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mdn18 - I think you are right. USNA doesn't put out the number of 'qualified' (3Q) applicants but USMA does and it shouldn't be too much different b/n the academies. For USMA class of 2018 - 4,050 Nominated; 2,219 Qualified, 1,212 Admitted. Applying these numbers to USNA - there are around 6,400 nominations given out from all sources each year which implies around ~1.6 nominations per person (~6,400 total nominations for ~4,000 nominees) - I think that makes sense also if you look at the appointments thread for 2019 or for 2018 you'll see many people with 2 appointments and some with more than 2.

So, ~2,000 qualified and ~1,000 accepted is probably in the ball park. However, accepted number is 85 - 90% of those who were actually offered admission so expect 1,100 - 1,200 offers for a targeted class size of 1,000. That would mean slightly less than a 30% chance of getting an offer of admission for all of those nominated (~1,150 / ~4,000).

Having said all of that...don't stress the probabilities. Try to enjoy senior year - it goes by very quickly for the kids and for the parents! It feels like just a blink of the eye since we were trying to remain calm one year ago! Good luck!

Thanks, but I'm a college freshman now! :wink::thumb:

Also, by the way, just discovered that I was nominated to USNA and USMMA by my MOC!!!! :groupwave:
 
Astef67, I have been wondering the same thing since finding out DS has been nominated by his Senator and district MOC. It has to be beneficial is some regard I would imagine. But beyond that thought I know nothing :smile:
 
Yes! The more nominations the better. That's because you have a better chance/ability of being slotted to an open spot.
 
Just as a follow-up with my post #7, I contacted the Academy admissions officer for our area and wanted to verify my figures. My figures were off and here is the reply: "Out of the 15-19,000 preliminary applications we receive each year, only about 14,000 become official candidates. Out of our ~14,000 candidates, approximately 4,000 are triple qualified. Although we have about 4,000 qualified candidates, less than 3,000 receive nominations. Less than 3,000 candidates are triple qualified WITH a nomination and eligible to compete for an offer."

So that would make the famous percentage around 1500/3000 or 50%. So I guess you could say if you are 3Q'ed and nominated you either make it or don't.

However, that whole exercise totally ignores the very real situation that a big chunk of those candidates are broken down in varying MOC state "pools" in which your chances vary wildly due to population, timing, and personal competition within that pool.

Ah, when it comes to what's-my-chances-questions, remember Marisa Tomei in "My Cousin Vinnie" when she was on the witness stand? And Joe Pesci asks her about the skid marks of a Buick Skylark? And she says.........?
 
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