The only guarantee that has remained constant over the last 70 years or so since the end of WWII in regards to "where will the next fight be and who will we fight" predictions is that no one has been able to accurately predict it. Korea, Vietnam, Somalia, Kuwait? Most Americans had never even heard of those places, or could have been able to point them out on a map, before they suddenly and violently grabbed our attention. Military plans? Just that, plans based on speculation on different factors for different scenarios.
What IS predictable is that the next war is almost never like the last war; what worked then or reigns supreme now may not be the best solution tomorrow. A VERY interesting book to read is America's First Battles, which describes the details of the first major battle Americans fought in our history of conflict as a nation. The underlying theme is that usually America goes into war unprepared for the conflict initially, either with outdated tactics or reliance on lessons learned from previous wars that don't work in the current conflict. Result? We typically had our butts handed to us. Only during this past generation or two, where we've emphasized to our military leadership the importance of these lessons through education and training, and molded our Generals to plan for the current situation or the unexpected, has our track record improved. Like I said, an interesting read.
YOUR jobs as future leaders in our Nation's military is to understand this. We want leaders who THINK. Understand that you may be caught up in conflicts you never anticipated, in places you never thought you'd be fighting in, against foes you never expected when you roamed the halls of the academies. All I can say is, like a good boy scout, "Be Prepared", and that means being ready for just about anything. Your troops, your peers, your superiors, and your Nation NEEDS this from you...
