Pentagon Budget Slash?

If you have those stats, please post. That will give us an Apple/Apple comparision.

If you take 1974-1975 (at the end of Vietnam war) as a baseline;
ROTC was graduating 2500+/-
OCS was graduating 4500+/-
West Point is fixed at about 1000/yr

Late 60's - early '70's OCS was at 6000+/-/yr and ROTC was 4000+/-/yr

During the war probably a couple battlefield commissions as well

Link
 
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^ oK, then your point is well made. The ratio of USMA-commissioned Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs relative to their annual commissioning numbers is much higher than the ratio out of AROTC.

That begs the next question then: What is the average service career of a USMA commissioned officer compared to an AROTC commissioned officer? That would be intersting to know. We could then adjust the ratios removing those who entered ROTC with the intention of satisfying just their minimum contracted commitment, vs. those that intended to make a career of the Army. What is the pre-commissioning career intention of the average USMA cadet, vs. the average AROTC cadet?

Too many variables!!
 
Academies have a "network" you don't get in an ROTC or OCS program. It runs in classes, the service, and across services lines to service academies in general.
 
What is the average service career of a USMA commissioned officer compared to an AROTC commissioned officer? That would be intersting to know. We could then adjust the ratios removing those who entered ROTC with the intention of satisfying just their minimum contracted commitment, vs. those that intended to make a career of the Army. What is the pre-commissioning career intention of the average USMA cadet, vs. the average AROTC cadet?

It's been studied;
LINK

LINK

LINK
Nothing very conclusive though.
 
First off it should always be made perfectly clear that every branch operates differently.

For ex: the AF may RIF yr group 06-08, but at the same time the Army hits 09-11.

It is their needs that determine the system.

The same is true for things like promotion or payback for pilot training.

On top of that the AF can change their mind anytime they want.

Back in the early 90's the AF messed with pilot commitment every yr. You could see one guy with 8 yrs, the guy 1 yr younger with 9, the guy 1 yr younger than him with 7, and the guy still 1 yr younger with 10. It all comes down to strategic personnel planning and that is MPC!

It changes and you are locked to what you signed up for, it doesn't float up or down. You signed for 8 and it drops next yr to 7 you are SOL. Signed up for 8 and the next yr it goes to 9, you count your blessings.

This is also true for bonuses...if they decide to increase the bonus by 50% for longetivity, they do not re-calculate your bonus to the new one. It is what you got when you got it.

Now for the RIF issue, SA v ROTC that is the thing in the early 2000's the AF decided to say nobody was safe until they received their regular commissioning, which is at the 7 yr marker. However, the forces that be came back yrs later and went to the system that was in place when Bullet entered the AF...ROTC get reserve and AFA get Regular commissionings upon graduation.

By law, at least the last I was told. If a RIF is to occur, they must hit the Reserve commissions 1st, before they whittle away at the Regular commissions, in other terms SA grads.

AD AF with ROTC commissions go AD operationally, the only way when you see them in uniform to tell who is ROTC and who is AFA is by looking at their hand for their knocker. They both go to war, they both get fighters, or JAG or SP, etc. They both get to shop on base, they both get housing and the same TLA. They live side by side as equals.

The Army ROTC program that has been explained to me is not that way. ROTC cadets do not necessarily go AD operationally. They have other options, so that needs to be placed into the equation if you are going AROTC.

LITS is correct the AF is like the CG when it comes to promotion. If you are a ROTC commission, around the 7 yr point you will meet a board to determine if you should get a "regular" commission. This is when you are no longer considered Reserve AD, but now Regular like an SA grad. If you do not get one than you can kiss goodbye any thought of making O4 because the AF has stated that they don't want you since they didn't offer you that opportunity.

It doesn't matter for O3 because unless you did something bad(DUI comes to mind), you will make O3.

Now again regarding the slashing of the budget, the facts have not changed.

The Army and the Marines have been told to cut X amt of officers.

Both branches are going to do a 5 yr strategic plan regarding personnel. They are going to plot out with the infor they know now how many in each yr group up to that 20+ yr pt who will stay through 2015.

If they see that yr group 10 is bloated, especially in Maintenance, than that is going to be the group they put up on the block.

The important things to understand are this:

1. They can make precision cuts...i.e. yr 10 Maintenance or they can say the whole yr group is bloated and cut everyone.

~~~Again in the 92 AF RIF it was yr group 85/86 and 95% were cut. There were guys that just reported to FWIC (think Top Gun Movie) and 3 days later handed separation papers, because fliers were not immune.

2. The economy is going to play into this equation. VSP (severance packages if you leave voluntarily) can be very enticing if the economy is rebounding.

