Appointments are the area where it gets confusing because 75% sounds great, yet at the same time you need to comprehend the system.
EX: A candidate with 4 noms from the same state as a candidate with 1 nom, probably has a greater chance of an apptmt, because before he/she hits the NWL they had 4 slates to get a direct apptmt.
The candidate with 1 nom, has 1 chance before the NWL.
That is not to say the 1 nom is less likely to get in, just to say why everyone says get every nom possible.
You can have 4 noms and still not get in.
WCS matters for each and every slate. A cadet with a lower WCS on a different slate can get in while the higher WCS candidate gets the thin envelope.
Stats matter, but when it comes to the AFA, geographics matter too.
They do not draw a line from a national perspective at 75%...above in, below out. Geographic 1st, National 2nd.
In VA, 75% do get the apptmt with only 1 nom, because when they are placed into the pool, their WCS is high enough on the list to be above the live. It isn't uncommon for a slate of 10 to have 9 or 10 of them get in. Now if you are from Idaho, with 1 nom, the odds probably decrease dramatically. (NO offense to ID).
It really matters on how competitive you are from a WCS.
If I were you the question would be do the MOCs hand out more than 1 nom...aka talk, because if they do and you only got 1, the next question is how will you fare against other candidates from your state that got every MOC available?