Predictions are not always accurate

Discussion in 'ROTC' started by Jcleppe, Jul 9, 2015.

  1. Jcleppe

    Jcleppe 5-Year Member

    Feb 10, 2010
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    Over the years we often make predictions about the future of ROTC, either positive or negative, based on current information. It's interesting to see sometimes if those predictions come close to being true. I was searching for something and this old post came up from Nov. 2011 when cadets had just found out their branches. It's interesting to see just how different the outcome was versus what was predicted at the time.

    To be fair the following post was written by Dunninla.

    "This past Year Group 2011, 60% of the ROTC commissionees earned AD... there were probably 15% whose first choice actually was Reserves or Guard, though, so let's say:

    60% AD
    25% wanted AD but didn't qualify via OML
    15% would have qualified AD (including #1 on YG 2011's OML) but chose Reserves/Guard

    I am told that if current trends continue, it will be, for YG 2015:

    40% AD
    45% will want AD but won't qualify via OML
    15% would have qualified AD but will choose Reserves/Guard"

    The actual results for the class of 2015 was very different then predicted.

    52% of the total number of ROTC cadets received AD
    78% of the cadets that wanted AD received it, 22% that wanted AD did not make the cutoff.

    It's impossible to know the percentage of cadets that chose Reserve/NG that would have made the AD cutoff without knowing their OML scores.

    So realize that while we will all make predictions for the future, it's very hard to try and second guess the Army and their decision making process. Just this last year we all were predicting that cadets will start changing or choosing majors in school that would allow them to utilize the new Special Branching Program, sounded like a good prediction. That is until they scrapped the whole program after just one year by changing the OML points.

    Control what you can control at the moment, don't make decisions based on what you think might happen next blink and it all could change.

    Study hard and keep good grades, keep physically fit, participate fully in the program, and keep your nose clean, do this and you'll give yourself many good opportunities.The rest is out of your hands.
  2. NorwichDad

    NorwichDad 5-Year Member

    Apr 6, 2010
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    Very well said
  3. nofodad

    nofodad 5-Year Member

    Dec 21, 2011
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    Could not agree DS' battalion was LDAC,LDAC,LDAC!! For two years....then pffft, no more LDAC. Adapt...adapt...adapt.

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