~~~ We had a friend who voluntarily left because the paycheck was = to 2 yrs of his salary. He had a newborn that was born during DS and 6 months old before he ever held her. He was willing to take the chance because the separation packet was too attractive to turn down.

~~~ Economy picks up in 12. 13 or 14, than you will see people diving again after their initial commitment is done. That means the Company grade ratio will be back in line and if they have to RIF it will be a precision cut impacting a small amount of potential officers.

3. Every branch is going to want to maintain an officer to enlisted ratio, and a ratio among those ranks.

NOT ONE OF US on this board is privy to those stats. It is a crap shoot, where you hope for the best and expect the worst.

4. RIF is not their only option, SERB and passing over for promotion also exist.


Our DS is AFROTC and honestly, I am not worried for him because his timing has worked out. However, I will not lie or sugar coat the fact that it is very apparent in the AFROTC world right now that the 2 yr groups before him were hit hard since they cut cadets with scholarships loose. They also are showing signs of weeding out for his yr group because his group had the lowest amount of cadets attending summer training as a C200 from a nationalistic standpoint. AGAIN, AFROTC conducts every board starting at scholarship awards on a nationalistic level...they do not care where you attend college, it is a point system across the board for everyone in your yr group. Above it you get it, below and it is a too bad, too sad letter.

My final parting to cadets and parents:

Don't wrap yourself up in this issue, so much can change in the world and in your life.

If you spend time wrapping yourself up in it you will miss the best parts of life. You will also be committed to a looney bin once they go AD. Just Believe! Go with the flow wherever it takes you, and no matter where it does take you than believe that this was the fate of the path.

I love my in laws, but they spent their life always worried about where we would move next, or Bullet's promotions, or getting sent somewhere dangerous.

They never took the time to see how happy he was and that he was just fine riding the roller coaster regarding where it would take him next.

Take the time to ride the ride with them. There will be highs and lows, even in college as a ROTC cadet (somebody will get a job they wanted, they got nailed for their uniform... they will get a great job unexpectedly and the CC will use them as an example of perfection).

ROTC is not unlike the SAs, and the reason why is they all want to be the best that can be.
 
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My final parting to cadets and parents:

Don't wrap yourself up in this issue, so much can change in the world and in your life.

If you spend time wrapping yourself up in it you will miss the best parts of life. You will also be committed to a looney bin once they go AD. Just Believe! Go with the flow wherever it takes you, and no matter where it does take you than believe that this was the fate of the path.

I love my in laws, but they spent their life always worried about where we would move next, or Bullet's promotions, or getting sent somewhere dangerous.

They never took the time to see how happy he was and that he was just fine riding the roller coaster regarding where it would take him next.

Take the time to ride the ride with them. There will be highs and lows, even in college as a ROTC cadet (somebody will get a job they wanted, they got nailed for their uniform... they will get a great job unexpectedly and the CC will use them as an example of perfection).

ROTC is not unlike the SAs, and the reason why is they all want to be the best that can be.

I do not understand all the ins/outs of the Army or AF, but life is life. Whether this age group of kids is trying to be officers, teachers, business people, police or fire or any other career path - THE WORLD HAS CHANGED. Nothing is written in stone and everything beyond your control can make you crazy if you let it. My personal facebook page quote is simply this: Life is not about waiting for the storms to pass, its about learning to dance in the rain - and dodge as much lightning as you can.:thumb: DS wants a career as an ARMY officer, he has not applied for any other branch, understood that WP with all its glory and connections was probably beyond his reach (he was invited to a few informational meetings and to visit but chose not to pursue it), his choice, his dream, his goals-his mistakes. I am glad you all have the knowledge to share with us, but in the long run "the ride" will go were it wants.:wink:
 
in the long run "the ride" will go were it wants

He will be very successful in whatever path he chooses because you will be the voice of reason when it comes to the good, bad and ugly.

That's the thing!
 
Pima

He will be very successful in whatever path he chooses because you will be the voice of reason when it comes to the good, bad and ugly.

That's the thing!

Thanks for the kind thought. It is difficult to help young people today negotiate a path for their future. Everything is so competitive and nothing is guaranteed (well, 'cept death and taxes:rolleyes:) DS has read this thread and understands what some of this could mean to his goals. He's even bookmarked some of the links provided. Glad he's a bright boy and has the raw material needed to play the games and ride the ride.
 
Good for him. Knowledge and understanding are the key to navigating these waters.

The more he understands the more flexible he will become if his true goal is to be an Army officer in whatever field they place him in.

