I was on the forums this time last year trying to determine my son's chances and asking many of the same questions I see here.
I'm not saying our experience is typical, but my son is now a Plebe at the Academy for the Class of 2016. I've learned one thing, however, nothing about the process "on the outside" is logical to our eyes. The Admissions Board, however, does have a process that I still don't understand.
My son completed his application process in early August, was notified he was 3Q's by his BGO in Sept., and received a Nomination in December from a Senator who didn't interview him or communicate in any way, other than to send that glorious letter.
His Congressional Rep, on the other hand, interviewed him twice and required two rounds of essays. His Nomination came on January 31st. (The last possible day). My son received his appointment on Feb. 8.
My son's CFA results were average, ACT was Comp. 30, 34/26 Eng/Math, Eagle Scout, Cross-country runner, speech, debate, FBLA, band, Boy's State, concert choir, etc..., but the one comment that I recall from his Cong. Rep. was that he was a pain in the butt during the process and the Rep. actually liked the persistence. He did
In talking with other parents, it seems there is no real rhyme or reason to the process, but your son/daughter should position himself or herself as best as possible.
The worst part of the process, by far, was the waiting and the daily trips to the mailbox. It really wore him down. He was set on the Navy and received an NROTC scholarship, but didn't apply to any other Service Academy. He is Navy all the way.
Everything was worth the effort though, as I watched him begin the transformation in I-Day on June 28 and saw the incredible change in my son on Plebe Parent's Weekend last week.
Good luck to you all!
P.S. He applied for STEM his junior year and was declined, but two weeks later received an invitation for a CVW. He did attend the CVW and also attended NASS the summer between his junior and senior year of HS. He also attended every briefing in our area (and some outside of our area).