they are talking about and who merely likes to sound like they do. Much like that recent TV commercial, just because someone posts something on the internet doesn't guarantee it is true. Some probably embellish their accomplisments, but we really have no way to prove/disprove that.
All of the variations on the 'what are my chances' threads are a waste of time since there are elements of the application no one here can evaluate. We won't ever get to interview you so we can't possibly determine how your MOC interviews will go or even what critique your teachers may have provided. I am sure everyone thinks they are the perfect student, but teachers who have had years of experience may see it differently. Some candidates might have amazing stats on paper, but get terrible teacher evaluations and/or might do poorly in their MOC interview. We simply have no way to judge that.
Dwelling on satistics, percentages and probabilites won't increase your chances of getting an appointment. However, studying for your next exam or working to improve your sports performance will.