If his goal is to only be a Cobra pilot or a Ranger, that rigidity will hurt him when they say you can't do that because he never planned for the what if, and now he will resent being forced to do the what if.
 
updating post #22 above re: Joint Chiefs Chairmen that came through Academy vs. ROTC or OCS. I looked at the last 10 Joint Chiefs Chairmen, and their commissioning source is as follows:

Army:
- General Vessey, 10th Chairman, Field Commission
- General Powell, 12th Chairman, ROTC ( City College of New York)
- Generall Shalikashvili, 13th Chairman, OCS
- General Shelton, 14th Chairman ROTC (North Carolina St.)

Air Force:
- General Jones, 9th Chairman, ROTC (Roswell Flying School)
- General Myers, 15th Chairman, ROTC (Kansas St.)

Navy/Marines:
- Admiral Crowe, 11th Chairman, Naval Academy
- Admiral Jeremiah (Acting), ROTC (Oregon St.)
- General Pace, 16th Chairman, Naval Academy
- Admiral Mullen, 17th Chairman, Naval Academy

So, I upon closer inspection, it appears that if an Army or Air Force officer has his/her eyes on the Chairman, Joint Chiefs billet, they had better avoid the Academies and go ROTC as the best bet. On the other hand, it appears to be an almost prerequisite for a Naval Officer :) Isn't it fascinating what you can conclude from a limited set of data?
 
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There's a funny thing about data, It all depends on how you look at the numbers. Don't forget Colin Powell, he was ROTC as well. One thing to take into account is that all the Chairmans listed above graduated from ROTC 30 or so years ago. We won't know how the trend will follow either ROTC or the Academy until the newly commisioned officers reach time in service.

It does seem to support the statement that once commisioned there is no great advantage of one over the other....except maybe the Navy but then they always seem to sail a different course.
 
:biggrin:Continuing the silliness...

Army Chief of Staff's from Omar Bradley untill today
17 out of 22 USMA, but looks like ROTC is gaining in recent years

1. George W. Casey, Jr. Georgetown ROTC
2. Peter J. Schoomaker University of Wyoming ROTC
3. Eric K Shinseki USMA
4. Dennis J Reimer USMA
5. Gordon R Sullivan Norwich University ROTC
6. Carl E Vuono USMA
7. John A Wickham USMA
8. Edward C Meyer USMA
9. Bernard W Rogers USMA
10. Frederick C Weyand UC Berkeley ROTC
11. Creighton W Abrams USMA
12. Bruce P USMA
13. William C Westmoreland USMA
14. Harold K Johnson USMA
15. Earle G Wheeler USMA
16. George H Decker Lafayette College
17. Lyman L Lemnitzer USMA
18. Lyman L Lemnitzer USMA
19. Maxwell D "Max" Taylor USMA
20. Matthew B Ridgway USMA
21. Joseph L Collins USMA
22. Omar N Bradley USMA
 
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Good to hear... I was troubled by Pima's statement about RIF preference for Academy vs. AFROTC. Last I wondered about the career advantages of Academy vs. ROTC, I found:

- About half of the Chairmen of the Joint Chiefs from Army were commissioned through ROTC or OCS
- Navy Chairmen were indeed mostly from the Academy
- Air Force, same as Army.

So that put to rest for me the false notion that the Academy offers superior career advancement in Army and Air Force, with the jury still out on Navy. In fact, you can well make the argument that ROTC grads from academically demanding institutions (let's just call that the USNWR top 100 Unis) have the advantage of learning the nuances of attaining success OUTSIDE a well articulated chain of command -- a skill that is invaluable the higher up one goes in any organization, military included.

I believe the original statements only state that in times of budgetary cutback, the ax will fall on OTS, ROTC, and last the Academies. Not that one is better than the other. I believe for the percent of academy grads that enter the services each year versus ROTC and OCS, they receive a larger percentage of promotions as you move up the food chain. If you go with 1000 academy, 2500 ROTC, 2500 OCS. That would make an entering class of 17% academy, 42% ROTC, 42% OCS. I would like to know with 17% entering, what percentage of field grade and above are academy grades. I am betting on over 50%? Question if you want to make General or Chairman of the Joint chief which way should you go?
 
I was told by a PMS today that he thinks the ROTC will be awarding more in-State scholarships in future to save money.
 
:biggrin:Continuing the silliness...

Army Chief of Staff's from Omar Bradley untill today
17 out of 22 USMA, but looks like ROTC is gaining in recent years

1. George W. Casey, Jr. Georgetown ROTC
2. Peter J. Schoomaker University of Wyoming ROTC
3. Eric K Shinseki USMA
4. Dennis J Reimer USMA
5. Gordon R Sullivan Norwich University ROTC
6. Carl E Vuono USMA
7. John A Wickham USMA
8. Edward C Meyer USMA
9. Bernard W Rogers USMA
10. Frederick C Weyand UC Berkeley ROTC
11. Creighton W Abrams USMA
12. Bruce P USMA
13. William C Westmoreland USMA
14. Harold K Johnson USMA
15. Earle G Wheeler USMA
16. George H Decker Lafayette College
17. Lyman L Lemnitzer USMA
18. Lyman L Lemnitzer USMA
19. Maxwell D "Max" Taylor USMA
20. Matthew B Ridgway USMA
21. Joseph L Collins USMA
22. Omar N Bradley USMA

The Norwich crew is very proud of our General Sullivan!! Also, I was surprised to see Berkeley on this esteemed list. When my son mentioned to the USMA interview panel (in connection with his MOC nom) that he had visited UC-Berkeley and was applying for admission there, they all busted out in uncontrollable laughing!! My boy still got the nom from that MOC, though, and is now 3Q'd for USMA (he must have impressed them with his brazenness of mentioning UC-Berkeley during his interview).:thumb:

By the way, no fair counting Lemnitzer twice!
 
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